Goodbye Lo Doc and No Doc

With non bank lenders like Bluestone and RAMs not having access to cheap foreign funds to lend to Aussies, it seems Aussie banks will have less competition in the lo doc sector.

Now we have Peter Costello trying to score some pre election Brownie points by introducing lending criteria for lo doc loans, if the states fail to rein in loose practices by MBs.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22267310-952,00.html

I wonder how this will impact the property market. It is likely to take out as many FHBs as PIs.
 
Good Grief!

What a lot of twaddle.

Glad that everybody is a two bob expert.

I was going to write a reasonable, logical response to your comment, WinstonWolfe, then I decided not to waste my time.

As for the newspaper article - words fail me!

Good Grief!

Kristine
 
Hi Kristine,
Are you still working for RAMs and if you do
can you tell us if there is any change in their lending policy?
Today I saw RAMs advertisements on TV so I guess they are still providing loans
but is it business as usual?

Cheers
 
I asked this question 3 weeks ago in Demise of the Lo-Doc.

What are the implications for lo-docs ?
  • Will they become harder to get or even disappear ?
  • Will the risk premium (ie interest rate) increase ?
  • Will max LVRs decrease ?
  • Will it be business as usual because the banks are happy with the risks even though we are in a rising IR environment ?
  • Should anyone using LOE be worried about the loan tap being turned off ?

IMO either lo-doc LVRs will decrease or the IRs will increase (or both) - they are unlikely to disappear completely.

So one of the risks of using a pure LOE strategy appears likely to eventuate.
 
I asked this question 3 weeks ago in Demise of the Lo-Doc.



IMO either lo-doc LVRs will decrease or the IRs will increase (or both) - they are unlikely to disappear completely.

So one of the risks of using a pure LOE strategy appears likely to eventuate.

Keith, will read that thread when I get a break at work later on.

I agree there are rational reasons why lo doc approvals could be cut back significantly in the next 12 mths. Being self employed and actively investing, I have to take this seriously.
 
I agree with your concern WinstonWolfe. I'd be concerned too.

We dont have a big problem like in the US. Sure, we have an increasing number of defaults, but the number is still very very small, and I'm not sure how many are from lo-doc or no-doc loans.

Typical political talk. Putting in a dumb solution to a problem that doesnt really exist to begin with.
 
The problem with US is not just Low Docs but ARM loans, which are rare in australia.

To be exact, ARMs are just Adjustable Rate mortgages (which is your standard variable rate loan). What IS rare in Australia but was used in the US are hybrid or exploding ARMs, which have a very low honeymoon rate and then they reset upwards, often quickly.
Alex
 
The statistics for defaults are something like this:

Regular full doc: 0.5%
Lo doc loans: 0.75%
Non confirming: 5%

The lo doc loans aren't the problem, it's the people who have credit problems who are taking non-conforming loans to solve their debt problems. There's a few realities that need to be considered for the regulation:

1. 95% of Lo doc loans are not the same thing as US sub prime loans.
2. Most Lo doc loans are not generally used by low income borrowers but the self employed, in most cases borrowers have a 20% or higher deposit.
3. Mortgage brokers do not approve loans, they match customers circumstances to lenders policies.
4. Most mortgage brokers already meet the proposed educational and disclosure standards.
5. Most people get into trouble because they continually take credit card limit increases, hire/purchase agreements and personal loans. All of which are unregulated.

I'm happy for the government to introduce stricter standards as most brokers already meet them and it'll get rid of some of the bad eggs (which there are in every industry).

To solve the problem, the government really needs to take a look at the lenders who are throwing money out the door without appropriate risk assessment policies. Tighten the belt on consumer lending.

90% of the defaults I've seen on credit reports fall into the following categories:

1. Telecom bills
2. Store credit
3. Credit cards
4. Personal loans

These are the areas which really need to be addressed. The other sector which needs to be addressed is bank staff who cut corners to meet unrealistic sales targets.
 
It's also worth pointing out that since deregulation of the finance industry, the lenders margin has reduced from over 3% to below 1%. This is a direct result of competition from Mortgage Managers and Mortgage Brokers. The consumer has been the largest beneficiary of deregulation. Lo doc & no doc loans are also a spin off of deregulation.

Regulating the market place will push up operational costs, which will be passed on to consumers. Ask any financial advisor.
 
Important to also note that the increasing defaults in the US has partly been due to honeymooon rates coming off 1-2% and up to 7% mark for the sub-prime loans. Adding fuel to the fire - these people shouldn't have had a loan in the first place. The result - foreclosures on steroids.
 
Important to also note that the increasing defaults in the US has partly been due to honeymooon rates coming off 1-2% and up to 7% mark for the sub-prime loans. Adding fuel to the fire - these people shouldn't have had a loan in the first place. The result - foreclosures on steroids.

Lots of these happening in the US in the next couple of months. Most of these loans are 2/28 or 3/27 (they reset after 2 or 3 years). Given that the mortgage peak was around 2004-05, the worst loans are starting to adjust.

Wait another couple of months after that for the increased payments to kill the borrowers.
Alex
 
Another hit for the 'pure LOE' approach, if anyone exists that actually does this..and what the detractors were warning about for some time...

GSJ
 
It could be a great time to go shopping in the US.


Yes

Having heard of the sorts of deals that Rick Otton was able to pick up in the S&L debacle when he was in America , soiunds like it could be a good case for taking a suitcase of Cash over to the USA ....:D

Cliff
 
It's also worth pointing out that since deregulation of the finance industry, the lenders margin has reduced from over 3% to below 1%.
Margins are currently much smaller than that - I doubt there are many lenders left running at over 0.40%. The majority of Fixed Rate loans in Australia are loss leaders for example, just to get enough customers who can't move lenders easily, to enact cross selling opportunities.

Intersting statistic from the 4 major banks - across the board, their top 20% of clients contribute 140% of their profits. In other words, 80% of their customers cost them money.
 
Actually, Mofra, only a very small percentage of loans are fixed.

I have a high percentage of customers who fix part or all of their loans, but I am literally way above the national average and I do mean way above.

I guess this reflects the amount of time I spend with a customer, whereas most borrowers get a pamphlet and 'sign here' and don't get any real explanation about loans or the opportunity to discuss how to manage them.

The fixing of the rate usually fixes the product, so if someone has spent a bit of time choosing a nice, flexible loan, they won't want to fix the darn thing and lose their deposit / redraw facility.

As with anything, price has little impact in the long term. We all want to have control over our finances, and fixing removes much of that control. In my experience, people don't fix because of the rate, but because of budget control. However, two , three or five years is a long time and much can happen in that time, making hindsight a wonderful judge of the wisdom of fixing the rate.

By the way, Pete, as you know Choice and other aggregators have recently tightened up membership requirements - the industry seems to be quite determined to be somewhat more regulated than any government requirement would impose. However, to the best of my knowledge actual complaints against brokers are few and far between. Perhaps that also indicates the quality of the customer - brokers tend to have experienced customers and / or customers who are prepared to research and ask lots of questions. I was at a seminar recently and the presenter said that by the time a customer has clicked 'enquire now' they have spent as much as 40 hours on the various websites and have a fairly good idea of what they want and are usually very well prepared for the loan interview.

This is quite different from, say, the 'typical' bank customer who has always banked with the Bandewallop Credit Union and simply walks up to the enquiry counter for their home loan. They do no shopping around as they wouldn't want to hurt the feelings of the nice customer service officer by getting their home loan from somewhere else.

There are many influences on a customer, no matter what that customer is buying. I always believed that they only thing we 'buy' are postage stamps, but now I can see that they are 'sold' to us, too.

Cheers

Kristine
 
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