Housing market misery to continue?

[Ausprop]

Perth house slump continues

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/8416284/perth-house-slump-continues/

Seems Perth could continue to be the leading indicator for real estate in this country - it had the big boom, the big bust and now the agonising grind downwards. I expect this painful grind to continue and will be a general trend across the country. If the resources boom takes off before Chna collpases then the tide will turn. Until then, holding neg geared properties whilst being grinded day in day out - not fun

 

[bene313]

As I understand listings are up on number of buyers in the market in Perth. We are heading into a buyers market. Not to sure about other states but the Propertunity newsletter today was saying similar about NSW.

 

[Ausprop]

As I understand listings are up on number of buyers in the market in Perth.

not sure what this means? are you saying listings are rising?

 

[bene313]

I don't have links to the sources but according to those I've spoken to, the ratio of listings to current buyers in the market has shifted favourably towards the buyer.

 

[Ausprop]

yeh ok. there seems to be a lot of reasonably priced stock - well reasonable compared to what it was worth but still shocking yield and hold costs

 

[TKline]

Agree that Perth is leading the cycle down.

 

[chb]

I can feel in my area things slowing down as well..

 

[Samwise]

Been looking at houses lately... there are buyers out there but they are being more picky. The good stuff still gets snapped up but the dross stays around for ages it seems.

Utterly failed to buy a place last week, got purchased with cash after first home open (for which there was a queue). This was a $1.1m place

An agent told me (yeah, what do they know ) that the magic number of listed properties in Perth is 12,000. Less than this, its a sellers market, more than this, buyers market, equal to this, neither. At the moment there are 16,000 properties listed.

 

[lizzie]

from what i've seen in the past, and watched on ss, perth tends to have wilder swings (up and down) than other capital cities. have i read this right?

also, why do you believe is perth leading? perhaps it is following from the dip sydney had up until 18mths ago.

 

[tcocaro]

Its blase comments like this that makes me turn away from your post as a whole.

Before China collapses? You threw that comment out there like as if its a fact of life or common knowledge. I dont think anyone looks towards Chinas economy and thinks its on the brink of "collapse" so if your views hinge on this occuring soon then I beleive we can safely dismiss your views?

If the resources boom takes off before Chna collpases then the tide will turn.

 

[Corey Batt]

Bearish is the new black.

 

[Ausprop]

Its blase comments like this that makes me turn away from your post as a whole.

Before China collapses? You threw that comment out there like as if its a fact of life or common knowledge. I dont think anyone looks towards Chinas economy and thinks its on the brink of "collapse" so if your views hinge on this occuring soon then I beleive we can safely dismiss your views?

fair enough, I thought it was accepted that the current boom can't continue. I suppose I have ridden enough cycles to know that everything is a cycle. until then - "to infinity and beyond!"

 

[sammmeee]

I love articles like that. The more doom and gloom the better. Sellers believe it and are ready for low offers. Bring on the scare campaign!

What I don't understand is why people are selling now? I get the forced sales and change of circumstances... Why would investors want to sell when there is blood in the market.

 

[Ausprop]

reasons to sell now? little or no prospect of cap gains whilst holding a loss making asset. even worse (the double whammy) is the property keeps falling in value whilst you have daily carry costs.

FWIW it appears to me the momentum is for property prices to keep falling

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

I love articles like that. The more doom and gloom the better. Sellers believe it and are ready for low offers. Bring on the scare campaign!

What I don't understand is why people are selling now? I get the forced sales and change of circumstances... Why would investors want to sell when there is blood in the market.

+1. I like the way you think.

 

[csc2]

there is no magic wand no matter what people think...the cycle has turned and it wont be reversing for some time in many areas..

im happy for it to keep sliding till the market bottoms out and go from there..if thats 12 mths or a few years so be it.....nothing any of us can do by posting and saying otherwise.

the trend is down in most areas, its a good thing that the market is cooling gradually in my opinion..............

none of us want the bum of the market to fall out overnight....

 

[tom32]

fair enough, I thought it was accepted that the current boom can't continue. I suppose I have ridden enough cycles to know that everything is a cycle. until then - "to infinity and beyond!"

I don't think you can assume that China will stop growing any time soon. Growth in a developing country can be sustained for decades.

This however does not mean the minerals cycle will not roll over in the next few years.

The minerals cycle however will rollover, this is a sure thing. It always does. Even if China goes on consuming as it is now soon enough between Australia, Brazil, India and China themselves there will be enough ore production capacity to fuel current levels of growth in China, India etc. The problem is for the minerals cycle once the supply meets demand prices fall dramatically and we have a long period of little capital investment in the minerals game.

This certainly does not appear to be the case for the next couple of years but as soon as night comes after day mineral prices are unsustainable as they are now. There is way too much profit in the game and so supply is rapidly ramping up to meet demand which are where all the capacity constraint concerns are coming from. This capacity building phase of the cycle.

 

[random]

I love articles like that. The more doom and gloom the better. Sellers believe it and are ready for low offers. Bring on the scare campaign!

What I don't understand is why people are selling now? I get the forced sales and change of circumstances... Why would investors want to sell when there is blood in the market.

Well , it could be now or never so if your not in a when the chips are down still manageable position just encase , then best sell and best make that "right now " . May not be able to next yr.
I have this problem with one of mine and decided to sell because I couldn't carry it if the going gets rough next yr. I'm worried it might not go before say Jan because I'll be stuck with it by then if it hasn't and that'll get messy . Have a plan B but that's also messy.
Or should I say this will be happening a lot if things slow down much more because many inverters would have only thought of growth and rents going up , not flat or backwards.

Cheers

 

[gooram]

Well , it could be now or never so if your not in a when the chips are down still manageable position just encase , then best sell and best make that "right now " . May not be able to next yr.
I have this problem with one of mine and decided to sell because I couldn't carry it if the going gets rough next yr. I'm worried it might not go before say Jan because I'll be stuck with it by then if it hasn't and that'll get messy . Have a plan B but that's also messy.
Or should I say this will be happening a lot if things slow down much more because many inverters would have only thought of growth and rents going up , not flat or backwards.

Cheers

Punctuation... heard of it?

 

[gooram]

Perth house slump continues

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/8416284/perth-house-slump-continues/

Seems Perth could continue to be the leading indicator for real estate in this country - it had the big boom, the big bust and now the agonising grind downwards. I expect this painful grind to continue and will be a general trend across the country. If the resources boom takes off before Chna collpases then the tide will turn. Until then, holding neg geared properties whilst being grinded day in day out - not fun

This is pretty sensational Ausprop. Such emotive language reminds me of The West Australian or A Current Affair. Prices falling 1 or 2% on such a small minority of sales in Perth does not constitute a 'big bust', or 'agonising grind'.