i called it first! GFC Mk2.
- Thread starter Aaron Sice
- Start date
It looks like the Eurozone countries have put enough protection in place to fight the markets.
up and down and sideways movements again
and probably sooner rather than later.
World Races to Avert Crisis in Europe - WSJ.com
So we'll be back to the good old
up and down and sideways movements again
and probably sooner rather than later.
World Races to Avert Crisis in Europe - WSJ.com
For how long? From what I can see, the bailouts, and rescue/defence packages just keep increasing in size (this time $1T AUD).
But you got me convinced BV. Clearly everything in the world is rosy, when these sorts of figures are needed. http://www.somersoft.com/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
Yeah, ASX caught wiff and it's all yipee ki yay. 
Expect Dow and S&P500 to be up tonight till the next tranche of bad news.
All of this is akin to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The conspiracist inside of me however wonders at the timing of said news. Is it market makers playing the channel game of rises and falls?
Anyhoo, I'm not convinced it's all peaches and cream
Expect Dow and S&P500 to be up tonight till the next tranche of bad news.All of this is akin to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The conspiracist inside of me however wonders at the timing of said news. Is it market makers playing the channel game of rises and falls?
Anyhoo, I'm not convinced it's all peaches and cream
Suddenly, it is all becoming quite predictable......
all kum bay ya here.......
all kum bay ya here.......
Who knows?
Perhaps until UK becomes the next target?
Yes, I know it's not pretty out there and it will be a slow and painful world recovery but we should be ok.
Australia is the best economy in the Western world atm.
We'll have to thank ol Johny and Costelo for this.
Nice analogy there Sunfish
Yes and they would have taken more of our cash if they had managed to keep the Eurogame played for a bit longer...
Yeah, ASX caught wiff and it's all yipee ki yay.
All of this is akin to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The conspiracist inside of me however wonders at the timing of said news. Is it market makers playing the channel game of rises and falls?
Anyhoo, I'm not convinced it's all peaches and cream
There is an old army saying: 6 P's (Prior Preparation Prevents P**S Poor Performance). (maybe its from somewhere else but it was drummed into me in the reserves often enough).
But its just as relevent to investing in my opinion.
The real homework takes place outside of Mr Markets movements (my favourite times is weekends when the market is closed, hence no distraction).
You do your research, try to come up with an intrinsic value range, and then just wait for Mr Markets mood swings, to create buying or selling opportunities.
Someone posted an excellent cartoon on this forum about the madness of crowds (the cartoon with people ranging from buy to sell to buy). It really applies to the last couple of weeks.
Personally i have no idea whether this latest prop up by the european central banks will work or not. I DO HAVE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT VIEW THAT IT WILL BE MEDIUM TERM INFLATION POSTIVE.
But then inflation is actually ok for the 'quality company'. Why because they usually have pricing power, so they will just pass on any inflationary increases.
Hence quality companies can actually act as a natural hedge against inflation.
Hence the legitmacy of technical analysis. All of the market isn't equally informed nor equally rational.....
Hence the reason TA does'nt work unless curve fitted.
You mean 'hence the reason fundamentals don't work unless curve fitted'.......
unless you want to extrapolate between macro and micro fundamentals, with TA.
If TA didn't exist we'd have to invent it, which is why it was invented in the first place. FA is worth SFA to a trader and they can't be said to be "gambling".
I no longer take funnymentals very seriously, at least for those stocks that are researched by all the brokerages. BHP price fluctuates quite a lot but is almost entirely pushed by outside forces: Taxes are proposed, Rudd gets savaged in the polls, China publishes good figures, China has a slump.
For someone building a portfolio I would recommend reading the world news and forming an opinion about the sectors likely to do well. Then you pick something you like in that sector (throw a dart even!) and watch the results. If it thrives, you keep it, if not sell and decide whether your opinion of the sector or the stock was wrong and try something else. Let the winners run and cut losses short.
Money management is prolly more important than stock picking. Most guys seem to do better if they reduce the volume of trading, but that I don't know that for sure.
Oh! I nearly forgot: Fortune favours the brave. A good small cap will outperform the majors, even in the same sector.
I no longer take funnymentals very seriously, at least for those stocks that are researched by all the brokerages. BHP price fluctuates quite a lot but is almost entirely pushed by outside forces: Taxes are proposed, Rudd gets savaged in the polls, China publishes good figures, China has a slump.
For someone building a portfolio I would recommend reading the world news and forming an opinion about the sectors likely to do well. Then you pick something you like in that sector (throw a dart even!) and watch the results. If it thrives, you keep it, if not sell and decide whether your opinion of the sector or the stock was wrong and try something else. Let the winners run and cut losses short.
Money management is prolly more important than stock picking. Most guys seem to do better if they reduce the volume of trading, but that I don't know that for sure.
Oh! I nearly forgot: Fortune favours the brave. A good small cap will outperform the majors, even in the same sector.
agree SF......momentum, retrace, relief rally, congestion, distribution, accumulation, fear, greed, uncertainty......if it was all about fundamentals, none of this would occur.... price movement would be even more predictable.....everyone would pile in and out of a share at the same hour of the same day based on the same fundamentals.
Can someone please tell me what the end-game is here? All I see is stimulus and bailout across the world. First it was hundred of millions, then hundreds of billions, now we are in trillion dollar territories. Where does this all end?
I see either a global collapse of economies OR mass printing money to fund their debts, leading to what we all fear, that's right say it with me "hyper-.........."
I see either a global collapse of economies OR mass printing money to fund their debts, leading to what we all fear, that's right say it with me "hyper-.........."
Total debts, private and government are way beyond the capacity of the debtors to repay. A continuation of the status quo is not an option. California is the seventh largest economy in the world and they are in big trouble. They have pushed taxes so hard, tax payers are moving interstate so they will need to be bailed out, along with over half the US states.
As much as I can't picture it, an inflationary depression is a real possibility.
If you are right sunfish...is having large debts in households a good thing? From my understanding, wages must rise quickly to match a hyper inflation scenario....that means our debt is much smaller which we can pay off quicker...though interest rates will get in the way a bit as they skyrocket...
If a hyper inflationary depression sets in it is a good idea to have all your tangible assets in the form of food. Also a ready supply of fresh water is advisable, preferably from an up river source. Shotguns/rifles and an inexhaustible supply of ammunition is also a good investment, anything else is just window dressing.
so whats the consesus (besides food, water, guns & ammo etc etc)...do you want to be having investment properties? WIll servicing the debt become easier or harder?
Surely if you have 500,000 in debt, and your wages rise to 200,000 a year because of inflation, then you as a debtor can pay off your houses quiet easily?
Surely if you have 500,000 in debt, and your wages rise to 200,000 a year because of inflation, then you as a debtor can pay off your houses quiet easily?
