Declining Immigration Flow Into New Zealand VS Its Impact on the KIWI Housing Market

[Kennethkohsg]

Hi Kenneth,

I think the scaremongering is over-cooked globally at the moment, but that there is a small risk of a US recession sending the stock markets backwards for a year or two tops.
Cheers,
Michael.

*******************
Hi Michael,

1. As newspapers generally like to "sensationalise" its reports for higher sales figures, I do agree with you that "the scaremongering is over-cooked globally at the moment", to a certain extent.

2. This is especially so when there is a lot of bad news coming out from the various markets about the same time and the market sentiments are fast starting to change and becoming more bearish in recent times.

3. However, it does not alter the basic fundamental picture from emerging regarding the slowing down economy and the related (slowing) housing markets in USA, in UK, Spain, in New Zealand etc as well as the market's increased risks and uncertainities caused by the recent US Credit Crunch Crisis, the weakening of the US$ Currency and sudden increase in the oil and gold prices etc.

4. Collectively, these negative news can feed on each other and cause market sentiments to change significantly within a short period of time, leading eventually to a "self-fulfilling" prophecy.

5. Whether Australia can be effectively be "insulated" from the current financial crisis and escaped unscathed again as in the past, will depend much on the quality of its national leadership as well as the effectiveness of the RBA under Glenn Steven's new Chairmanship.

6. For your further comments and discussion, please.

7. Thank you

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[topcropper]

What do ya reckon - it will all be one country soon won't it?

Maybe.

But I tell ya what. Aussies wont like our place being called 'The West Island' as the kiwi's call us now.

 

[Don and Liz]

1. Can you please, further confirm/disconfirm that the international immigration into New Zealand has dropped significantly over the last few years especially among the "student" immigrants. What are the recent annual immigration figures as compared to its peak days?

2. Do you happen to also know the actual real reasons for this declining trend.

Kenneth - I can't confirm it but I have heard that international student numbers have declined. Not sure why. Perhaps more work needs to be done maintaining relationships with feeder institutions and increasing post study opportunities . The students themselves have alot of choice (funds) and may simply be studying elsewhere.


Kenneth - edited this post with a link to statistics new zealand. It has net migration figures.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/tables/population-indicators.htm

 

[Don and Liz]

Apparently they were flying off the plans cos NZ has no CGT.

Technically there is no CGT but if you buy property with the intention of selling then GST, and income tax applies on profits.

There is an "intention" test which may seem easy to get around but who wants to fight with the IRD.

It is easier just to put your buy and hold properties in one structure and properties that you wish to sell/trade/reno/subdivide/develope or assign into a trading structure.

Otherwise you risk "tainting" and if this occur the inland revenue department will want you to pay tax on every property you have bought and sold or buy and sell in the future including any PPOR - "ouch"

 

[alexlee]

If you're talking about students from Japan, Hong Kong and China, for example, it would make sense that student numbers are falling back. The the kiwi dollar rising as much as it has for the last couple of years, we're talking a 30% or so increase in the cost of living in NZ for Japanese students, for example. As the HKD and CNY are pegged to the USD, you'll see similar issues.
Alex