Insight SBS Tues 7.30 Sep 9 - Bursting the Bubble

[allmine]

We have often watch that show. Last night was just another example of the producers trying to squeeze far to big a subject into too short a time.
They should have just stuck to onesubject only and ran with it for the whole program. That would then allow for a more indepth discussion.
If what the HIA guy says is 50% true, how would the ecconomy survive if the main assest(s) we have which is what finances everything looses its value by such a dramatic amount in so short a time. He has to have said what he did to boost his indutries sales numbers. Surley.
I like the big bad property invester wont let the single mum have a home bit....well, I could see it is what they wanted to say anyway.
Good luck to the teacher who made the most of the cheaper homes to.
The 100grand guy, I think I seen him on the show before also.

 

[lizzie]

She lasted less than 10 minutes before declaring they were all a bunch of whinging losers.

i switched over to grand designs ... i have no time for the whingers who are content to whinge but not spend any time to work out a plan to get out of their own mess.

 

[MichaelW]

Great show. The major take away for me was that the economy is going nowhere but down. And property is intimately linked to the economy.

Hi Evan,

So what you're really saying is my bottle of scotch is looking more and more like a sure bet! You still reckon interest rates are going to hold up if the "economy is going nowhere but down."...



If interest rates fall 1% or more then I'll be piling into the RE market as will a lot of cashed up investors. I'm sitting on about half a mill in undrawn LOCs and cash in offset accounts just waiting for the investing environment to improve. I love this D&G stuff as it spooks the little guys and the mums and pops and makes the buying opportunities that much better!

Cheers,
Michael

 

[Aimjoy]

My views for what they are worth are that we all get what we expect in life. In any market there are those ppl doing well and those ppl doing badly and watching those doing well.

My wife watched the show with me as well. I'm a keen investor, she takes a back seat. Her view after watching was - "well what a confusing situation to be in. Look at the comments:
Gittins says flat or slightly falling for a few years before rises
Other economist say 40% falls
Eslake says 1 - 2 years then rises
REI guys says rises soon
Polly says 1 - 2 years then rises
How can you know what to do?

(Apologies if I did not get the above quite right, but the point I'm making is the very divergent views held).

At the end of the day, I can't but think that if you dropped the 40% falls economist into Western Sydney with a bunch of money - he'd just sit on his hands waiting for the market to fall. If you dropped the reno kings in - they'd make a bunch of money in the same market.

Hence my statement at the beginning of this post.

 

[evand]

I wish it was that simple. We have a commodities boom to consider into the equation.

I dont think a lot of chased up investors will pile into the market until yields improve out of sight.

Its great we all have different opinions, thats what forums are for.

If interest rates fall 1% or more then I'll be piling into the RE market as will a lot of cashed up investors. I'm sitting on about half a mill in undrawn LOCs and cash in offset accounts just waiting for the investing environment to improve. I love this D&G stuff as it spooks the little guys and the mums and pops and makes the buying opportunities that much better!

Cheers,
Michael

 

[evand]

Sorry, i saw very little whinging. I saw people stating facts.

I think you mean you switched over because the show didn't share your point of view or what you want (not believe) to happen. A narrow minded and common trait of many.

i switched over to grand designs ... i have no time for the whingers who are content to whinge but not spend any time to work out a plan to get out of their own mess.

 

[MichaelW]

Great show. The major take away for me was that the economy is going nowhere but down.

I wish it was that simple. We have a commodities boom to consider into the equation.

Hi Evan,

OK, now I'm confused. And I ask this with all due respect: Are you saying that in your opinion the economy is going nowhere but down or are you saying the commodity boom will hold our economy up nicely?

Sounds like a bit of an each way bet.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[vbplease]

I found one point they touched on interesting.. How big a factor public sentiment is on markets. One man admited to selling his business because he was anticipating a slow down in sales due to the slow down in the economy.. He hadn't even had a slow down in sales yet!!

I also thought it was funny with the latest rate cut of .25% people posting there comments of the next boom ... again public sentiment.

 

[boomtown]

I found one point they touched on interesting.. How big a factor public sentiment is on markets. One man admited to selling his business because he was anticipating a slow down in sales due to the slow down in the economy.. He hadn't even had a slow down in sales yet!!

He is the luxury boat business and can read the writing on the wall. Frankly I think he probably did ok.

As far as the comment about his son being out of work - no business should be run as a family charity. The son can learn to stand on his own 2 feet (or start his own business).

 

[buzzlightyear]

Is the show being re-run or can be it be downloaded at all?

 

[yo yo ma]

Is the show being re-run or can be it be downloaded at all?

Insight is repeated Friday 1:30pm, Monday 3:30pm on SBS. You can also watch online via the link

http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/episode/index/id/42


.

 

[tcocaro]

ill promise to avoid a long post this time. (no gaurantee)

This show was very disappointing. It was simply parading people with problems and somehow linking that to the broader economy but somehow the show was meant to be about property? - it missed to mark by a long shot.

The show seemed to flounder at several points with the presented trying in vain to somehow ties comments with property.

The simple fact is that everything said was individual circumstances and poor ones at that (if your trying to garner the state of property)

For instance the lady with the flower/plastics business? To me this was showing the strength in property. That is, she bought a house for 90k then its worth 900k and she used the equity for a business that failed? - did i miss something here? what was the point of this story aside from "discretionary" oriented businesses are the very first to go in a slow down? - this had NOTHING to do with property.

The man that sold the business on a whim? It was his own insights that made him tell his son to buy property 2 years ago only to tell him to sell it again? - again not sure what this is telling us aside from the extremes that "sentiment" can lead people in making decisions?

The lights lady? - although her comments where very good and grounded they had more to do with the state of the economy than property? I don't think she used the words house, property or anything like that in the whole discussion? (she kept saying personal debt... - hahaha nothing to do with housing just more data for the "plasma index")

Then there was the lady who couldn't find rental. I am sorry ill try to be as "sympathetic" as i can however the reason you cannot get a rental is not because your a single mother of 3 but because you a) unemployed and b) picky. In her statement she said the properties she saw were not nice, well when your unemployed the choices are limited. Again at best this has to do with the economy than rental.

The guy on 100k? ummm I'm sorry but again trying to be as "sympathetic" as possible I would kindly ask, a) how many cars do you own? (i bet 2 and brand new), b) what other major expenses do you have.

The purchase was 400k, the mortgage would have been less and hes on 100k. Sorry but your living standards/expenses are too high mate if your struggle.. i bet you have a plasma though. (seriously 100k+???)

I can go on but ill surmise with a few commenting on what the so called "professionals"

Steven Keen... OMG.. im sorry but this man is egotistical and for lack of a better word an idiot. This is the same man that argues the concept of D&S is dead because of debt levels? sorry but debt levels is a dampener of "Demmand" not a basis for a theory stating D&S doesn't apply anymore (he argued this on lateline). 50% falls did he say?.... This man wants to be the next post post neo classical economic genius.. buddy.. you wont get famous with your constant appearances on TV with your extreme views.

Ross Gittins as with most of the speakers where very "SYDNEY" oriented in their views and opinions. Nothing was said about QLD, MELB, ADELAIDE etc which although slowing have been strong markets for the past 2 years.

THE ONLY PERSON MAKING A VALUED COMMENT was the guy from APM. (although from memory this guy has also said some weird and wacky things on the Domain forum - maybe he says them better in person than in print)

In short his argument is the same that I have been making all along that housing prices are high because regardless of the what land is released if you simply release land out in woop woop with no infrastructure people just don't want it and continue pushing the existing closer to the city properties up.

and unfortunately this guy was basically told to shutup because either they got to him with 5 seconds to go or his comments actually made sense and where not sensationalist enough. (sigh like that guy that said land should be 30k? ummm ok mate please shut up before i cry from your own stupidity and void of reality - even Ross politely said that was fantasy)

I dont understand how much simpler it can get. Would you live in Penrith? etc. HELL!! castle hill dont even have trains and now due to NSW state govt the shitty metro (yes folks a half baked mini train is shitty) is look to die before it could even start.

sigh!!! im sorry but this show sucked.


PS sorry for breaking my promise

 

[Gools]

Had to laugh at the son of the guy that had sold the business saying he would make $60k from the sale of his unit. Then when asked, said it didn't look like it would sell in this market. So where did the $60k figure come from?

The flower wrapper business, I can't believe her sales went from $90k/quarter to $7k/quarter and she had no idea why. Flower sales can't surely be down 1200% so why has she lost market share? That would be the first thing I would be trying to work out, not just waiting to kiss my house goodbye. Surely there must be a new supplier on the market or something. Work it out!!

There is no way I would take children to a discusion like that, I got the feeling the show wanted to provide the suffering family effect.

 

[evand]

Hi Michael,

You're a smart guy and you know there's like an economic tugowar going on. I don't need to explain it.

I think your are just being pedantic. FWIW i think the RBA will be too scared to lower interest rates too much for obvious reasons, regardless of a dead economy.

And its not a two way bet......its called STAGFLATION.

stag·fla·tion (stāg-flā'shən) Pronunciation Key
n. Sluggish economic growth coupled with a high rate of inflation and unemployment.

Hi Evan,

OK, now I'm confused. And I ask this with all due respect: Are you saying that in your opinion the economy is going nowhere but down or are you saying the commodity boom will hold our economy up nicely?

Sounds like a bit of an each way bet.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[lizzie]

I think you mean you switched over because the show didn't share your point of view or what you want (not believe) to happen. A narrow minded and common trait of many.

what tcocaro said ... but perhaps i switched to soon. i am sorry, but i don't have a lot of patience for round and round discussion as i personally would rather be "doing" - and, as mentioned, everyone had a differing opinion which didn't clarify anything. i rather look at the factual info and make up my own mind.

by the way - grand designs was great as usual, but i'd hate to have their end mortgage! the piering and groundwork alone cost 300,000pound. was interesting because they bought a prefab house from germany ... individual design (3 story + basement) but contructed in a factory on the continent and then shipped over and put together ... in 3 days. they also visited the factory and showed how the houses were made. was a good watch.

 

[evand]

I don't know how you (and others) can claim to have an informed, broadminded view of these things when you just dismiss them out of hand as rubbish. Talk about selective filtering of information that fits one's existing world view.

As for Toccaros post. Property is linked to the economy very closely so how can he say the show was too much about the economy and not enough about property? They are like Siamese twins. Anyway, the majority was on property discussion.

Also, the individual statements from the so called "whingers" was a minor part of the show, maybe no more than 20%.

Re his comment about the strength of property with the ladies house bought in 1985 for $90k and now worth $900k. Of course, its not that simple.

For starters $90K for a house in 1985 dollars was not small change.

And as she said on the show, it had been improved/added to substantially so that would account for a lot of the value.

She can also deduct 20 years of interest & principal payments and the $ cost of her improvements. Don't forget to deduct the effect of inflation at 3-4% per year for 20 years compounding.

Doesnt sound so great now. Do you actually understand this stuff mate?

Toccaros post would have to be the most biased i have read for quite a while and so has about zero credibility for me.

but perhaps i switched to soon. i am sorry, but i don't have a lot of patience for round and round discussion as i personally would rather be "doing" - and, as mentioned, everyone had a differing opinion which didn't clarify anything. i rather look at the factual info and make up my own mind.

 

[boomtown]

Omg we watched grand designs as well.

I spent half the time yelling obscenities at that horrible woman. She clearly had no idea what she wanted to achieve and what she did achieve was awful. As the architect said "they didnt come to us with a clear idea, they came with a bunch of ideas that needed a filter applied".

A purple counter with a brass sink and pink highlights nearby? *vomits* The commentator was really struggling to say nice things ("Oh its nice and round so you won't bump against it).

I am convinced that their house would not sell for close to what it cost them to build. The pink feature wall behind the spiral stair with the sparkly tinfoil strands hanging from the ceiling? Erghhh.

 

[boomtown]

Evand

Seriously mate you have such a Sydney centric view its not funny. Every sale in my suburb is a new high (taking into consideration the nature of the property) notwithstanding that it is on very low volume.

You really need to get out more.

 

[evand]

What suburb is that mate?

Evand

Seriously mate you have such a Sydney centric view its not funny. Every sale in my suburb is a new high (taking into consideration the nature of the property) notwithstanding that it is on very low volume.

You really need to get out more.

 

[boomtown]

Brisbane inner ring blue chip. I have no intention of being more specific because my decision to buy there is the result of 2 years of research.