I can see a trend developing:

[skater]

From today right? meaning if the property market as a whole rises say by 5% over the next 12 months it then needs to drop by 35% correct?

Good to see you put a prediction down, I say your off by about 25%-35%.

Yeah! And the whole of the country too. Not just one State or City?

 

[hobo-jo]

My prediction has already been stated in other threads, flat market -5 to +5% range, in nominal terms. I beleive markets lean more in the positive mark than negative for the next 12 months.

For how long do you think property will trade "flat".

I've stated my opinion on here before that I think we will see nominal falls of around 15-20% over several years (could vary a lot on government intervention) and then probably several more with growth lower than inflation to end up with real falls of 25-30%. I think the ABS will show -5% or greater for 2011 (next 12 months).

Reality is that property is overpriced in today's market, yields are terrible, there is a chance of further rate increases making them worse, they are priced too high as a multiple of income, even if the bubble doesn't pop in a spectacular fashion it still does not make sense to buy and hold today (an average property, no doubt like any market there is still the odd deal or two around).

 

[bluestorm]

From today right? meaning if the property market as a whole rises say by 5% over the next 12 months it then needs to drop by 35% correct?

Good to see you put a prediction down, I say your off by about 25%-35%.

From when I said the peak of the market was before (Jul/Aug 2010).

I'll say 20% absolute, and 10% inflation related to the end of 2012.
That is 20% actually price falls across the board in all states, and then another 10% eaten away by inflation (due to no growth). (total 30% in real terms) to end of 2012.

 

[Deltaberry]

Housing has been crashing for years when priced in Silver/Gold, an asset/currency that Sunfish has advocated on this forum for sometime

It's been falling relative to the price of cabbages in China too, the asset/currency I like to advocate on this forum

 

[Ausprop]

seems sunfish has gotten out from behind the keyboard and is sunning it up:

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/8506046/sunfish-closes-north-cottesloe-beach/

 

[Marty McDonald]

He he he... I thought it was going to be a link to a property related story.

 

[Ridin-High]

For how long do you think property will trade "flat".

I've stated my opinion on here before that I think we will see nominal falls of around 15-20% over several years (could vary a lot on government intervention) and then probably several more with growth lower than inflation to end up with real falls of 25-30%. I think the ABS will show -5% or greater for 2011 (next 12 months).

Reality is that property is overpriced in today's market, yields are terrible, there is a chance of further rate increases making them worse, they are priced too high as a multiple of income, even if the bubble doesn't pop in a spectacular fashion it still does not make sense to buy and hold today (an average property, no doubt like any market there is still the odd deal or two around).

Good yields in south west sydney at the moment, with little negotiation you can get 5.0 - 5.5% nett yields. Some tax benefits as well, i don't think that is terrible.

But you can still make money in a flat market, just do your renovations.

Edit: Hobo how do you suggest getting exposure to gold and silver + where do u educate yourself about the fundamentals of it?

Regards,

RH

 

[devo76]

how about a 10% to 15% drop over 5 to 7 years( i could wear that). Inflation adjusted this would give the crash crew a good result and it would not destroy property holders( yes it is a loss but think long term). After this point it picks up again with a new generation on board.

Everyone wins

 

[HomeBuyerStrike]

From today right? meaning if the property market as a whole rises say by 5% over the next 12 months it then needs to drop by 35% correct?

Good to see you put a prediction down, I say your off by about 25%-35%.

105% to 70% is 33.33% drop. It's basic maths, but of course you were rounding up.

 

[Aaron Sice]

how about no drops and some steady, adjusted with inflation growth and all the trolls and bears follow louis the fly and drop dead?

 

[HomePage]

A decade of stagnation, which in effect would be a decent drop in real terms after inflation effects, would bring prices back palatable prices for the next generation. Heck, even Beehop would be able to afford a place at such prices without hocking his life away. Australia would be a better place as a result (the price correction that is, not just Beehop's hopes).

 

[devo76]

A decade of stagnation, which in effect would be a decent drop in real terms after inflation effects, would bring prices back palatable prices for the next generation. Heck, even Beehop would be able to afford a place at such prices without hocking his life away. Australia would be a better place as a result (the price correction that is, not just Beehop's hopes).

But what happens at the end of that 10 years ........BOOM...
Off they go again and another generation will "think" they are priced out forever.

The circle of life continues

 

[HomePage]

But what happens at the end of that 10 years ........BOOM...
Off they go again and another generation will "think" they are priced out forever.

The circle of life continues

I don't thing booms (or busts for that matter) are good for the country in general. Slow and steady as she goes IMO is a better way for things to run.