How low can we go?
- Thread starter ernie
- Start date
Great charts crc_error. Was looking at some myself and was tempted to call 3500 as well, but with PEs and yields looking good at this point (just over 5000 now) I thought the 4000 level was more appropriate. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets closer to your call though, especially if we see more implosions like the ones we've seen in the LPT sector.
Cheers,
E
Cheers,
E
Well, the LPT sector typically has had high yeilds, and look how much it has already fallen, so since the ASX200 companies already pay low dividends, I would not be suprised if they have more to fall, considering allot of their pricing is based on future growth, which now is looking like pulling back, so the price will have to be based on current yeilds with less emphisis on future potential growth.
Add to that higher interest rates, so investors will need higher dividend yeilds as well.
Why would you buy a stock with 2.5% dividend with slowed global growth, when a term deposits are 8.1% PA
Add to that higher interest rates, so investors will need higher dividend yeilds as well.
Why would you buy a stock with 2.5% dividend with slowed global growth, when a term deposits are 8.1% PA
my uneducated guess is 4900 and a time frame of next 2 months.
If you allow for a certain % average growth rate over the years then you don't get a straight line - you get an accelerating (exponential) one. Put it on a log scale - then it should be straight. Doesn't matter on all the common short term graphs (difference is hardly visible), but go to anything long term and you'll need to do it.
Do the graph properly (log scale) and then you can try and draw some sensible guesses....
4900 - will settle at the TOP of the existing channel.
Our Aussie $ is worth more now than it was in past years, so my guestimate is 4855. 
A couple of weeks ago I would have been with Brenda around the 4850 mark; now I think the drop can't stop quickly enough to stop there, and I'd be looking at around 4715, coinciding with Sep 05 top, Nov 05 top, Dec 05 bottom, and Jun 06 bottom. I was predicting 4850 by the March solstice on the 21st; now that it looks like it may drop further I'm not sure if it'll get there that quickly, or whether it'll be a more gradual drop over a longer timeframe.
An amateur's predictions, just for fun
An amateur's predictions, just for fun
A reverberation near 4800 (+-40 points)
Why
We've already priced in the recession, we've already priced in the credit crunch, this latest round is for the falling USD (something the US didn't price in).
Around June
Start of US summer, big sell off before everyone heads to the Hamptons (or at least out of town), which then gives everyone a chance to really think instead of reacting to the mood
Just my opinion
Why
We've already priced in the recession, we've already priced in the credit crunch, this latest round is for the falling USD (something the US didn't price in).
Around June
Start of US summer, big sell off before everyone heads to the Hamptons (or at least out of town), which then gives everyone a chance to really think instead of reacting to the mood
Just my opinion
i think i will wade in at 4800 or so. if it drops to 4000 from there i can handle the 20% drop and i dont really see it heading for much below there, despite that economist yesterday suggesting 2600 or whatever it was.
Similar threads
