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Dear Spark,
2. Let us wait and see what the Australian Federal Government and the RBA will truly do when the ASX has plunged sufficiently low enough so as to put the entire A$1 Trillion strong Australian Economy in danger to being totally wiped out, in the near future.
3. Consequently, we still do not see such desperate market intervention by the Australian Federal Government at this point in time, beside observing the RBA keep pumping money into the Australian money markets to boost its local liquidity and cutting its official interest rate, at this point in time.
regards,
Kenneth KOH
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Dear Spark,
1. The ASX rebounded strongly today after Kevin Rudd's announcement that the Australian Govt is committing some A$1.3 Trillion Australian Dollars to guarantee all the money deposits maintained/collected by the various banks and approved credit-lending institutions in Australia over the next 3 years.
2. It is definitely an immediate welcome confidence-boosting game, successfully executed for the ASX, with far greater ( immediate short term) positive impact on the local investing public than what would have happened if Kevin Rudd has merely agreed to adopt Malcolm Turnbull's suggestion to increase the Australian Govt's guarantee from all money deposits in Australian banks from A$20,000 to A$100,000 instead.
3. However, I am not sure if the present confidence boosting effects reported today is sustainable over a long period of time.
4. This is because Kevin Rudd's announcement can be interpretated in 2 different opposing ways.
5. Personally, I would have preferred Kevin Rudd to adopt Malcolm Turnbull's suggestion to provide Australian Govt's guarantee for all the money deposits amounting to A$100,000 or less, in Australian banks.
6. This is because it is a more prudent and far more credible policy over the long term though its immediate impact on the local share market on the ASX would be less than spectacular than what we have seen today, as indicated by 5.5% re-bound on the ASX and a strong market up-surge performance.
7. Morever, I would feel more confident and more likely to un-reservedly and personally believe that the Australian Govt would have "more potent economic options bullets hidden behind in its "magical" sleeves", to use at its own convenience and at the appropiate time when required", to properly manage the Australian Economy and further cope with the global financial crisis, should it further deteriorate, in the immediate near future.
8. By doing what he is doing today, Kevin Rudd could un-intentionally and unknowingly be sending out a completely different message concerning his own underlying "fear"/form of "desperateness" behind its ALP's Govt's judgement to "over-do" things by taking such a drastic measure at the very last minute, in order to try to properly "salvage" the Australian Economy back, by his public announcement today, in providing some A$1.3 Trillion Australian Govt's Guarantee for all the money deposits kept with banks in Australia over the next 3 years , at this point in time.
9. It has just been suggested to me that Wayne Swan who is presently in the US for the G7/G20 Finance Ministers' meeting, has apparently updated Kevin Rudd the previous night before directly from Washington that the world was /is presently in some sort of a "Soft Depression" before Kevin Rudd made his bold public announcement this morning.
10. If the Australian Economy and annual GDP are only worth A$1 Trillion Australian Dollars in value, then where is Kevin Rudd and his ALP Govt going to find the extra A$0.3 Trillion to credibily back up its own guarantee for the money deposits in the various banks/deposit collection institiutions in Australia, in the first place?... Not to mention, further over the next 3 years when an official Recession cannot be effectively ruled out, at this point in time?
11. This is especially so when the Australian Economy is presently rapidly slowing down faster into an Recession in the immediate near future than what the RBA has originallty envisaged previously, amidst the present global financial crisis.
12. I personally hope that the investing publics and markets would read Kevin Rudd's announcement and the recent 1% cut by the RBA positively as indications by the Australian Government to demonstrate its economic management leadership in times of crisis and not negatively as last minute desperate attempts by the Australian Govt's to "salvage" its own "ill-battered" Australian Economy which may have been inadvertently much more adversely/ill-impacted by the present global financial crisis than what the Australian Govt is prepared to openly admit to the Australian public and the world at large recently.
13. Should the global financial situation further deteriorates, what would Kevin Rudd and his ALP Govt further do in order to reassure the Australian public and the world at large that the Australian Economy and its various Australian banks are fiscally sound and financially viable and prudent again?
14. Hopefully, this is not required after the various G7/G20 Govt has met and jointly implemented an overall well-co-ordinated policy move to boost public investors' confidence and unclog the banking credit crisis, which is presently affecting the various countries' overall national money/credit liquidity flow and financial systems in the various OECD countries.
15. For your further comments and discussion,please.
16. Thank you.
regards,
Kenneth KOH