Good money if you can get that up to 40hrs per week.
oven just died, just been agonising repair vs junking it - think i will junk it
Australia's Forthcoming Construction-Led Property Boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Good money if you can get that up to 40hrs per week.
oven just died, just been agonising repair vs junking it - think i will junk it
lol. Your track record with predictions is awful Shadow. You get 80-90% of them wrong.
Seems a bit presumptuous to suggest that traction in the media will lead to something happening. The media (much like yourself) are often wrong and if anything a good contrarian indicator.
Sydney construction has bounced off the lows:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/09/nsw-drives-dwelling-construction-bounce/
But to reach "construction boom" levels they would still need to almost double (e.g. to reach the highs seen early last decade).
Maybe the FHB influx will be the start of it, but I don't think it's likely.
Seems a bit presumptuous to suggest that traction in the media will lead to something happening. The media (much like yourself) are often wrong and if anything a good contrarian indicator.
Sydney construction has bounced off the lows:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/09/nsw-drives-dwelling-construction-bounce/
But to reach "construction boom" levels they would still need to almost double (e.g. to reach the highs seen early last decade).
Maybe the FHB influx will be the start of it, but I don't think it's likely.
Did somebody suggest that?
You're getting cause and effect mixed up.
It's true that I only get 80-90% right, but I'm happy with that... nobody is perfect.
The main thing is I got the big one right... i.e. still no property crash, as I have consistently and correctly predicted for over half a decade now.
And that long succession of bears over the past 5-6 years who kept predicting 40% crashes... where did they all go?
How's that recession coming along?
Most people that make extreme predictions (e.g. construction boom or 40% crash) get it wrong. A moderate outcome that lies somewhere between the extremes is usually what we see.And that long succession of bears over the past 5-6 years who kept predicting 40% crashes... where did they all go?
lol, you mustn't have a very good memory (or have missed his many poor calls) if you think Shadow has a good track record with predictions. Not saying mine is perfect, but it's much better than Shadow's (80-90% wrong).
You misunderstand HJ. When Shad said Sydney construction boom in 10/11, he meant media report of possible increase in sales of existing apartment stock (subject to finance not falling through) in late 2012.
Easy mistake to make if you don't read carefully.
LOL, you're just jealous because this adds to my 80-90% success rate.
Considering I first started predicting the construction boom half a decade ago, and always gave around 2011 as the timeframe, you would have to admit if it begins only one year later in 2012 then it was a pretty damn good prediction from 4-5 years prior to the event! Certainly a lot better than those predicting imminent housing crashes for the past half a decade, especially crashes induced by huge credit tightening. By the way, how's that old 'credit tightening induced crash' coming along? Is credit getting much tighter these days... that crash must be on its way soon, no?
By the way, Terry McFadgen, External Monetary Policy Advisor to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from 2004 to 2006, agrees with me on the construction boom...
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From what I hear, lower end is still going ok - but this is always the case - largest pool of buyers. Middle and upper; not so flash. At best; treading water.The main thing is I got the big one right... i.e. still no property crash, as I have consistently and correctly predicted for over half a decade now.
And that long succession of bears over the past 5-6 years who kept predicting 40% crashes... where did they all go?
Make no mistake; we're in one - but the big fat elephant in the room which is the mining sector has squashed the economy over into the corner and is sitting on, hiding it out of sight, while the elephant handler which is the Gummint, is holding it's lead and shouting "It's all good, look at my big healthy elephant!"
Check out the info from the Australian Construction Industry Forum - new info due out on 29/10/12.
Latest NSW dwelling approvals data...
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/8731.0January 2013?OpenDocument
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/8731.0January 2013?OpenDocument
Latest NSW dwelling approvals data...
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/8731.0January 2013?OpenDocument
Not sure what your interpretation of the chart you have attached is, but when taken out over the long term the current data suggests that dwelling starts have returned to their long term average. Perhaps a little further to go, but I wouldn't be extrapolating this graph out making assumptions that this trend will continue. Nor suggesting that it is the start of the next "boom"....
its always nice to pick your starting point at the lowest and fast forward to now. You have data stretching back to July 1983, perhaps a graph of that would be more beneficial, so people can see the trends over a significant period of time....
I believe the trend will continue and early 2012 will go down in history as the start of the Sydney construction boom.
Did you mean early 2013? I don't think early 2012 can be claimed as the start retrospectively given our current state of affairs and even early 2013 is a bold call...
Building approvals fall against expectations in Jan
Business Spectator said:
Housing approval numbers to fall short of RBA expectations
Northern Star said:
And you know I'm a bullish fellow, but I just can't see the turnaround just yet. I reckon it will come but maybe not in 2013.
Cheers,
Michael
The January dip is seasonal, and those are the national figures in the headline.
If you look at the trend for Sydney/NSW, there has been a fairly steady uptrend since early 2012... http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/8731.0January 2013?OpenDocument
The ABS trend series is more useful than the monthly figures which bounce around a lot and are affected by seasonality.
So a couple of years after the crash in construction (when you said we'd see a boom) we are finally returning to long term averages. Well done Shadow. You really called this one.
Broken clock, twice a day, etc.
When's that recession going to hit us.
The links below your posts suggest that you are into selling gold aren't you? Why on earth are you in a property forum? With respect Hobo, gold has not exactly rocketed for quite some years. Even after adjusting its price for inflation, gold is close to its all time high since humans first started walking the earth. The time for buying gold was back in 2000, not now. I see why you are selling the stuff and not hoarding it yourself.
What was that about broken clocks?
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