House values and rents have trippledI have retired at 56.
Haven't you been listening to the D&Gers? Houses dropped by 40% and you went bankrupt.
Hypothetical. August, 2033.
- Thread starter topcropper
- Start date
Haven't you been listening to the D&Gers? Houses dropped by 40% and you went bankrupt.
This is classic economics and it works for widgets. It isn't working for oil, gold, silver, rare earths. It will work for a while with coal and iron at today's prices but uranium will need a doubling of price (at least) before free market miners will be interested in putting capital into the mines.
According to Wiki:
Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field in Mexico and one of the largest in the world. It was discovered in 1976 by a fisherman, Rudesindo Cantarell. It was placed on nitrogen injection in 2000, and production peaked at 2.1 million barrels per day (330,000 m3/d) in 2003. Production declined rapidly after that, and by 2009 had fallen to 772,000 barrels per day (123,000 m3/d), making it Mexico's second largest oil field after Ku-Maloob-Zaap.[1] In November 2006 Pemex reported that Cantarell had produced 11.429 billion barrels (1.82×109 m3) of oil.[2]
Cantarell is the sweet, light crude American refineries like but production is still declining rapidly.The UK is now a net importer of oil, the North Sea has declined so much. The North Slope in Alaska is nearly exhausted but they are not allowed to drill for more. World wide, shale oils will be beset by the problems being encountered by the Cougar Energy underground gasification project in Qld. People are very intolerant of energy projects that make mistakes. The Alberta tar sands are a mining operation, and while there is a lot of tar there, there are physical limits to the rate at which it can be extracted. And it takes two barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas to extract three barrels of tarry oil. Like using caviar to make mock crab, as someone suggested.
You should learn these facts. Once you do I doubt you can ignore them but that is your right.
House values and rents have trippled
Topcropper sold out to Chinese interests in 2023 after none of his daughters or son-in-laws showed interest in the farm. Got a motsa. Retired to his Macmansion high up in the hills overlooking the Liverpool Plains, although he also spends plenty of time fishing for bass at his Lifestyle farm on the Manning river out of Gloucester and in his 40th floor penthouse unit, on the beach at Iluka.
See ya's.
My prediction is that at around 25% of the people currently reading this thread will have died by 2033. Not from some doomsday scenario but through the natural course of life. Quite sobering when you think about it.
(T S Eliot)
"Oceanographer John Delaney is leading the team that is building an underwater network of high-def cameras and sensors that will turn our ocean into a global interactive lab -- sparking an explosion of rich data about the world below---"
New sets of eyes, many new eyes...
http://www.ted.com/talks/john_delaney_wiring_an_interactive_ocean.html
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Ok...Or it could be different?
We could be the WORST hit from climate change and run out if water etc. We could poison all our water from mining or coal seem gas and QLD becomes a desert state and property crashes.
There could be wars over oil as we didnt find a substitute.
Anyone seen that movie "The Road" Creepy!
War is one thing that worries me and the affects of war.
Then there is climate change nad its affects.
Then the affects to the environment and how that will play out as we know the eco balance is delicate. So the fall out may be something small the eventually affects us all.
But in the mean time we can all have fun and live life and if it does happen thank god we werent born into it and its all we know!
We could be the WORST hit from climate change and run out if water etc. We could poison all our water from mining or coal seem gas and QLD becomes a desert state and property crashes.
There could be wars over oil as we didnt find a substitute.
Anyone seen that movie "The Road" Creepy!
War is one thing that worries me and the affects of war.
Then there is climate change nad its affects.
Then the affects to the environment and how that will play out as we know the eco balance is delicate. So the fall out may be something small the eventually affects us all.
But in the mean time we can all have fun and live life and if it does happen thank god we werent born into it and its all we know!
Joyce (or is it Mat?) For ME peak oil is more real and more imminent and if Matt Savinar in The Oil Age Is Over (nothing special, just one I read) is to be believed, there is a similar potential for disaster. He used Easter Island as a pointer to what can happen.
I'm not multi skilled and can only worry about one thing at a time. For me that's PO.
I'm not multi skilled and can only worry about one thing at a time. For me that's PO.
What are the odds for sunfish..??
See ya's.
Hey! Play nice or you'll be put out of the sand pit.
In light of the last couple posts, TC....be careful of what you wish for....
One thing for sure is what people predict that far out will never happen....
some might but most won't....who would have thought we'd be ruled by a ranga in 2010....!!!
this is a very good post.
Why? because it shows that the world goes on, and that people adapt.
The profit motive coupled with the economics of demand & supply does wonders for 'fixing' things up.
I'm sure the Romans felt that way too.
Your probably right Bill.
I just wanted to keep my hypothetical situation based on food and grain rather than oil. Keep it simple. Add oil shortage to the mix and it gets far worse.
A food shortage crisis wont be as frightening as an oil shortage one. A food shortage will mainly effect Africa and other countries that pose no military threats. It's not like a heap of Ethiopians or Nigerians are going to come over here and take our food. It's only going to be the most poverty striken who lose that one.
An oil shortage crisis would be much more serious, as of course it also involves food production, and it would involve nations like the US and China and Russia etc, more chance of serious and disasterous global conflict.
See ya's.
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In light of the last couple posts, TC....be careful of what you wish for....
:
You were right about our local member selling out eh? You must get all the goss..
See ya's.
i'm sure they do too.
The average 'Roman' life has improved over the last 2000 years.
Unfortunately their neighbours have also been adapting, maybe more so on a relative basis, hence the 'movement in relative living standards'.
You are doing your bit as well, you invest in small resource start ups, this 'helps' increase future supply either directly or through 'alternatives'.
You were right about our local member selling out eh? You must get all the goss..
See ya's.
...told ya...!
So, do the concerned farmers of the Liverpool Plains still think highly of Tony Windsor...?
Their mantra was....and I quote a certain member of that group..."if you don't support us we won't support you...."
So....looks like Windsor will lose all those votes...?
Back on Topic.....do you have a Prime Minister for Australia in 2033 TC...? Name and party...?
Just don't worry about it Mate,i'm more interested on the World price for Wheat ,never seen a spike in prices like that,and Oil is starting to run again..willairYou were right about our local member selling out eh? You must get all the goss..
See ya's.
http://nqr.farmonline.com.au/news/n...wheat/world-wheat-prices-surge-5pc/81389.aspx
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WEPCGIPPS&f=W
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTOTWORLD&f=W
hi
Back on Topic.....do you have a Prime Minister for Australia in 2033 TC...? Name and party...? mr lee, mr sanjoy or mr suk one of these three
buy the time 2033 comes around we will vote with our minds and we will have a three split
the haves
the have nots
and the brains
the brains will be like the worker bees
the haves will just control everything (similar to now just alot more removed then they currently are)
and then the have nots the old pirates or mercanaries of this world guns for hire but there guns will be alot smaller, alot more remote and alot more deadly these are like our taliban now
as for me
the average life expectance for male now is well under this number so to get to 2033 my and most of the males batting average has togo up or I will be all out and watching that world from the stands having a beer with michael,and elvis
Back on Topic.....do you have a Prime Minister for Australia in 2033 TC...? Name and party...? mr lee, mr sanjoy or mr suk one of these three
buy the time 2033 comes around we will vote with our minds and we will have a three split
the haves
the have nots
and the brains
the brains will be like the worker bees
the haves will just control everything (similar to now just alot more removed then they currently are)
and then the have nots the old pirates or mercanaries of this world guns for hire but there guns will be alot smaller, alot more remote and alot more deadly these are like our taliban now
as for me
the average life expectance for male now is well under this number so to get to 2033 my and most of the males batting average has togo up or I will be all out and watching that world from the stands having a beer with michael,and elvis
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