Debt Sentence

The latest property doom and gloom headline from Sydney has the Telehttp://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story/0,20281,18180305-5001021,00.html complaining that the Sydney property market has become so expensive that most young couples will never pay off their mortgage within their lifetime.

Debt sentence for homebuyers

By RICKY SUTTON

February 18, 2006

THE Sydney property market has become so expensive that most young couples will never pay off their mortgage within their lifetime.

And housing affordability has plunged to the same dire level as during the recession, with crippling prices now matching the punishing 17 per cent interest rates of the late 1980s as an obstacle to ownership.

Housing Industry Association research -- prepared exclusively for The Saturday Daily Telegraph -- paints a grim picture for aspiring homebuyers.

Experts believe that if you have not staked your spot in the Sydney housing market by now, you will never own a home here in your lifetime.

The warning came as Reserve Bank chief Ian Macfarlane said the next move in interest rates would be up.




In Sydney, house prices are now nine times household income, creating a generation priced out of the Australian dream.

The cost of buying a home in Sydney is now $518,000, far outstripping other cities. The average annual salary in Sydney is $61,000.

Housing Industry Association NSW executive director Wayne Gersbach said low interest rates were no help to young homebuyers.

"An average Sydney home is as unaffordable now as it was back in the late '80s when interest rates reached 17 per cent," he said.

Australian Consumers Association finance analyst Dr Nick Coates said it was reaching the stage where new entrants to the market would find home owenership impossible to achieve.

HIA figures released to The Saturday Daily Telegraph show the extent house prices are impacting more heavily on Sydneysiders than people in other cities.

Minimum monthly mortgage payments in Sydney account for 37 per cent of household income.

That compares with 29 per cent in Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra, 25 per cent in Perth and 22 per cent in Adelaide.

"Increasingly, NSW families are asking how their children are going to afford home ownership," Mr Gersbach said.

The housing dilemma has prompted The Daily Telegraph to launch a six-month market survey. Our website will track the trends, investigate how a generation is being locked out of home ownership and ask readers to share their experiences.

Developers blame rising prices on a raft of federal and state parliament taxes. They are preparing to challenge them in a high-profile advertising campaign.

Dr Coates, from the Australian Consumers Association, said people were being stretched financially in all directions.

This was echoed by Mr Macfarlane, who told a parliamentary committee yesterday: "Attitudes appear to be changing, with people becoming more willing to borrow against assets later in life."
 
See Change,
a usefull reminder that booms property/shares do not last for ever
i think these stories will only get worse,the principles of sound
investment apply equally whether prices happen to high,low or
inbetween, but imho the entry price is too high,that's why so
many are moving up to Queensland costal areas.
good luck
willair..
 
Experts believe that if you have not staked your spot in the Sydney housing market by now, you will never own a home here in your lifetime.

"An average Sydney home is as unaffordable now as it was back in the late '80s when interest rates reached 17 per cent," he said.

Australian Consumers Association finance analyst Dr Nick Coates said it was reaching the stage where new entrants to the market would find home owenership impossible to achieve.
What a load of bollocks. He conveniently ignored the entire period between those two peaks where affordability was much higher. All they need to do is look at a graph for christ sakes...

Then again, I suppose all you Syndey investors are looking at all these articles with glee as real estate becomes a dirty word and values drop even more :)
 
stretchy said:
What a load of bollocks. He conveniently ignored the entire period between those two peaks where affordability was much higher. All they need to do is look at a graph for christ sakes...

Then again, I suppose all you Syndey investors are looking at all these articles with glee as real estate becomes a dirty word and values drop even more :)

The more the merrier :D

It's amazing that this sort of article gets published , but it does give you an idea where the Lowest Common Demoninator is

See Change
 
I read this article and thought wat a load of crap . Firstly how can they claim that the average Australian wont be able to pay off their home loans over their life time . Fundamental common sense tells you that over time property appreciates in value (doubles 8 - 10 years ). Even if the loan couldnt be paid off im sure capital gains from the sale of the house would be easily able to pay off existing debt .
 
Oops! There it goes again, that fundamental law of physics that says real estate values must go up! Only this time it now states a doubling time! There are a few factors working against real estate values going up; baby boomers reaching retirement age, overpricing in the Australian market, general public acceptance of new real estate markets (sea/tree change rather than stay in cities), and the ability to travel freely to other real estate markets outside of Australia.
While real estate has continued its climb upwards over the past 50 years or so it is important to appreciate that it does not have to continue doing the same for the next 50 years. New buyers and investors should be aware of the possibility of a 'lack of automatic capital gain'. It may not happen!
 
This article is bullocks. How can they say FHB can never own their own house. Especially if house prices continue to stay stable it will only get easier as the FHB can just continue saving and since house prices are not getting higher it means that they if they save up enough they can afford what ever they want. Anything is possible in this great country... The home ownership 'dream' isnt really a dream anymore. Anyone can do it if they put their mind to it...

For a front page article its pretty poor considering no other factors were considered or mentioned.
tigerGT
 
Oops! There it goes again, that fundamental law of physics that says real estate values must go up! Only this time it now states a doubling time! There are a few factors working against real estate values going up; baby boomers reaching retirement age, overpricing in the Australian market, general public acceptance of new real estate markets (sea/tree change rather than stay in cities), and the ability to travel freely to other real estate markets outside of Australia.
While real estate has continued its climb upwards over the past 50 years or so it is important to appreciate that it does not have to continue doing the same for the next 50 years. New buyers and investors should be aware of the possibility of a 'lack of automatic capital gain'. It may not happen!

Housing prices in Australia as a whole have been overpriced for a number of years , its no new phenomen. If it were , then why did we have the last bull market in property just recently . Housing prices were overprices before this as well. The fact that house prices in Australia is overprices also means nothing . This can only be justified as effecting the momentum of housing prices if you conclude that people would be moving overseas due to price rises and I dont think 20 million people will be moving over seas any time soon .

Even so , if housing prices get too exspesnive development will just push further and further out of the city into regions that have previously been untouched or been small towns. Those new families or younger people who cannot afford to buy in major cities will locate into these smaller towns on the cities hinge. When they can afford to move closer into the city they will.

If you look at a graph of property over the last 100 years , property values have gone down a very small percentage of time . I dont quite think the "babyboomers" is going to make property not grow in value. Wheather or not the younger generation supports the country with children , the government will increase immigration to fill the numbers anyway and thus creating demand.
 
My friends and I are perplexed as to where all the people are coming from in SA. Just recently I purchased a cheap house 30K from city, not near the train (but not far from expressway to city). Was told there was less than 2% vacancy rates. I advertised and the house was rented by first day after settlement. Dozens of inquiries and interest.

Now what interests me is where are all these people coming from? Are they just going round in circles, renting one property then another? because there are heaps of new apartments being built and about 10k further out there are a lot of new housing estates which young people are buying into. Other young singles staying home longer and people are supposed to be leaving Adelaide in droves but it looks like rental property will still be very much in demand, baby boomers around or not.

I guess Adelaide is quite diff from Sydney but Sydney and Brisbane have a growing population while Adel's is decreasing. So it will be rental yields for investors for next few years rather than CG - but that's OK isn't it?

Anyway I'm happy!
 
plumtree said:
Oops! There it goes again, that fundamental law of physics that says real estate values must go up! Only this time it now states a doubling time! There are a few factors working against real estate values going up; baby boomers reaching retirement age, overpricing in the Australian market, general public acceptance of new real estate markets (sea/tree change rather than stay in cities), and the ability to travel freely to other real estate markets outside of Australia.
While real estate has continued its climb upwards over the past 50 years or so it is important to appreciate that it does not have to continue doing the same for the next 50 years. New buyers and investors should be aware of the possibility of a 'lack of automatic capital gain'. It may not happen!


Hi plumtree;

i tend to believe that capital growth will continue to happen (in the majority of areas in Aust). i attended a seminar in sydney once where they showed a graph of property cycle in england. the graph showed that property prices have double in value every 7-10 years for the past 800 years!!!.

going of this statistic along with our own statistics of how property prices have double similiary every 7-1o years last century along with the increasing propulation (mainly throuh immigration) i am sure our economy has a long way still to go.
 
farone said:
i tend to believe that capital growth will continue to happen (in the majority of areas in Aust). i attended a seminar in sydney once where they showed a graph of property cycle in england. the graph showed that property prices have double in value every 7-10 years for the past 800 years!!!
That's on average, in the very long term. But it can be a roller coaster along the way. I had a property in England which I bought in 1988. By 1990 it had gone down 20%. It took another 7 years to reach its purchase price- and this was after we had renovated it. We sold it a year after that again and got a very modest profit.

I knew that I had a good chance of catching the wave up by keeping- but it needed expensive workto hang on, and we did not have the money.
 
It's all a matter of timing isn't it? Properties will increase after several years but not in all areas at the same time and in the meantime do you hang on or do you sell so that you can invest in an area which is moving. Someone I know inherited a block of land on the seafront from her Grandfather who bought it for a tiny amount in the 1940s. This land was at Carrackalinga 60ks from city and completely unknown until the 90s. Now ask anyone how much that land would be worth today esp if she'd built on it!!! However she sold it for about $20k and went on to do other things with the money. Who knows what she would have inherited if Granfather had put it towards a house back then? Who knows what she would have today if she'd hung on to it? BUT it took 50 years for that land to actually be worth something.
 
Interesting thing happening in the UK at the moment. In the past the ideal move was to go west to Hampshire, Cornwall, Devon etc. but not anymore!
Now the move is much further afield, not just France and Spain but to Croatia, Bulgaria, Lithuania,Dubai, Egypt with another trickle opting for the Canadian Eastern provinces. The transition is from Germany, Holland and so on. The choice once was confined to your own backyard but now anybody can move to another country to retire with relative ease. You only have to consider the investments made by forumites in places like NZ, USA and Europe to realise how flexible the world has become. The point is that when things are too costly in one place you only have to pack your bags and go!
The Australian property market is not locked in concrete, if people have options the 'supply & demand factor will kick in and prices will be affected.

It is not my intention to cause fear but i do feel it is important for investors, especially new people to this market, to appreciate that much more care is needed to be profitable. That house prices will go up is not a guarantee. Do not think that any house purchased this year will make money when it is sold in 5 or 10 years time.
 
point is that when things are too costly in one place you only have to pack your bags and go!

I dont think people are going to consider packing their bags and moving to another country due to property prices . Your looking at one asepct of life in Australia . Compaired to many other nations Australia is still one of the best countries in the world to live in . I dont know many people that would pack up their bags and move o/s purely because houses are too expensive . People learn to cope when prices get more expsnesive , it soo becomes the norm . Dont belive this ? Look at prices 10 years ago , im pretty sure you would have thought they were expsnesive as well . But guess what now their more than double .

The same can be said for alot of things including petrol , im sure 10 years ago you too thought petrol was expsensive , but guess wat . Its now at record levels and approaching US $100 a barrel . Things always change and people do also change and addapt . Dont be quick to thing that the property is going to be so volatile because of the babyboomers and rising house prices in sydney . Their have always been certain things in the economy and world events that have threatend the property market its volatailty but it has continually shown in not just Australia but around the world its ability to show consistent growth (albeit some exceptions). The fact is its likely their will be a demand for property therfore likely the value of property will appreciate.
 
young_gun said:
I dont think people are going to consider packing their bags and moving to another country due to property prices . Your looking at one asepct of life in Australia . Compaired to many other nations Australia is still one of the best countries in the world to live in . I dont know many people that would pack up their bags and move o/s purely because houses are too expensive . People learn to cope when prices get more expsnesive , it soo becomes the norm . Dont belive this ? Look at prices 10 years ago , im pretty sure you would have thought they were expsnesive as well . But guess what now their more than double .
The aspect I am concered about is house prices compared to income. I cant confirm this stat, but I did read that it takes nearly 5 times an average income these days to purchase an average house. In the late 70's, it was more like 2 times the average income.

In fact the usual folklore of only buy a home thats 2.5 times your income is laughable given todays prices. In Perth, I wouldnt even get a 1-bd dump for 2.5 times my salary these days.

So yes, housing has become less affordable, and no that income mulitple trend is not sustainable. Unless you start talking about 50/60-year mortgages (which is possible in Japan apparently... )
 
im with you stretchy..its all about income v house price.
my parents tell me their 25k first home and land package was 5 times dads' income.
my first was exactly 5times mine.
my younger brother (24yrs)could indeed buy a house on 5times his, but it would be in a non-desirable suburb where he would not want to live, a long way from cbd etc. absolutely nothing wrong with these suburbs, full of new amenities, nice new houses, all the shops, transport and everything youd want.....yet a lot of people just wont live there.
i see this as a biggg influence. people want in in blue ribbon..or is it blue ribband... areas.
 
plumtree said:
Interesting thing happening in the UK at the moment. In the past the ideal move was to go west to Hampshire, Cornwall, Devon etc. but not anymore!
Now the move is much further afield, not just France and Spain but to Croatia, Bulgaria, Lithuania,Dubai, Egypt with another trickle opting for the Canadian Eastern provinces.
A lot of the movement within England was people who are still working.

I lived in Hampshire (Southampton)- although I worked 50km west in Bournemouth, I chose to live in a city within a one hour commute of London- just in case I needed to.

People would commute up to 2 hours per day, each way, for lifestyle or financial reasons.

Regarding affordability. In many countries, people cannot afford to buy. So there's a much larger percentage of renters than owner occupiers. The landlords have the upper hand.
 
stretchy said:
The aspect I am concered about is house prices compared to income. I cant confirm this stat, but I did read that it takes nearly 5 times an average income these days to purchase an average house. In the late 70's, it was more like 2 times the average income.

Whose income are you talking about? Working class People on low incomes in the 70s found it took 5X their income to get a decent house. Now its the middle class that are finding it takes 5X their income but it's still do-able, just takes a while to get a desirable house in desirable suburb. But it was the same in 70s, its just that today even people on good incomes can't pick and chose.
 
Back
Top