Economists - Decade of house pain predicted

[Propertunity]

Anyway, I'm off from Somersoft guys.

Oh! But I was doing so well with my personal investing by doing the opposite of what you said

May be back once 2012 is over and the correction has happened.

Well at least have the decency to turn up to catch up on what happened. This guy didn't: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=710598&postcount=103

Cheers.

 

[Aaron Sice]

If you've got a three year window on your predictions, my guess is he can't stay away.

But then I post on SS, what do I know.....?

 

[Rolf Latham]

***yawns***

perhaps the shortest, most concise and relevant response

ta
rolf

 

[ozgal]

Hi Devo,

Thanks so much for your reply, much appreciated.

We do feel fortunate in having a very low mortgage on a well situated PPOR in Prahran, Victoria (needs some repairs though).

Time to take the next step with an IP.

 

[BayView]

Doubt it'll be up though if nothing else. Springs gonna be the tell tail.

Good luck people
Cheers

The point being missed by lots of these types is access to funding.

At the moment, access to borrowed funds is very, very hard unless you are in a very strong borrowing position...

Most people aren't.

Spring - my prediction is a few top-end sales where the stronger fin positions may be, and a little bit from the FHB's with their new Stamp Duty discounts, but even a lot of them will not qualify for lending.

Spring will be dead.

 

[BayView]

Hey Nathan,
Just a thought.

Maybe you'll be wide awake when your vacancies and arrears rise.

I often wonder how he goes with this given the areas and (burnt out) homes he buys and fixes up.

I looked at a number of houses in Country Vic a while ago. Could buy them for $60k, $70k etc, do 'em up and rent em out for $150p/w at that time.

Problem was; not enough renters, and the areas were....sketchy.

 

[BV]

Anyway, I'm off from Somersoft guys. Learning less now with so much property spruiking.
Cheers. See you.
May be back once 2012 is over and the correction has happened. The "experts" will be surprised.

Adjos amigo and you won't need to come back before 2024 when we'll have the next correction

 

[coastymike]

$800 per day in 2011. This shows that wages really haven't moved anywhere in IT in over 10 years. Before I became a public practitioner I was project managing an Oracle 11.0i implementation back in 2001 and was getting $1,000 per day. Scary to think the rates are still the same as back then. And that was in the finance sector as well. I thought rates would be around $1,500 to $2,000 per day now but obviously wrong. And no that wasn't the company rates that the rate I was getting in the hand.

 

[Aaron_C]

$800 per day in 2011. This shows that wages really haven't moved anywhere in IT in over 10 years. Before I became a public practitioner I was project managing an Oracle 11.0i implementation back in 2001 and was getting $1,000 per day. Scary to think the rates are still the same as back then. And that was in the finance sector as well. I thought rates would be around $1,500 to $2,000 per day now but obviously wrong. And no that wasn't the company rates that the rate I was getting in the hand.

Professional services haven't moved because there's so many profesional services workers now. Everyone goes to university to be an accountant, lawyer, IT programmer etc.

 

[bluestorm]

$800 per day in 2011. This shows that wages really haven't moved anywhere in IT in over 10 years. Before I became a public practitioner I was project managing an Oracle 11.0i implementation back in 2001 and was getting $1,000 per day. Scary to think the rates are still the same as back then. And that was in the finance sector as well. I thought rates would be around $1,500 to $2,000 per day now but obviously wrong. And no that wasn't the company rates that the rate I was getting in the hand.

Yeah, you really can't compare the Dot Com days to now. $800 is the higher end ( in areas like BI and Data Warehousing). Normal is around $650 for a run of the mill developer. More outsourcing, more people with degrees, more 457 visas, no Dot Com you can spell HTML so your worth $150K stuff.
But still better than being a permanent employee

 

[coastymike]

Bluestorm

Agreed. Much better than being an employee and the thought of ownership over you by the employer. Dont get me wrong those rates are good but im just surprised. I guess it is like aaron said everyone went out and did a professional degree and supply outstrips demand.

By the way dont leave the forum. Being an accountant with property clients i of all people should be spruiking to keep the clients coming in. However i think the economy is very sick and will be for quite a while. The nathans of the world will do well and people like him always do as they think outside the box. Same as the dazzs of the world. The truth is however that the property investing world is mostly made up of people who are nothing like nathan or dazz.

They were like me in the dotcom days. Damn lucky.

 

[Aaron_C]

Yep coastymike - I have friends (myself included) who got high year 12 scores and ended up working as a lawyer on a lousy 50-60k p.a. But that's how it is these days - no matter how smart you are a PAYG job just doesn't cut it

 

[bluestorm]

The nathans of the world will do well and people like him always do as they think outside the box. Same as the dazzs of the world. The truth is however that the property investing world is mostly made up of people who are nothing like nathan or dazz.

They were like me in the dotcom days. Damn lucky.

Thats what I see. A lot of people purely got lucky in a credit driven property boom and think they are experts. Even those with only a PPOR who did nothing and saw their $400K PPOR increase to $1.5m.
Yes, people like nathan and dazz will do well in any market. But the reality is they do not represent the bulk of the property investor types who purely rely on CG year on year.

I'd argue that you have a generation of property "experts" on here who have for the most part only seen property rise. There is still a lot of denial at even the possibility of a property correction is Australia. People fail to understand how bad Europe and the US are. For now the governments have been kicking the can along delaying the inevitable GFC2. Europe counties will default, the US is basically insolvent (August 2 will pass as they will raise their debt limit, but it's only a matter of time). The credit driven asset rises are over. The world has hit it's credit limit.

Even Nathan at 26/27 has not seen a proper property correction in his investing time. Investing in low-socio economic locations in when Australia goes into deep recession. I wouldn't want to be in those locations when the downturn hits.

Anyway, I'm off. Somersoft takes up some time, and I'm working on other stuff on the side. Aim to retire in 8 years.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

$800 per day in 2011. This shows that wages really haven't moved anywhere in IT in over 10 years. Before I became a public practitioner I was project managing an Oracle 11.0i implementation back in 2001 and was getting $1,000 per day. Scary to think the rates are still the same as back then. And that was in the finance sector as well. I thought rates would be around $1,500 to $2,000 per day now but obviously wrong. And no that wasn't the company rates that the rate I was getting in the hand.

Come to Canberra, there are contractors (including me) getting better than $1k/day.

That said, you make a good point about rates having stalled a bit. We are just now seeing some rates creep up a bit (just landed a gig at $1350/day).

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Aim to retire in 8 years.

Best of luck, drop in from time to time and say hi.

 

[bluestorm]

Come to Canberra, there are contractors (including me) getting better than $1k/day.

That said, you make a good point about rates having stalled a bit. We are just now seeing some rates creep up a bit (just landed a gig at $1350/day).

Yeah, but Canberra is a different market. Canberra is full of government agencies wasting tax payer dollars paying double for contractors that the private sector does elsewhere.

Nah, I'll pass on Canberra for living on the harbour.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Yeah, but Canberra is a different market. Canberra is full of government agencies wasting tax payer dollars paying double for contractors that the private sector does elsewhere.

Nah, I'll pass on Canberra for living on the harbour.

The money is being paid on a supply and demand basis, with a big part of the issue being people who say "eww, Canberra", and hence fewer people to spread the spend between.

 

[ozgal]

Oops...messed up this post...see amended one below.

 

[Aaron_C]

Hi Bayview,

So, what are your thoughts for those who are in a good borrowing position?

We have disposable income of around $140 k, around $280k savings, and PPOR worth $1 to $1.2 mill (mortgage $90k).

You can buy a lot with those figures

 

[ozgal]

The point being missed by lots of these types is access to funding.

At the moment, access to borrowed funds is very, very hard unless you are in a very strong borrowing position...

Most people aren't.

Spring - my prediction is a few top-end sales where the stronger fin positions may be, and a little bit from the FHB's with their new Stamp Duty discounts, but even a lot of them will not qualify for lending.

Spring will be dead.

Hi Bayview,

So what are your thoughts for those who are in a good borrowing position?

We have disposable income of around $140 k, around $280k savings, and PPOR in Prahran, worth $1 to $1.2 mill (mortgage $90k).

Looking at our options...looking at best mix of PPOR and IPs...Hampton, Sandringham possiblities to purchase the PPOR perhaps.

Should mention not university educated...earnings are "blood, sweat and tears...long hours...". We know we should be doing things smarter not harder.