Commercial property research and statistics

[Perp]

What's the best way to find out rental levels, vacancy rates, growth forecasts, etc for industrial, office, and retail property? There are plenty of sources that I know of for this information with regard to residential property, but I'm wondering what the best sources are for commercial property, please.

Thus far my research has been limited to calling agents in the area and asking their opinion, and asking other investors. But I'm thinking that there must be a more scientific way of doing it.

 

[thedon]

Let me know to please as I've just started my first venture into commercial.

Only site I've found for WA is realcommercial.com.au for whats on the market.

By the way, Perth market seems to have a lot of demand in the CBD still left in it, we've had lots of enquires about leasing the newly purchased premises, and I feel lots of rent increases on the way judging by the rents being asked at moment.


Don

 

[Francesca C]

I would love to know more about researching commercial property statistics too! doesnt seem to be as much out there as resi.

Someone out there must be savvy at it??????????

 

[Perp]

*BUMP* Thought I'd try again...

Does anything like "Residex for commercial properties" exist?

Don't valuers use statistics to determine average rental rates per square metre and capitalisation rates? If so, is this entirely based upon the leases that pass through their offices, or is there a central database? If the latter, is there any way that we can get access?

 

[keithj]

What's the best way to find out rental levels, vacancy rates, growth forecasts, etc for industrial, office, and retail property? There are plenty of sources that I know of for this information with regard to residential property, but I'm wondering what the best sources are for commercial property, please.

Try the April HTW Review & previous ones.
Have you read annual reports & updates for the various LPTs - they're good for background info and to see what the professionals are doing. The updates usually have an outlook section.
Have you considered buying LPTs directly ?

 

[yo yo ma]

I don't know the answer but I'm glad you changed fonts

 

[bent]

Try the free research from the major commercial RE agencies - Jones Lang LaSalle, CBRE, Colliers etc.

 

[Dazz]

Does anything like "Residex for commercial properties" exist?

To the best of my knowledge, no. But then that's half the fun of playing in this pond. There's bugger all info. If you don't do thorough DD, you normally get taken for a ride, but then of course the flip side of that is, that you sometimes come across screaming bargains, and if you now your stuff and pounce early, sometimes you can "kill the pig".

Don't valuers use statistics to determine average rental rates per square metre and capitalisation rates?

Most of their valuations come from just comparable sales in the area.

Trouble is Tracey, the commercial world is so diversified, that sometimes it might be a stand alone value. For example, in the past 6 months in any given area, there may have been five significant sales on which to base your valuation....

An abandoned abbatoir on a huge development site with contamination issues
An old and tired small strip corner shopping complex with a few apartments on top
A light industrial distribution centre in some swanky technology park
A brand spanking new strata office block with long term installed tenant and finally,
A busy petrol station on a prominent corner of a busy highway

Now, you are scanning the adverts and notice that the local McDonalds outlet is up for sale by Expressions of Interest or Offers to Purchase. They want as much cash out of you as possible....and everything is secret secret about the price. What are you going to do ?? Even if you have access to the database, which one - if any, are you going to use to base your calculations ??

There's so many factors at play, that it's not the same as buying houses in one particular street where you can look up and say.....ah yes, now there's been five sales in this street in the past six months, ranging from x to y, and we've seen the conditions of the houses and they all slot in. Doing that, you may be able to narrow your offer down to +/- 20K. With your McD branch, you might be +/- 200K or more. This is where you miss out if you try and be smart and underbid, or you get ripped off if you overbid.

All I can say it's not easy, especially when you are learning the ropes.

is there any way that we can get access?

As highlighted above, I don't think one exists....but even if it did, it would only be of limited use to you given the large variety of what's on offer.

Hope that helps a bit.

 

[westie]

all of the above messages would indicate to me:-
a) if you specialise in an area or suburb,
b) keep your own records of every sale and lease within your area,
you would then have a considerable advantage over other buyers/sellers as to the fair market value within your chosen suburb/town.

Any commercial valuers reading this?
They seem to tap into these records and produce on demand (for a fee of course). Where are they/you pulling your records from? In bulk or manually?

 

[markp]

Try the April HTW Review & previous ones.
Have you read annual reports & updates for the various LPTs - they're good for background info and to see what the professionals are doing. The updates usually have an outlook section.
Have you considered buying LPTs directly ?

What LPTs do you suggest? No not buying just looking thanks.

 

[markp]

I forgot to suggest The Property Concil of Australia.

 

[kukuuk]

Lot of UK commercial property statistics and information can get from here. upto date information - www. kingsturge.co.uk/research/

 

[Perp]

I've done some more searching, and now that I've found it, I'm surprised that nobody else has yet mentioned Commercial Property Monitor. Their subscriber service would seem to offer exactly what I've been seeking.

Sales and leasing data for the entire nation, and a comprehensive database of recent valuations for comparison. What a dream!

I note that a national subscription is $2850 pa for an individual, but you can get a corporate subscription with 20 logins for $6900 pa. If I could get 20 people interested, that would be $345 each, and IMHO, well worthwhile for anybody who operates in the commercial/industrial arena. Even if I only get 10 and we paid $690 pa each, I can't believe that this wouldn't pay for itself.

If there's anybody who might be interested in getting together to share a corporate subscription, please PM me.

 

[handyandy]

Hi Ozperp

The National subscription does not appear to include the Valuation subscription (but not sure).

Have you actually reviewed the data that they have available?

I just had a look around their site and it looks very amateurish and leaves me doubting that they have as large a database that they purport to have. Without that extensive database the stats etc are going to be pretty useless.

As an example, looking at their sales data they come up with 4 pages of 'for sales - industrials' in Sydney with a lot of the properties I know are around not listed.

Cheers

 

[Perp]

The National subscription does not appear to include the Valuation subscription (but not sure).

On their webpage: "National Corporate subscribers receive 20 user logins and the Valuation Benchmarks module". But I will confirm.

Have you actually reviewed the data that they have available?

No, I haven't . As is my tendency, I get over-enthusiastic and jump in, then research.

I was comforted by the fact that I know this brand - I've seen CPM advertising a lot and referred to a lot - but I didn't know they were commercial property statistics providers.

I will contact them and ask some probing questions and share their responses with you.

 

[Aaron Sice]

it's hard and a bit time consuming, but i open up 2 pages whenever i look at realestate.com.au or realcommercial.com.au.

one is open at the "buy" page, the other is at the "rent" page, so i can do direct comparisons.

just last night i noticed an office in freo getting WAY under market rent - but was unsure what to offer or how they came around to the asking price (what percentage used).

can anyone tell me off the bat?

 

[Perp]

I just had a look around their site and it looks very amateurish and leaves me doubting that they have as large a database that they purport to have. Without that extensive database the stats etc are going to be pretty useless.

Still haven't received a specific answer to my CPM query, but I just noticed that RP Data have formed a commercial division (don't know how recently) which they obtained by buying out CPM and Cityscope. That may be why the CPM website looks a bit amateurish - could be being given the overhaul and upgraded to RP Data standards.

I'll now contact RP Data commercial to enquire about their data and subscriptions, and report back when/if I receive a reply.

 

[boods99]

it's hard and a bit time consuming, but i open up 2 pages whenever i look at realestate.com.au or realcommercial.com.au.

one is open at the "buy" page, the other is at the "rent" page, so i can do direct comparisons.

just last night i noticed an office in freo getting WAY under market rent - but was unsure what to offer or how they came around to the asking price (what percentage used).

can anyone tell me off the bat?

Are you asking what the the cap rate would be for offices in Fremantle?

 

[Aaron Sice]

yeah i guess i am...?

 

[Perp]

Are you asking what the the cap rate would be for offices in Fremantle?

Yes, boods, I think that's what he's asking.

I don't know that market at all, BC, but I'd do one or more of the following:

* ring the selling agent and ask what a typical cap rate is for the area and ask the agent to provide some statistics to back that up
* ring a local valuer and tell them you're considering purchasing and wondered if they could give you any guidance on local cap rates for that kind of property
* ring another local commercial agent and tell them you're researching the area and want to know what kinds of cap rates are generally used in the area
* look at other properties for sale where you have both lease and sale figures available, and figure out the cap rates - not terribly accurate but should get you in the ballpark
* join myself and hopefully some other SSers in buying a corporate membership to RP Data's commercial statistics - then you'll have this data at your fingertips in great detail