Heat pumps - are they viable with new rebates?

I have read there is now a $1600 non-means tested federal govt rebate to install either a solar or a heat pump hot water system (when replacing an electric storage system). This is on top of the renewable energy credits you get already, and on top of any state govt. rebates. However, I'm in the ACT and there is no state rebates.

So, if you have to replace your PPOR electric system anyway because it is really small, very old and almost dead, would it be viable to spend the extra to install a heat pump (I don't have gas)? Our household has only two people and I am thinking purely in returns via lower electricity bills over the next 5 years max. I am also worried about the systems breaking down or not working well in cold weather and frosts, as my current electric storage system is indoors so does not have these issues. This also means extra installation costs to relocate the plumbing - I think in total around $1500 extra to get the heat pump vs another electric storage system, after all rebates etc.
 
Thanks, I do understand the rebate, it is $1600 cash back from federal govt plus renewable energy credits which normally come off the sale price of the system. Plus any state rebates which I can't get in the ACT.

I had worked out that the heat pump would be well worth it for an extra $1500, after all rebates, over the cost of replacing with an electric storage system. The heat pump system should break even after around 5 years and after 7-10 years, assuming electricity costs continue to increase well above inflation, I would be well ahead.

HOWEVER, it seems the heat pumps have a short life span. An electric storage system could last 20 years, with 10 years mostly trouble-free, and repairs could be done by any plumber/electrician, would probably not require special parts, and be fairly cheap. However the heat pump, having moving parts much like an air conditioner, has a short life span of 7-10 years. Parts may be difficult/expensive to obtain for repairs, and you may need a variety of tradespeople with special skills to repair it.

So my conclusion is I am still much better off to get the electric storage system, unfortunately.

Solar is I think, still far too expensive so I haven't even considered that as I don't think I would ever be able to recover the cost via lower electricity bills. Value add is not a consideration as the house is a run down place and the money could be better spent on necessary repairs. Not to mention, I have had solar installed in two IPs and on both occasions the installer has flooded the roof, and I've had to have carpets and ceilings replaced. So this is a big extra cost if the installer doesn't come to the party and fix the damage they have caused.
 
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