How we will change

[Corsa]

Hi All

I came across these interesting article's today in the AFR Magazine. It discusses what the population expectations are for each city in the next 20 years. It also references what we are likely to be living in. The article presents a compelling case for real estate of choice being apartment style or studio in the future. The article also talks about how we are likely to be commuting from the country or coast etc.

What are others views on what these means for the future of housing? A number of somersoftians subscribe to only buying houses with land components and not apartments. How will these articles predicting future needs effect these view points?

Looking forward to hearing what you all think

Best Wishes

Corsa

As people shift around the continent in search of a future or leisure, there will be geographic winners and losers. Given our current rates of fertility, ageing, and family break-ups, Australia will be the land of the studio apartment. Lone-person households will represent up to a third of all households and the number of couples living with their children will barely increase or, more likely, decrease.


City, Year 2005, Year 2021, Increase
Hobart, 198,000, 203,000, 5,000
Darwin, 107,000, 141,000, 34,000
Canberra, 322,000, 365,000, 43,000
Adelaide, 1.1m, 1.2m, 100,000
Perth, 1.4m, 1.8m, 400,000
Brisbane, 1.7m, 2.3m, 600,000
Melbourne, 3.5m, 4.2m, 660,000
Sydney, 4.2m, 4,9m, 740,000

Source: ABS

"More generally, the work challenge is keeping up with the ever-escalating pace of chnage. You may be living close to the office, or telecommuting from the coast or country, but your probably in an apartment rather than a house. And while your residence may have fewer residents, the general house rule is "more is more"".

 

[Cat09Tails]

Corsa,

I think these demographic changes are upon us already. If I look at my own demographic and location, most people I know of my age group with similar lifestyles, would prefer to live in units and apartments with pools, gyms and cafes, and to be in the city. I can't think of anyone I know of aspiring to lived in Kellyville, or even in the suburbs anywhere on a 1/4 acre block.

I think so many more people are looking for closeness to transport, and proximity to culture. My car doesn't even get used, I'm so close to everything. I walk to work, walk to the harbour, and walk to cafes. I'm sure I'm not alone in this "aspiration" to not live in the mortgage belt.

Cat

 

[luckyone]

What is AFR Magazine? Do you mean Australian Financial Review (the paper)?

 

[Corsa]

What is AFR Magazine? Do you mean Australian Financial Review (the paper)?

Hi Luckyone

The Australian Financial Review, once a month publish an AFR Magazine which is included in the paper distribution. This month they are actually celebrating there 10th year since the launch of the magazine.

Cheers

Corsa

 

[Hulkster]

It's an interesting concept. I'm sure that over time we will see situations played out in Sydney & Melbourne particularly that mirror New York City.

Quite often essential services people such as police, firemen, ambo's, teachers etc cannot afford to live in the city itslef so commute from far outside - much like a Sydneysider commuting from Katoomba by necessity rather than lifestyle choice.

 

[luckyone]

Hi Luckyone

The Australian Financial Review, once a month publish an AFR Magazine which is included in the paper distribution. This month they are actually celebrating there 10th year since the launch of the magazine.

Cheers

Corsa

Thanks for that Corsa, didn't realise they have a magazine within the paper. Only ever look at it online.

 

[Cat09Tails]

Hulkster,

Yes- a lot of research has been undertaken recently about the lack of affordable rental properties in the city for those undertaking essential services. Here's an article on how this is being addressed provisionally:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/14/1097607373639.html

Cat

 

[quoll]

Why does Adelaide have such a bad reputation and why is it that we get such a small percentage increase in population?

The food here is great
The wine is fantastic
The drivers are d..heads
The weather is good (bit of variety)
Business seems OK

Why don't people want to live here?

My blinkered view point
quoll

 

[Corsa]

Hi Quoll

I love Adelaide to and think it is a great place! Friends/collegues from interstate might say it is a bit dull and lacking action, but secretly they are probably a little jealous of the lifestyle that is offered here including great value food & wine, lower commuting times, and lower cost of living. For young people that stay in Adelaide I think there is great opportunity to make a difference.

From the statistics regarding population growth, I was surprised to see that Tasmania has such little population growth prospects, only 5,000 in 20 years? With the recent mini boom that Tasmania has experienced, I wonder what the people who invest/ive in Tasmania think of this information and whether it will effect there decisions to buy or sell?

Why does Adelaide have such a bad reputation and why is it that we get such a small percentage increase in population?

The food here is great
The wine is fantastic
The drivers are d..heads
The weather is good (bit of variety)
Business seems OK

Why don't people want to live here?

My blinkered view point
quoll

 

[MichaelW]

Corsa,

I started a thread on this exact topic myself a short while back which got some interesting responses.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20277

My personal conclusion was that even if household demographics change, there will still be demand for house and land lots. I personally would never live in a unit, and know most of my friends are in the same boat. How could I have a dog if I lived in a unit?!?

Overall, I believe a net growth in population within the major centres will only increase the demand on existing housing stock and place more emphasis on the more exclusive house and land option. Apartments will continue to sell, but will remain the choice of those that can't afford house and land within acceptable commuting range, IMHO.

Take the AFR conclusions with a grain of salt, their written to be evocative but, again IMHO, have little substance.

Regards,
Michael.

 

[chook]

I certainly can't see us becoming a nation of people living in bedsitters or studio apartments. There is no way I want to live in anything that small even when I'm 92 !

 

[MichaelW]

I certainly can't see us becoming a nation of people living in bedsitters or studio apartments. There is no way I want to live in anything that small even when I'm 92 !

Chook,

Agree completely! My wife and I are DINKs and we live in a huge 3 double-bedroom house (all with built-ins) on a 1,500m2 block. We used to live in a unit in Mosman but hated it, all the continuous conflict with neighbours and the noise and the body corporate and the limitations on pets and the smell and the cockroaches etc etc etc.

There will always be a strong demand for detached housing IMHO.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Michael Croft]

Hi,

Even if the fin review mag is correct in it's assessment, it is still the value of the land component that will drive property prices over time. Land appreciates and buildings depreciate. So bulldoze the McMansion and put what the punters want on it - a modern six pack, with turbo spa and orgasmatron - whatever it takes to achieve "highest and best use" aka yields.

My take on the demographic shift that we are in the midst of is; that resort style living, in smaller communities with, low crime rates, good facilities (for aging singles and couples) and good climate, will be the go for the next decade or two.

regards, MC

 

[MichaelW]

City, Year 2005, Year 2021, Increase
Hobart, 198,000, 203,000, 5,000
Darwin, 107,000, 141,000, 34,000
Canberra, 322,000, 365,000, 43,000
Adelaide, 1.1m, 1.2m, 100,000
Perth, 1.4m, 1.8m, 400,000
Brisbane, 1.7m, 2.3m, 600,000
Melbourne, 3.5m, 4.2m, 660,000
Sydney, 4.2m, 4,9m, 740,000

Corsa,

The biggest take away I got from this is that Brisbane seems the best IP option for my strategy. They have the largest % increase based on their relatively low base for eastern seabord city centres. So, if I can get a nice house and land in Brisvegas, close to town with good access to amenties etc, then this should represent good CG over the mid to long term. I know I can buy very will in Brisbane now for around $450K. I'll probably be picking a couple of them up in the next 3-6 months.

Thanks for the post,
Michael.

 

[Michael Croft]

Oh, and they will want at least 3 bedrooms (one for themselves, one study, and one for the visiting kids/grandkids/friends) and and two bathrooms. MC

 

[Michael Croft]

And they won't want people living above or below them and they will want a nominal amount of greenery (a no care garden), so a townhose will be the desired accomodation. But hang on, this type of accom has a footprint, and that means they need ........... land.

MC

 

[madmurf]

Interesting article

IMHO I don’t agree with the ideal life of living in the city.
Im one of those sea change people after spending 8 plus years in Melbourne Im now based in the out skirts of Bunbury WA.
The only regret I have is I should have done it earlier. I live 200 meters from the Ocean and just love the life style compared to the city.
I could think of nothing worst than living where I work ahhhh.
Maybe I’m in minority and the rest love smog, crime and the constant rush.

I would really like to know in this forum how many people have done the sea change thing and moved back to a major city.

PS Hobart is too cold.

 

[Hulkster]

Why does Adelaide have such a bad reputation and why is it that we get such a small percentage increase in population?

The food here is great
The wine is fantastic
The drivers are d..heads
The weather is good (bit of variety)
Business seems OK

Why don't people want to live here?

My blinkered view point
quoll

Not a fan of Adelaide personally but it doesn't seem totally unliveable. Maybe it's a location thing - not really East Coast not really West Coast - the Nebraska of Down Under

 

[richmond]

I pretty much grew up in Melbourne, but was sick of life in the city, so packed up and moved an hour north to 60 acres in the hills... I still work in Richmond though, takes about an hour to get there, should be less once some more roadworks are finished... haven't regretted it at all, especially with bub number 1 on the way.

cheers
r

 

[Cat09Tails]

Hey Murf,

I moved to Sydney from Wollongong a few years ago. I find that Sydney far outweighs anywhere I have lived (a bunch of places starting with W) in terms of culture and events. It all depends on what you're looking for in life- some like quiet, some like loud

Michael, in terms of demographics and what people enjoy, I guess I am talking about X-Gen inner-west folks who live and work around the Universities. If people aren't living in the inner west, my friends generally spend their weekends there - so may as well have an "inner-west change". And none of us go over the Harbour bridge unless absolutely compelled to- hehe- call us provincial, but there you have it!

Not sure one can entirely dismiss demographic predictions "with a grain of [Bernard?] salt" if they disagree with one's own lifestyle/investment choices. If anyone shows me that the future of Sydney is on a quarter-acre block an hour out of the city, i'll buy it.

Cat