Deer Park..too industrial or not??

[Slammer0000]

Hello all,

Have been looking at the newer side of Deer Park (other side of train line). Anyone bought in here yet? Is the suburb too industrial? I have heard its only light industrial. I am thinking that being only 18kms from city it could be a good thing. Also can anyone tell me of any roads/highways etc. going in near here in the near future. I heard there was something happening but not sure. I guess the travel by vehicle into city would be longer due to the bridge etc.

Cheers Slammer

 

[Michael Yardney]

Hello all,

Have been looking at the newer side of Deer Park (other side of train line). Anyone bought in here yet? Is the suburb too industrial? I have heard its only light industrial. I am thinking that being only 18kms from city it could be a good thing. Also can anyone tell me of any roads/highways etc. going in near here in the near future. I heard there was something happening but not sure. I guess the travel by vehicle into city would be longer due to the bridge etc.

Cheers Slammer

If you are looking for capital growth there are better areas of Melbourne to invest in.

That part of Melbourne has always underperformed and always will - the industrial activity in the areas is only part of the reason.

I know many people think "that area is cheap so it will have to catch up with the rest of Melbourne!"

It will always be cheap and therefore underperform - but inreturn you may get higher yields. For my money I would look elsewhere

 

[alexgsz]

If you are looking for capital growth there are better areas of Melbourne to invest in.

That part of Melbourne has always underperformed and always will - the industrial activity in the areas is only part of the reason.

I know many people think "that area is cheap so it will have to catch up with the rest of Melbourne!"

It will always be cheap and therefore underperform - but inreturn you may get higher yields. For my money I would look elsewhere

Michael as I'm still new to the property game, I've got a couple of questions:

I'm curious how you can tell an area will always underperform, is there nothing that could ever be done in the area to change this?

If an area has underperformed over a period of time, eg: low capital growth, wouldn't there then be a point in time that it becomes good value? EG: If all the surrounding suburbs hypothetically rise by 10% for 3 years and Deer Park only rises by 3% over the same time, wouldn't it then be in need of a "price correction" and thus be a good performer?

Are there any tell tale sign that help predict when a suburb will "come good"?

Thanks
PS I dont live in Deer Park nor have any bias for/against the suburb, just trying to learn how you identify and quantify these areas in a subjective manner.

 

[suburbangirl]

Slammer, are you talking about the new housing estates such as Brimbank Gardens, St Andrews Park?? I think they are located quite close to local industry - in fact, I think the front part of the St Andrews Park estate actually overlooks a gas or petroleum tank place on the opposite side of the road.

If you are looking for newer houses in the general Deer Park area, maybe try somewhere like Cairnlea, which is 5 mins drive from Brimbank Central shopping centre, and has great access to the ringroad. Far from underperforming, this area has done quite well.

There are quite a few pockets of Deer Park, and I don't think you can really generalise about them as they are quite different.

Just my 2c worth! Hope that helps!!

 

[our obsession]

Historical Performance: Deer Park

From the Victorian Valuer-General Statistics:

Deer Park:..1994 Median House Price: $100,000......2004 MHP:$220,000.....Change of: 120%

Ardeer:..1994 MHP: $94,500.....2004 MHP: $214,000....change: 126%


Sunshine:..1994 MHP: $84,500.....2004: $240,000....change: 184%

St Albans:...1994: $97,514..........2004: $218,000........124%

Sydenham:....1994: $124,904.......2004: $267,000........114%

Keilor:.....1994: $170,000.............2004: $335,000........97%

Laverton:...1994: $78,000.............2004: $215,000......176%

 

[Slammer0000]

mmm.interesting. I do not know Deer Park well as I am not from Victoria so I am just trying to find out a little more info. Being so close to the CBD I thought it maybe good option but as you say I have been worried about the industrial side of things. May stay away then..

Both very different and further away from the CBD I have also been looking at other possible areas such as the new estates in both Pakenham and Tarneit.
Pakenham seems an interesting one 50kms out with a few estates happening.

 

[Twitch]

mmm.interesting. I do not know Deer Park well as I am not from Victoria so I am just trying to find out a little more info. Being so close to the CBD I thought it maybe good option but as you say I have been worried about the industrial side of things.

18km is actually not considered close to the CBD in Melbourne. There are lots of cheap suburbs to the north that are closer than that and have better growth prospects.

 

[our obsession]

Historical Figures Pakenham..

Pakenham....1994 Median House Price: $96,000......2004 MHP: $222,825.....change of: 132%

No figures for Tarneit....but Hoppers Crossing: 1994: $106,900....2004: $223,000.....change: 109%

Werribee: 1994: $100,000.......2004: $207,000.......107%

Laverton: 1994: $78,000.........2004: $215,000.......176%

Wyndham Vale: 1994: $87,500...2004: $195,000......123%

(Courtesy of Vic. Valuer-General stats 1994-2005)

 

[our obsession]

Historical Figures Top Performing Suburbs:

Melbourne:

North:

Coburg East:...1994-2004 Change: 226%...Growth PA: 12.6%....Change 2003-2004: 3%..........2004 MHP: $360,500

Coburg:..1994-2004: 210%.....Growth PA: 12%.....Change 03-04:3%.....MHP 04: $360,000

Preston:...198%.......11.5%..........2%.........$327,500

Brunswick:...195%......11.4%.........4%.........$390,000

Fitzroy:.......193%.......11.3%........8%.........$505,000

(Courtesy of Vic. Valuer-General Stats 1994-2005)

 

[our obsession]

Historical Top Performing Suburbs..

Melbourne:

Northwest:

Maribyrnong:...Change 1994-2004: 205%....Growth PA: 11.8%...Change 03-04: 6%..............2004 MHP: $376,000

Essendon:....192%......11.3%........0%............$525,000

Niddie:.........191%.......11.3%.......Minus 1%....$372,000

Kensington:...185%.......11%.........7%.............$400,000

Ascot Vale:....178%.......10.8%.......6%............$425,000

(Courtesy of Vic. Valuer-General).

 

[our obsession]

Historical Top Performing Suburbs..

Melbourne

Northeast:

Fairfield:....211%.......12%.........16%............$497,000

Heidelberg West:...209%...11.9%...0%...........$249,950

Briar Hill:....201%...........11.7%......7%..........$342,000

Alphington:...201%.......11.6%.......1%...........$526,000

Collingwood:...199%.......11.6%......15%.........$405,000

(Courtesy of Vic. Valuer-General 1994-2005 Stats.)

 

[our obsession]

Historical Gains for Ballarat, Bendigo and Warrnambool: Just for fun..

Ballarat: 1994: $75,000..........2004: $190,000............Change: 153%

Bendigo: 1994: $84,000..........2004: $200,000.............138%

Warrnambool: 1994: $100,000....2004: $245,000..........145%

(Courtesy Vic. Valuer-General Stats 1994-2005 )

 

[DavidMc]

Pakenham....1994 Median House Price: $96,000......2004 MHP: $222,825.....change of: 132%

Be careful with some of these stats. Some of these suburbs have had lots of new developments, which can artificially inflate the median price and create a false appearance of good growth. Not saying these areas haven't grown at all, just saying a portion of this growth isn't 'real growth'.

You really need to do your own 'same house' method on this one.