Greed turns to Fear: Steve Mc Knights lastest Seminar email

I think this thread has gotten far away from my orginal intention, ie a shift of focus from greed to fear with marketing of property seminars etc.

$490 for a days training is reasonable, but I don't call it cheap. The content of the seminar may be worth 100's of times the entry price for those who take action. Steve's information could be founded on fundamentals, well researched and present a call to action for those investing in Australian property.

My point was that fear was being used to goad me into attending the course. ie. if you dont pay $490 you will lose money, because you dont know what I will tell you during the course.

To be honest I (too?) believe that property has marginally overshot its true value in Australia and the next few years will see near zero gains for the vast majority of residential realestate. Long term of course is excellent. Thus logic suggests that for investors wishing to general excellent returns finding a market with room for growth and the fundmentals to drive that growth is very reasonable action. I personally believe that if anyone can solve the issue of obtaining finance then investing in the major cities of Japan would be ideal buying at the moment, what better than cashflow positive buying at the bottom of the market, with 3.25% 30 year fixed loans, evidence that the market is finding its feet and finally inching forward!
 
Hi AL,

Your reasons sounds solid why to invest in Japan. I would like to ask what is happening with the population? Isn't it aging very fast and also shrinking?

I am not trying to take sides, just try to understand it better.

Thanks.
 
Tibor said:
Hi AL,

Your reasons sounds solid why to invest in Japan. I would like to ask what is happening with the population? Isn't it aging very fast and also shrinking?

I am not trying to take sides, just try to understand it better.

Thanks.

This is of course outside the threads point. Tibor, I agree population growth is negative and due to Japan's insistence to minimise immigration of non-Japanese blood into Japan (eg 3rd generation Japanese ancestry Brazilians ago who have no skills dont speak Japanese are OK, but professional koreans who speak Japanese fluently are NG), they will have a problem on the hands due to having the longest living population combined the western worlds lowest birth rate (or is it Singapore?).

However increase in realestate price I believe is not founded on the basis that population growth must occur. For example America has about 10times the people, a huge immigration intake, but average home price is around that of Australia.

Price increase is simply due to supply and demand. GenX and Y Japanese are now discovering the "lifestyle" way, they will want greater access to the "walk to lifestyle". The old "nose to the grindstone" work to death is slowly becoming a thing of the past. Last month a interview candidate ask me bluntly what time we go home!!! (She currently works for a bank I am sure she is forced to put in 18 hour days 6 days a week!) For those 50year/old salary men in Japan a career person would never think to ask such a think in a interview.

So I believe prices for prime lifestyle suburbs in Major cities to do well very well over the next 10 years.

The big problem is the regions, the small towns and cities, currently being supported by the governments "construction" programs, concrete mania! Roads that are little used, dam's that are not needed (for rice fields that are no longer used) etc. Price however in these places are very cheap, $30K for a 4*1room appartment blocks with very high yields....bit like Broken-Hill is now!
 
ger said:
I have read in his forum
that he has sold most of his OZ properties
and moved over to buying in NZ
maybe that's what the seminar is about

You are correct.
His seminar is about buying New Zealand property.

Again he seems to be going for cashlfow rather than long term capital growth.
 
It is possible that this could be the best $490 you've ever spent.

It is also possible he will tell you what I have saying for free: The Amero-centric financial Tower of Babylon is merely a tower of cards. I, of course, would not dare claim to know "the solution" so I can't even ask for a beer let alone $490.....But!

I guess I surf diffferent cyber-beaches than you you guys but I would bet a slab of XXXX that in a just a couple of years (hell! could be next week) some of the pillars of personal investment have fallen. Please don't be simplistic and assume there is one solution for all seasons.

Thommo...... Ringing the bell!
 
Michael Yardney said:
You are correct.
His seminar is about buying New Zealand property.

Again he seems to be going for cashlfow rather than long term capital growth.
Thanks for that Michael.

Steve has been in RE for about 5 years. His cashflow credo has worked very well for him- good on him. He's been quite successful, especially having got in at a good part of the cycle.

But Mr Yardney has been in the business for 30 years, and has been through a few cycles, and invested in both the down and up trends.

Jan Somers has been in the business through many years and through a number cycles.

Michael Croft, who is no longer active in this forum, has also been through three cycles. He doesn't need to work again if he doesn't want.

Steve apears to be seeing (my interpretation) that cashflow is too hard to get in Oz now, which is a good reason to be looking at NZ.

I've got some good cashflow stuff myself. I don't knock it at all.

But I'd rather follow the advice of people who have been through the down cycle, as well as the up cycle.

ATM, I'm looking for long term growth, and I'm prepared to sit- and to let the cashflow support the growth.

(Longer term, most properties become cashflow positive anyway)
 
Tibor said:
While I have no problem that ASIC should investigate people who are making claims to riches in a very short time as suitable for the average person (meaning anyone can simulate the presented information and could realistically expect similar results) I have MAJOR problem the Financial Planners would advise on property strategies based on thier current educattion.
Tibor,

I agree with you.

With one addition.

I reckon that ASIC should also look at people who make claims to riches in slower time frames as well.

There is not necessarily an inverse relationship between speed to riches & legitimacy (ie: fast = not legit, slow = legit....some slow may be non-legit as well....and some fast be quite legit).

I also have a relatively low opinion of the ability of financial advisors as a profession to advise people effectively on financial plans as they really only focus on a subset of asset classes and are paid by the funds they recommend that people invest in.

However, ASIC is the only game in town & better the investigations get held than they don't.

IMHO anyone who is legit should be going to ASIC & saying 'investigate what I'm doing to make sure I'm not breaking any laws' as a sound risk management strategy.

If they organisation/individual knows where they might cross the line ahead of time they can fix their programs.

And while they cannot claim endorsement from ASIC, they could certainly feel comfortable referring dubious people to ASIC and saying check us out.

BTW - I HAVE gone through this process myself & have found ASIC was very happy to support people who checked with them first before taking steps that might contravene accepted legal practice.

Common sense really :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Jap property

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/040704/1087373465641_1.html


always_learning said:
This is of course outside the threads point. Tibor, I agree population growth is negative and due to Japan's insistence to minimise immigration of non-Japanese blood into Japan (eg 3rd generation Japanese ancestry Brazilians ago who have no skills dont speak Japanese are OK, but professional koreans who speak Japanese fluently are NG), they will have a problem on the hands due to having the longest living population combined the western worlds lowest birth rate (or is it Singapore?).

However increase in realestate price I believe is not founded on the basis that population growth must occur. For example America has about 10times the people, a huge immigration intake, but average home price is around that of Australia.

Price increase is simply due to supply and demand. GenX and Y Japanese are now discovering the "lifestyle" way, they will want greater access to the "walk to lifestyle". The old "nose to the grindstone" work to death is slowly becoming a thing of the past. Last month a interview candidate ask me bluntly what time we go home!!! (She currently works for a bank I am sure she is forced to put in 18 hour days 6 days a week!) For those 50year/old salary men in Japan a career person would never think to ask such a think in a interview.

So I believe prices for prime lifestyle suburbs in Major cities to do well very well over the next 10 years.

The big problem is the regions, the small towns and cities, currently being supported by the governments "construction" programs, concrete mania! Roads that are little used, dam's that are not needed (for rice fields that are no longer used) etc. Price however in these places are very cheap, $30K for a 4*1room appartment blocks with very high yields....bit like Broken-Hill is now!
 
Aceyducey said:
Tibor,
...... financial advisors .......and are paid by the funds they recommend that people invest in.

Aceyducey
Hi Acey

We are seeing that this is changing. Many FA's now charge either an hourly rate or a fixed fee on an activity or per annum basis.
Often works out to be similar to "commission", sometimes more or less.

One of the down sides of this is that people with only a few thousand to invest don't like having to pay an front fee and an annual fee, and because of the complexity of the industry, many FA's don't see the value in servicing those clients.
It is a bit like Accountants. If you want a full service ie "advice", you go to someone that offers it, and be prepared to pay, or if you just want your tax return done, you go to a basic, cheaper service, like a HR Block.

The days of the big (and unwarranted/undisclosed) commissions are soon to be a thing of the past, and in my opinion, overdue. :)

GarryK
 
I don't like Steve's choice of advertising hyperbole either. However, i think he drove home the point about positive cash flow, enough for it to become a cliche- which is a valuable investment strategy. Further Steve seems to be prioritising realized gains over buy and hold. I think he will do very well from this. It is a more efficient strategy to move your capital in total to the next strongest performing investment, rather than waiting for the next cycle in one asset class only. (that is provided you predict the cycles and classes correctly. And that might be the makings of the next great investment book).

However, I cannot help but think that investing to take advantage of cycles or pure speculation is not really that smart or productive, nor constructive for society as a whole (even though I do it passively myself). In the end, it is just a form of pyramid selling. You buy something, wait for a lot of others to buy in, then sell to the highest bidder. Nothing gets created, or made more cost effective. Society doesn't benefit one bit from that transaction. In fact, those who buy in last, end up losing in relation to the others.

To me, real smarts is to develop new ways to produce goods and services more cost effectively.
 
thefirstbruce said:
I don't like Steve's choice of advertising hyperbole either. However, i think he drove home the point about positive cash flow, enough for it to become a cliche- which is a valuable investment strategy. Further Steve seems to be prioritising realized gains over buy and hold. I think he will do very well from this. It is a more efficient strategy to move your capital in total to the next strongest performing investment, rather than waiting for the next cycle in one asset class only. (that is provided you predict the cycles and classes correctly. And that might be the makings of the next great investment book).

However, I cannot help but think that investing to take advantage of cycles or pure speculation is not really that smart or productive, nor constructive for society as a whole (even though I do it passively myself). In the end, it is just a form of pyramid selling. You buy something, wait for a lot of others to buy in, then sell to the highest bidder. Nothing gets created, or made more cost effective. Society doesn't benefit one bit from that transaction. In fact, those who buy in last, end up losing in relation to the others.

To me, real smarts is to develop new ways to produce goods and services more cost effectively.

I read Steve's recent monthly email (not the advertising one) about his realising gains and reinvesting with some interest. I haven't run the numbers on any hypothetical scenarios yet, but my gut instinct says that his approach is inefficient as it results in a lot of tax being paid. Provided you can access the increased equity without selling, why would you sell pay a lot of tax and then invest the much reduced proceeds into a new investment when you could take say 80%+ of the new equity as an increased loan and invest in the new asset?

I suppose one circumstance may be if your portfolio has properties which will require substantial maintenance for no/minimal increase in rental yield in the short-medium term. Rather than have that low-return capex, maybe you could sell out and buy into a newer property to keep the average age of your portfolio (and thus hopefully your maintenance costs) down...

What do people think?

Not sure I agree with your musings in the middle paragraph though...buying low and selling high is the basis of all capitalism. Value is subjective, price the evidence of it. If you buy for $10 today and tomorrow sell for $15 to someone who holds the asset for a year and then sells for $30, who's to say you've done them wrong? :confused: All that's happened is you thought it was worth less than or equal to $15 (or had a pressing need for cash) and the person who bought it thought it was worth at least $15 and presumably a little more... Who's right? who's wrong?

Cheers
N.
 
NigelW said:
Not sure I agree with your musings in the middle paragraph though...buying low and selling high is the basis of all capitalism. Value is subjective, price the evidence of it. If you buy for $10 today and tomorrow sell for $15 to someone who holds the asset for a year and then sells for $30, who's to say you've done them wrong? :confused: All that's happened is you thought it was worth less than or equal to $15 (or had a pressing need for cash) and the person who bought it thought it was worth at least $15 and presumably a little more... Who's right? who's wrong?

Cheers
N.

I dont think that buying low and selling high is the basis for capitialism! I agree with 1stBruce, the basis of capitalism is the creation of value. It is use of the capital fund (human/social capital plus financial capital etc) to create something of value...ie of (significantly) more value that the combined costs of the component parts (marketing, inovative research, planning, materials, distribution, sales etc) . Traders (who do nothing much other than buy low, sell high) do have a place in capitalism, ie finding people/companies who value a item more highly than the seller, valuable yes, but they are not the driving force behind capitalism.

I hope as property investors we are each adding to society in a small way. First and foremost we are providing places for people to live; then we are also saving "tax payers" money that the government would otherwise need to spend on "public" housing; we also contribute because we are paying lots of money back into society: interest, which is basically a premium on the cost of funds to the bank and mostly used to pay bankers salaries, dont forget land taxes, managing agent fees (salary again), tradesmen (fixing broken stuff)...and the list goes on and on and on (depressingly long list). The point that as property investors we are not as many believe locking up valuable social/capital resources, but we are really generating value to the society and as such we are as "good" capitalists. Amen
 
always_learning said:


I dont think that buying low and selling high is the basis for capitialism! I agree with 1stBruce, the basis of capitalism is the creation of value. It is use of the capital fund (human/social capital plus financial capital etc) to create something of value...ie of (significantly) more value that the combined costs of the component parts (marketing, inovative research, planning, materials, distribution, sales etc) . Traders (who do nothing much other than buy low, sell high) do have a place in capitalism, ie finding people/companies who value a item more highly than the seller, valuable yes, but they are not the driving force behind capitalism.

I hope as property investors we are each adding to society in a small way. First and foremost we are providing places for people to live; then we are also saving "tax payers" money that the government would otherwise need to spend on "public" housing; we also contribute because we are paying lots of money back into society: interest, which is basically a premium on the cost of funds to the bank and mostly used to pay bankers salaries, dont forget land taxes, managing agent fees (salary again), tradesmen (fixing broken stuff)...and the list goes on and on and on (depressingly long list). The point that as property investors we are not as many believe locking up valuable social/capital resources, but we are really generating value to the society and as such we are as "good" capitalists. Amen

We might just have to agree to disagree about the motivations of most people. I don't disagree with your description of the innumerable ways that property investors contribute to the economy and the community. What I think we disagree with is the motivations of property investors to do what they do. Whilst no doubt we would all like to think that by investing and making ourselves more wealthy we are helping people, but my contention is that the PRIMARY motivation of all investors is to make a profit. The fact that we help the economy and the community is merely a pleasant by-product...

I'm not saying that helping others isn't a good thing - the most commercially successful people are in fact the biggest donators to charity...but you can't give away billions to worthy causes until you've got-em in the first place ;)

Cheers
N.
 
NigelW said:
I read Steve's recent monthly email (not the advertising one) about his realising gains and reinvesting with some interest. I haven't run the numbers on any hypothetical scenarios yet, but my gut instinct says that his approach is inefficient as it results in a lot of tax being paid. Provided you can access the increased equity without selling, why would you sell pay a lot of tax and then invest the much reduced proceeds into a new investment when you could take say 80%+ of the new equity as an increased loan and invest in the new asset?.

Nigel, I would only 'sell' assets if tax and leverage opportunities in addition to expected 'other asset' cg supported it. The other scenario is whether it is better to 'buy' at the top of a property boom. There is no leverage advantage, as equity remains flat. Whereas one can take advantage of margin lending in equities.
 
Are we helping?? or just ripping others off?

G'day people,

I read (somewhere, a long time ago) that one of the major reasons that the "Great Depression" was so great (read, large, huge, mammoth - NOT fantastic, tremendous!!!) was that the smallest group of people held the largest amount of wealth. It went something like this (DON'T quote me, I'm relying on a rusty memory...)

"The wealthiest 2% of people owned 80% of the wealth" - and, when times got hard, that top 2% didn't eat ten times as much breakfast, run their car ten times as much as before, donate ten times what they were before therefore the depression went on, and on, and on, and ......


So, as I strive to better the lot of myself, and my family, I take heart in the fact that I am helping to stave off another depression. Whether I "buy low and sell high", whether I add value or not, I am serving the greater good anyway by striving. If numbers of buyers and sellers aren't equal, then prices move. If someone accepts my price when I'm buying, I'm helping someone out (even if they wanted more, otherwise, WHY did they choose to sell to me?) - and, after buying, I assist this country in providing housing.

Yes, there'll be those that invent great things, and add value THAT way. But I'm not that smart. What I CAN do is to help myself, and help others, in a way I can.... (see above) I'm helping money to "go around" in being an investor. That's OK by me, :)

Regards,
 
Nice to discuss this on a boring day!

Naturally, the primary motivation behind the act of investment is to generate a return, and in specific regard to property investment most likely is a income stream (rental) and/or increase in equity ( paper gains) and final if sold net profit (whats left over after you sell, return the finance, CGT, costs).

To argue in the extreem (which is a poor form of countering any argument), I and most others wouldn't for invest in ventures that caused what I believed is a significant negative impact upon others, for example investing in a furniture factory in 3rd world country who used child labor.

Now lets look at the profit motive and what I think it means. Profit for me means a surplus, what is left over after paying all costs from providing goods or services to a customer.

As for the profit motive, actually profit in a capitalistic system or any system profit appears to be the "the goal", however the real goal is the good things the profit (financial surplus) is used achieve.

I would like to imagine an analogy, take oxygen, great stuff! I need it, in fact if I deprived of it for 3 minutes I am in deep sh.t! However the fact that I need oxygen or I will die in 3 minutes doesnt mean the purpose of my life is to breath in and out 12 times a minute. I need to breath to supply myself with oxygen, but what motivates me (my purpose) day to day is normally my family, work, friends etc. In a capitistic system profit is like breathing is for a biological system; it keeps everything working and without it everything quickly stops.

Profit like breathing is not the primary purpose of the system, it is what you convert your oxygen or profit into that is the purpose, in biology normally this means little copies of you or in capitalism it means profit (surplus) can be used for creating more/better value to society.

So my point is the outcome of the capitistic system is to generate value, create what didnt exist before, success in this should generate a profit which is like oxygen a vital ingredient to keep society strong and those who live in it happy. Good governance of a capitistic system would mean that "all eyes are kept on the prize" (value generation) rather than valueless hording and speculation of assets/capital.

So the best question would be to ask if property investment locks up too much of societies capital for too low value activity? (is it too much locking up of "limited" financial reserves? is property a too low a value activity? )
 
I always like to consider opportunity costs when trying to clarify a point, something many investors do not consider.

Instead of thinking how moral or beneficial it might be for property investors to provide housing to the unfortunate who can't afford it, and also free the government of that burden, why not consider how you might more positively help those who can't afford housing.....i.e. by creating successful businesses that provide better paying and more secure jobs.

To my mind, we need more ppl with capital applying their intelligence to providing jobs. I don't like everything about the USA, but I do like their can do get up and go attitude towards business.
 
always_learning said:
So the best question would be to ask if property investment locks up too much of societies capital for too low value activity? (is it too much locking up of "limited" financial reserves? is property a too low a value activity? )
Under the structure of our system someone has to own everything....

So if investors don't own the properties someone else will.

Thus financial reserves are tied up regardless.


Look, this discussion is about things that don't really exist. Money is a concept humans created to help us assign a relative value to parts of the universe around us. We choose to accept it as a reality as part of the game we play called economics.

Money is only limited because we choose it to be. That fits the rule of our game. We also assign values to resources based on what we think is their quantity, availability & cost of usage (plus a fudge factor for hope, greed & fear). In many cases these values are highly spurious and don't reflect the real limitations of these resources.

At the end of the day the universe doesn't care how humans assign value for resources.

The resources exist in a certain quantity. That's the limiting factor, not the dollars we count them with.

It's not how many dollars there are that could be redirected into 'higher value' financial pursuits, it's how much space we have and how efficiently we use it - for housing, for recreation, for industry, for food production and for the other species on our planet (listed in the order we regard their importance)

Don't confuse the numbers with what is actually being counted.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
thefirstbruce said:
.

Instead of thinking how moral or beneficial it might be for property investors to provide housing to the unfortunate who can't afford it, and also free the government of that burden, why not consider how you might more positively help those who can't afford housing.....i.e. by creating successful businesses that provide better paying and more secure jobs.

To my mind, we need more ppl with capital applying their intelligence to providing jobs. I don't like everything about the USA, but I do like their can do get up and go attitude towards business.

Hi 1stbruce

I agree, and doesn't the housing industry do a wonderful job of creating those business' and jobs, across a range of industries. :)

GarryK
 
Aceyducey said:
Under the structure of our system someone has to own everything....

So if investors don't own the properties someone else will.

Well I would say the most likely event under alternative systems the properties would not have been developed or built. ie they would not exist.
Thus financial reserves are tied up regardless.
Or the social fund (human, financial) would be squandered on low value tasks.
Look, this discussion is about things that don't really exist. Money is a concept humans created to help us assign a relative value to parts of the universe around us. We choose to accept it as a reality as part of the game we play called economics.
Agreed, money is a human concept! It doesn't exist without humans. My understanding is that money was first used as a token to exchange for food. ie. money is exchanged for food. For example Edo times in Japan each regional lord had to pay a sum to the shogun, this sum was notionally a number of rice bushels, ie 120,000 per year, it was a tax/rent for the regional lord (and kept high enough to keep the lord from getting too much money and thus be able to raise the funds to buy arms and train armys). Anyway tokens where used to exchange a bushel of rice for other things and that token could be used to exchange back to rice, ie the basics of money.
Money is only limited because we choose it to be. That fits the rule of our game. We also assign values to resources based on what we think is their quantity, availability & cost of usage (plus a fudge factor for hope, greed & fear). In many cases these values are highly spurious and don't reflect the real limitations of these resources.
As in the aftermarth of the WWII, in Japan money became worthless, food was the only thing of true value. My wife's grandmonther tells the story of how she took 4 handwoven kimono's to the country (money was pointless) and exchanged it for about 3KG of potato's, a high quality handwoven silk Kimono these days sells about $10K, so that was $40K for 3KG of grubby. potatos'.

So money has no real value, the value is simply because society agrees that it can be used to exchange for goods/services/resources. If something overturns the applecart (ie losing a war), money quicky has no value and food (if it is limit) quickly becomes the item of true value to a hungry society.

Of course these days the food problem is not a big issue, most people in the developed world dont work on food production.

However I dont believe money is unlimited out of choice, money is limited because money is a token to trade for real goods/human services/resources, since these resources are by definition limited, money is limited. Innovation and focused effort, ie finding a ways to adding value to existing resources, building the better mousetrap, finding a quicker way to build a house, renovating a old house etc, creating something more valuable out of something less valuable, this is "creating money" as it as "created value".
At the end of the day the universe doesn't care how humans assign value for resources.

The resources exist in a certain quantity. That's the limiting factor, not the dollars we count them with.
I believe the limiting resource is the value we generate from the resources. Stupid example: we can use a limited resource sand (Silica) to make bricks, window glass or computer chips, same basic resource different value purpose. (yes I know the resources need to create a factory to change silica into a computer chip, vastly exceeds the actual silca resources that will be actually consumed in making computer chips).
It's not how many dollars there are that could be redirected into 'higher value' financial pursuits, it's how much space we have and how efficiently we use it - for housing, for recreation, for industry, for food production and for the other species on our planet (listed in the order we regard their importance)

Don't confuse the numbers with what is actually being counted.

So this is what I dont understand, lets say my company has a choice; should it spend a billion dollars building a golf course for it's executive employee's or should it spend it on developing a new software application that will deliver real improvements and produce greater efficiencies for those companies who buy and use the software? For example IBM in the late 50's early 60's spent $1B on developing the IBM system 390, with this system many companies were able to free up significant back office resources (clerks etc).

For the sake of argument lets say the building of a golf course or the creation of a new generation of business software consumes the same amount of resources (land to make the office or golf course; humans to write programs/plant the trees/landscape) and cost the same amount of money, ie the resources used are the same. I would say that the limited resources are being used to generate 'higher value' activities in creating a new business software application over the reduction in golf handicap for the executives. From the investment in innovation to create the new software existing and future companies can redeploy existing resources (human, finanical) for other more important activies, ie companies become more effective/efficient. Thus from my point of view 'higher value' and your term of 'efficent use' of limited resources are more or less identical.
 
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