I can smell the fear

[pieman]

from the D+G'ers that maybe, just maybe...prices wont fall 40%
that they wont be able to purchase that house over looking the water for 300k
that they will have to work harder to save more of a deposit.
that their purchase of gold to avoid the financial end of the world looks like it may have better invested into the share market/property.
that although "any moron could've made money in the last 10 years in the property ponzi scheme" they didnt and havent.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Pieman,

I think this statement is incorrect....

any moron could've made money in the last 10 years in the property ponzi scheme

Clearly they couldn't, that is why they congregate at the 'World-wide property value decline' forum.

After a plethora of recent reading, I actually believe the possibility of real financial D&G is greater than at any time in modern history. However I would still put the odds at less than a 10% chance. Mind you if there was real financial armageddon, those 'morons' would probably suffer more than the property investors on this forum, for reasons that they won't figure out until it is too late.

bye

 

[GreatPig]

I'm just wondering why there's been so much D&G'er bashing going on here recently - practically an Internet version of a pogrom.

Who are you all really trying to convince?

GP

 

[evand]

Or what are you really scared of?

I'm just wondering why there's been so much D&G'er bashing going on here recently - practically an Internet version of a pogrom.

Who are you all really trying to convince?

GP

 

[jaycee]

To be honest, that thought has crossed my mind too.

wait for the backlash

 

[chilliaa]

Refer to my other posts.
Because they increase the cycle of fear and during times of market panick (ie when the **** has hit the fan and we need cool heads accessing the situation) are a wealth hazard to the gullable.

NOW BACK TO YOUR CAVES.

 

[Trogdor]

I think some slight humility is in order.

Just as the world's share markets were "unlucky" that the US govt didnt save lehman, and things got out of control - the aus property market in a way is "lucky" that the reserve bank cut rates very very aggresively early on, the govt doubled the FHBG, provided several rounds of aggressive stimulus to the economy. Also lucky that the aus banks are relatively in good shape and could continue lending., and the govt guarantee was provided

It could have easily gone differently despite no change in "property" fundamentals.

I.e. Reserve bank waiting til much later to cut rates, or for the big 4 banks fail (perhaps if the guarantee wasnt provided or if circumstances were different) , or if the FHBG wasnt there.

To be honest, im very happy prices havent fallen 40% for many reasons (including my portfolio) but also admit there is a big element of luck that things have gone as well as they have for australian resi property.

 

[GreatPig]

are a wealth hazard to the gullable

The gullible are their own biggest wealth hazard. You know what they say about a fool and his money.

One thing's for certain: the gullible shall not inherit the Earth (of if they do, they won't hold on to it for very long!)

GP

 

[steveadl]

I'm just wondering why there's been so much D&G'er bashing going on here recently - practically an Internet version of a pogrom.

Who are you all really trying to convince?

GP

Probably something to do with the fact that they've gone much quieter all of a sudden now that things are looking better. Funny how so many of the 'new' 100 bombardment post wonders have disappeared.

 

[Aaron Sice]

meh - AUD at over 0.80USD (where was the 0.35USD???) and the ASX got down to 2700 territory before punching straight back to 4000 today, not dipped to 2200...

pay's to follow your gut sometimes, reagrdless of the fundamentals.

i'm glad i stocked up when i could.

 

[evand]

If you are referring to NR's posts, you need to look at his time frame. He said
it will happen in late 2010 i think.

Still, i think his calls were brave but a bit extreme. But who knows whats around the corner, now is not the time for hubris mate. In fact it never is.

meh - AUD at over 0.80USD (where was the 0.35USD???) and the ASX got down to 2700 territory before punching straight back to 4000 today, not dipped to 2200...

pay's to follow your gut sometimes, reagrdless of the fundamentals.

i'm glad i stocked up when i could.

 

[BayView]

I'm just wondering why there's been so much D&G'er bashing going on here recently - practically an Internet version of a pogrom.

Because it's fun teasing blind fanatics who are in panic mode.

Who are you all really trying to convince?

GP

Them - because they are always watching and listening to us.

We know they are lurking.

Hi guys. Bought anything lately?

 

[HiEquity]

But who knows whats around the corner, now is not the time for hubris mate. In fact it never is.

Totally agree. Level heads are needed now and both of the extremes in this debate don't qualify on that score...

Mind you this debate does depend on the stage you are at with your investing. If you're young and just starting out then leveraging up could be a smart move as you have little to lose, can work off the mistakes and won't go anywhere otherwise. If you have a lot to lose then you may want to take a balanced view in the short term at least and think about risk management.

The more often you bet the farm the more likely it is you will lose it. The success stories from doing this (like the Murdochs for example) are pretty few and far between!

 

[asdlellel]

So those of us who expect bad things to come in the economy are D & G ers. Ok, if that term satisfy's you, then ok.

Anyway, should people like me who expect worse things to come, I will not be here to say, 'I told you so', but to read (and maybe) discuss these various issues on forums like this that interest me.

Not sure why everyone here has a sudden sense of jubilation. Is it the positive GDP??? Have people looked into the detail, beyond the superficial .4 increase? There is more to it. Those stats are not as good as many may think.

Anyway, either way, I don't wish anyone to be hard done by in financially hard times, but it is a side affect.

Keep watching people. This is not over because of some monthly positive or negative stats, this is a long term thing. That is a major reason why I urge caution to those I talk to.

Good luck with your investments.

 

[HandyAndy888]

Who cares...I can smell bacon

 

[asdlellel]

Who cares...I can smell bacon

Bacon . . . .

Might be smelling beef in the near future as some bulls get slaughtered.

 

[devo76]

So those of us who expect bad things to come in the economy are D & G ers. Ok, if that term satisfy's you, then ok.

Anyway, should people like me who expect worse things to come, I will not be here to say, 'I told you so', but to read (and maybe) discuss these various issues on forums like this that interest me.

Not sure why everyone here has a sudden sense of jubilation. Is it the positive GDP??? Have people looked into the detail, beyond the superficial .4 increase? There is more to it. Those stats are not as good as many may think.

Anyway, either way, I don't wish anyone to be hard done by in financially hard times, but it is a side affect.

Keep watching people. This is not over because of some monthly positive or negative stats, this is a long term thing. That is a major reason why I urge caution to those I talk to.

Good luck with your investments.

I think very few believe we are out of the woods just yet. I think its more a reference to where many D&G pushers thought we would be at this moment in time and our actual position at this time. Things are not great thats for sure but considering the magnitude of what is happening around the world, we are doing quite well.

 

[evand]

Good point. Maybe thats the divide between the bulls and the bears. Its not hard to be blindly optimistic when you don't have a lot to lose.

Of course i realise its not always the case but a very good point with some validity.

Mind you this debate does depend on the stage you are at with your investing. If you're young and just starting out then leveraging up could be a smart move as you have little to lose, can work off the mistakes and won't go anywhere otherwise. If you have a lot to lose then you may want to take a balanced view in the short term at least and think about risk management.

The more often you bet the farm the more likely it is you will lose it. The success stories from doing this (like the Murdochs for example) are pretty few and far between!

 

[evand]

Any minor sign of escaping the recession causes jubilation and hubris on here. people have to realise that if the market was left to deal with the GFC we would be up ***** creek without the paddle.

Every western country has had to drop rates drastically, pump billions (trillions?) of dollars into the economy to hold its head above water. It seems to be working so far.

The fact is tho, the money has to come from somewhere and the price will be paid a bit further down the track. It always is.

We are not out of the woods yet so investing newbies shouldn't get too excited just yet. Put the Omni back in the ice bucket for now guys.

So those of us who expect bad things to come in the economy are D & G ers. Ok, if that term satisfy's you, then ok.

Anyway, should people like me who expect worse things to come, I will not be here to say, 'I told you so', but to read (and maybe) discuss these various issues on forums like this that interest me.

Not sure why everyone here has a sudden sense of jubilation. Is it the positive GDP??? Have people looked into the detail, beyond the superficial .4 increase? There is more to it. Those stats are not as good as many may think.

Anyway, either way, I don't wish anyone to be hard done by in financially hard times, but it is a side affect.

Keep watching people. This is not over because of some monthly positive or negative stats, this is a long term thing. That is a major reason why I urge caution to those I talk to.

Good luck with your investments.

 

[BayView]

So those of us who expect bad things to come in the economy are D & G ers. Ok, if that term satisfy's you, then ok.

It's not the D&G that is the problem Asdlellel.

Even I have predicted little or no growth this year and probably most of next.

The problem with the D&G is the degree of the predictions.

It is often extreme, and sprouted by people with seemingly no real experience.

Therefore, we older folk with as few cycles and a few runs under the belt just laugh, then get annoyed when they keep regurgitating the same old thing and eventually tell them to bugger off.

I gets annoying after a while hearing that extreme aspect of it when you've seen that it (the market) just keeps plodding on, going in cycles and starts all over again.

And, as has been said before a million times; it only applies when one HAS to sell.

The houses will all still be there next week.