That would be the graph from the John Rolf CQU report that has the peak at 2013-14 with a sharp decline to 2015 before everyone being gone in 2017. Some of his assumptions have turned out wrong and some of the projects are no longer going ahead so take it with a grain of salt. I have a copy of his report that I can try and post if someone wants it.
Gladstone QLD - How is it Going????
- Thread starter charlieandkath
- Start date
That would be the graph from the John Rolf CQU report that has the peak at 2013-14 with a sharp decline to 2015 before everyone being gone in 2017. Some of his assumptions have turned out wrong and some of the projects are no longer going ahead so take it with a grain of salt. I have a copy of his report that I can try and post if someone wants it.
another karratha?
unfortunately i dare say that there were a heap of 'investors' that were lured into investing by the spiel & greed - however Gladstone was never going to be another Karratha - the fundamentals are quite different - the restrictions on land & development that exist in Karratha are simply not replicated in Gladstone & neither is the remote geography.
Gladstone is a mixed industrial city that happened to have a few big projects coincide - in the longer term the city will thrive because it has critical mass & is reasonably protected from the elements (unlike bundaberg & rockhampton) - however it'll never be a pretty place .. it'll never attract tourism or the retiree set.
Well placed property will hold up but i fear for the out of town estates .. people will just have to understand that paying $700k for a property with little surrounding amenity (construction cost $150k & land value say $150k) was a mistake - victims of greed, chasing a dream that was never there
As for the new units, they will find their value (albeit lower than they sold for)
There will be more industrial developments in Gladstone & these will take up some of the housing oversupply .. but rationally, there will be no get rich quick - that money has already been made & the developers have moved on
If you're stuck with a negatively geared place then you need to weigh up the holding costs/losses v the amount of time until the market picks up & that could be a while - my suggestion would be cut your losses now & move on (put it down to a lesson learnt) - try & make up your money somewhere else with better prospects in the short term - but stay investing, if you get out now then you will have certainly lost - you have to keep in the game
i'm still sitting on 2 townhouses with capital gains in them & neutral cashflow so not too worried, values have dropped but i'll ride it out .. sell on the next up !!
unfortunately i dare say that there were a heap of 'investors' that were lured into investing by the spiel & greed - however Gladstone was never going to be another Karratha - the fundamentals are quite different - the restrictions on land & development that exist in Karratha are simply not replicated in Gladstone & neither is the remote geography.
Gladstone is a mixed industrial city that happened to have a few big projects coincide - in the longer term the city will thrive because it has critical mass & is reasonably protected from the elements (unlike bundaberg & rockhampton) - however it'll never be a pretty place .. it'll never attract tourism or the retiree set.
Well placed property will hold up but i fear for the out of town estates .. people will just have to understand that paying $700k for a property with little surrounding amenity (construction cost $150k & land value say $150k) was a mistake - victims of greed, chasing a dream that was never there
As for the new units, they will find their value (albeit lower than they sold for)
There will be more industrial developments in Gladstone & these will take up some of the housing oversupply .. but rationally, there will be no get rich quick - that money has already been made & the developers have moved on
If you're stuck with a negatively geared place then you need to weigh up the holding costs/losses v the amount of time until the market picks up & that could be a while - my suggestion would be cut your losses now & move on (put it down to a lesson learnt) - try & make up your money somewhere else with better prospects in the short term - but stay investing, if you get out now then you will have certainly lost - you have to keep in the game
i'm still sitting on 2 townhouses with capital gains in them & neutral cashflow so not too worried, values have dropped but i'll ride it out .. sell on the next up !!
Which words in particular Neil?
I totally agree. But there are similarities in the way that a massive amount of workers turn up to build the mine and once it is operational the workers leave and only a small amount remain to run it.
Replace the word mine with various Gladstone projects.
And I agree with this as well but my concern would be that the massive industry does not need all the bodies or housing that was required during the construction stage.
When the construction stage is over and the plants become operational the 10's of thousands of workers will drop back to a small percentage of this amount and would seem,to me at least, that there will be a huge amount of empty housing due to lack of workers to fill them.
A similar thing would have happened throughout Gladstones history, probably when Boyne Island was being built and then finished?
Is there something I am not seeing and if there is, what?
Neil, how do you see the speculative building in Gracemere much of which I understand, was built as accommodation for Gladstone workers, affecting Rockhampton?
Can you see that being filled in the near future?
Currently there are 200 odd properties available there for rent, probably more than in Rockhampton itself.
The bolded bit would make the situation even worse wouldn't it, less workers again, less opportunity to fill the vacancies?
I am sure I have it but I didn't rename it into something obvious when I saved it. Can you tell me what the pdf is called or provide a link please?
The mothers and 7 kids??
Anyway, yes there was get rich quick going on for sure. The investors who bought without visiting, well yes they have ended up with inferior homes in inferior locations for sure.
Gracemere - No I don't think too much was built on the back of Gladstone, but it certainly served that purpose.
The Gracemere Industrial Estate is kicking off and I think that will finally allow some major "Paget Type" industry starting up there. It is in a prime position to take advantage of this.
Anyway, yes there was get rich quick going on for sure. The investors who bought without visiting, well yes they have ended up with inferior homes in inferior locations for sure.
Gracemere - No I don't think too much was built on the back of Gladstone, but it certainly served that purpose.
The Gracemere Industrial Estate is kicking off and I think that will finally allow some major "Paget Type" industry starting up there. It is in a prime position to take advantage of this.
It was mentioned to me by a PM up there. She said they have been living in sub standard cheapies but now that prices were dropping they could move into near new brick and tile in overbuilt areas for the same money. PM said she has getting lots of similar inquiries leaving the poor quality housing in good locations vacant and the good quality housing in poor locations at least getting tenanted.
It seems unusual they there are suddenly hundreds of vacancies, its not as if rockhampton had a major closure did it?
That would be good and hopefully ready in time for the next leg up.
I will admit to having only skimmed the presentation at this stage and to not understanding a fair bit of the 33 slides but it seemed the last slide, "conclusions", painted a fairly rosy picture out to 2018. Rapid population growth of 10-25K, medium prices rising and Gladstone avoiding the fate of "mining towns".
Am I missing something?
Yeah I get that.
However DEC seems to have a very dim view of Gladstones' prospects and then links to this report which seems to be saying much the opposite of what DEC is. Just wondering if DEC might have linked to the wrong report.
That report is not the one I was talking about.
The one I saw showed a single chart, projects and workers leading up to mid 2013 early 2014 and then falling off a cliff.
Pretty sure it was put out by the govt.
I cant see it closing having too much effect. The people staying on camp are only here for construction and once that finishes they will leave. As they stayed on camp they did not effect the housing market as they were not renting.
This article was in the Observer Saturday. Note Bechtel claims nearly half of workers are local and not living on island....
"CONSTRUCTION company Bechtel is still hiring more than 100 workers every week for the three LNG plant sites on Curtis Island.
The expected workforce peak is 10,500, and the construction giant said 47% of those are local workers.
That peak is expected to continue until mid-2014.
But the projects are in a transitional stage from civil works to the structural and mechanical phases of construction.
Bechtel general manager Kevin Berg said the original pre-project forecast had shown a peak of 8500 but, due to an accelerated schedule, floods, the downturn in mining and metals and the easing skills shortage in some areas, the figure has blown out.
"We currently have over 10,000 people working across the three projects and on the mainland," he said.
"We are approaching our peak and will remain at peak through mid-next year."
Mr Berg said many local residents were still applying for jobs, with many joining the projects every week.
"In fact, this week, we have more than 4700 local residents working on these projects," he said.
Five thousand workers are assigned to the island, which houses 4500 at any one time.
Mr Berg said although the project was transitioning, there were still a number of critical roles Bechtel is looking to fill.
"These are pipefitters, special class welders, electricians and riggers," he said.
"We are specifically looking for people with three years experience in these fields in construction, heavy industry or maintenance operations."
People can register interest by sending their resume."
"CONSTRUCTION company Bechtel is still hiring more than 100 workers every week for the three LNG plant sites on Curtis Island.
The expected workforce peak is 10,500, and the construction giant said 47% of those are local workers.
That peak is expected to continue until mid-2014.
But the projects are in a transitional stage from civil works to the structural and mechanical phases of construction.
Bechtel general manager Kevin Berg said the original pre-project forecast had shown a peak of 8500 but, due to an accelerated schedule, floods, the downturn in mining and metals and the easing skills shortage in some areas, the figure has blown out.
"We currently have over 10,000 people working across the three projects and on the mainland," he said.
"We are approaching our peak and will remain at peak through mid-next year."
Mr Berg said many local residents were still applying for jobs, with many joining the projects every week.
"In fact, this week, we have more than 4700 local residents working on these projects," he said.
Five thousand workers are assigned to the island, which houses 4500 at any one time.
Mr Berg said although the project was transitioning, there were still a number of critical roles Bechtel is looking to fill.
"These are pipefitters, special class welders, electricians and riggers," he said.
"We are specifically looking for people with three years experience in these fields in construction, heavy industry or maintenance operations."
People can register interest by sending their resume."
gee we're going to be in trouble when the project winds up and those 4700 people don't have a job.
Just got a call from PM saying the tenants will stay on if we decrease the rent by $100 PW.. Nice of them to give us the opinion I guessOuch.. That's gunna hurt! Well I won't have any problems lifting the rent when the time comes.. If the time comes??
well, is the $100 decrease market ?????? it would entirely depend on that,
if the tenants are being turkeys, id tell them to go jump
