Insight SBS Tues 7.30 Sep 9 - Bursting the Bubble
- Thread starter Alex P Keaton
- Start date
I went back to PDS Live and got the sales volume for 2008 which I inadvertently cut out when copy pasting across - here is the full data:
year 2007 volume 99 average $1,198,918 median $939,000 growth 12.8% low $147,000 high $7,000,000 q1 $788,750 q3 $1,500,000 iqr $711,250
year 2008 volume 23 average $1,555,652 median $1,500,000 growth 59.7% low $655,000 high $3,550,000 q1 $962,500 q3 $1,997,500 iqr $1,035,000
As far as your comments above go - I dont even know what point you are trying to make. The data is what the data is. Furthermore while volume is way down (99 sales in 2007 versus 23 sales in 2008) its not like 23 sales is statistically insignificant.
The data shows that New Farm house prices have gone through the frigging roof whatever your uncle Bob may say. Established capital benchmark as was referred to in another thread. I dont in my wildest dreams think that my suburb is performing as well as New Farm houses right now - but its pretty damn rock solid from talking to REAs and what I can see for sale. I cannot currently get the same value as I got back in May, not within a bulls roar.
So all of you *******s out there that say there are no CGs to be had in Australia for the next 2 years - thats fine - go sit in a cave and think of the "big picture". Other people will figure out theres a bunch of money to be made in little pictures.
I thought it was well below par for Insight. All the "average people" comments were rubbish speculation and dithering. Lots of hard luck stories with deceit at their core.
You tell me how much this has to do with property:
- Turkish guy - has 2 year old Corolla in driveway, and a large people mover of some description. Works 7 days a week, has no time off (aside from the interview day I guess?). Is selling his house at a loss and is "considering moving back to Turkey", because of rate rises which have driven his mortgage up from 2k pcm to 3k pcm.
- Woman selling her house said she didn't get "what we wanted" for it. Daughter seemed to think they knew that would happen and is OK with it.
- A guy who sold his house, and says the recent interest rate cut was "just too late, that's one cut to many rises". Was paying $2,300 a month and living on $500 a month when he took out his mortgage.
- "100k Guy", house is worth less than he paid for it. Wife doesnt work, pays mortgage fortnightly but gets paid monthly - seems to have big enough issue with this to mention it on national television. Says coming off fixed rates hurt and is paying over 9% at the moment.
- Unemployed single mother who was evicted from house with 1 weeks notice, appealed this and got 4 weeks. Commission houses have too long a wait, agent's don't want to know her. Is currently in share housing of some kind.
- A guy who bought a house for $325k in Perth - house was previously on market at $360k. Has borrowed 80% on 60k income, and thinks he can "do it, as long as you're good enough".
that's only the first third of it .. can't be bothered watching the rest of it again to write it down (what happened to transcripts? Their new website sucks).
All those stories have a common thread: not enough slack in cashflow for the bad times. That's it! That's all those stories are. The same pig in a slightly different dress each time (lipstick appears to be optional).
Not a hint of irony in praising the Perth chap for buying well, and at the same time bemoaning the Sydney price falls. A total lack of introspection on the issue at all.
I would have preferred to have Ross Gittens and Saul Eslake do their bear/bull headbutt for an hour. But I'm obviously not the Insight target market.
Cheers.
You tell me how much this has to do with property:
- Turkish guy - has 2 year old Corolla in driveway, and a large people mover of some description. Works 7 days a week, has no time off (aside from the interview day I guess?). Is selling his house at a loss and is "considering moving back to Turkey", because of rate rises which have driven his mortgage up from 2k pcm to 3k pcm.
- Woman selling her house said she didn't get "what we wanted" for it. Daughter seemed to think they knew that would happen and is OK with it.
- A guy who sold his house, and says the recent interest rate cut was "just too late, that's one cut to many rises". Was paying $2,300 a month and living on $500 a month when he took out his mortgage.
- "100k Guy", house is worth less than he paid for it. Wife doesnt work, pays mortgage fortnightly but gets paid monthly - seems to have big enough issue with this to mention it on national television. Says coming off fixed rates hurt and is paying over 9% at the moment.
- Unemployed single mother who was evicted from house with 1 weeks notice, appealed this and got 4 weeks. Commission houses have too long a wait, agent's don't want to know her. Is currently in share housing of some kind.
- A guy who bought a house for $325k in Perth - house was previously on market at $360k. Has borrowed 80% on 60k income, and thinks he can "do it, as long as you're good enough".
that's only the first third of it .. can't be bothered watching the rest of it again to write it down (what happened to transcripts? Their new website sucks).
All those stories have a common thread: not enough slack in cashflow for the bad times. That's it! That's all those stories are. The same pig in a slightly different dress each time (lipstick appears to be optional).
Not a hint of irony in praising the Perth chap for buying well, and at the same time bemoaning the Sydney price falls. A total lack of introspection on the issue at all.
I would have preferred to have Ross Gittens and Saul Eslake do their bear/bull headbutt for an hour. But I'm obviously not the Insight target market.
Cheers.
23 sales is pretty low to be getting statistics from. The $3.55 million sale and a few close it would have thrown that growth % right up on such a low volume.
My point with the rest of my post was that different price ranges react differently and my anecdotal evidence is that the lower ones arent performing real well.
Again, its anecdotal and i'm not on the ground up there so i concede you would have a better view than me.
But, i think that considering the general high price of property there and the low volume the growth isnt as spectacular as it looks on the surface. It rarely is.
No hocus pocus...simple numbers.
My point with the rest of my post was that different price ranges react differently and my anecdotal evidence is that the lower ones arent performing real well.
Again, its anecdotal and i'm not on the ground up there so i concede you would have a better view than me.
But, i think that considering the general high price of property there and the low volume the growth isnt as spectacular as it looks on the surface. It rarely is.
No hocus pocus...simple numbers.
Yes, most people would - and this would be a mistake.
Not all viewpoints are equal. We have all been sold a lie in the way the media works - because journalists no longer have any training in anything other than "presenting all sides", they won't use common sense, judgment or logic to pare down the interviewee list.
Simply "presenting all sides" and "letting the viewer decide" has become the definition of good journalism when it should really be "getting to the truth of the matter".
Under the new world order holocaust deniers must be afforded equal time as holocaust survivors, creationists must be given equal time with scientists, and the financially illiterate must be given equal time with people who have dedicated long and successful careers to understanding financial markets.
BC, who would have known that simple logic, a bit of innovative thinking & a measured response is what is called for here.
i just don't see the point in looking at figures any harder when the story is the same every time - and the exceptions to the story every time.
forest for the tress...
very well written and expressed, i agree entirely.
word of warning, telling things how they are will mean you will get labeled with "heartless b&stard". Even the presenter was to scared to ask anything that may spoil the tone of the show.
The only thing she muttered was to the lady with the florist/plastic store. "but dont you think theres a chance you just go into the wrong business".
anyways ill stop now before i get branded with much worse.
word of warning, telling things how they are will mean you will get labeled with "heartless b&stard". Even the presenter was to scared to ask anything that may spoil the tone of the show.
The only thing she muttered was to the lady with the florist/plastic store. "but dont you think theres a chance you just go into the wrong business".
anyways ill stop now before i get branded with much worse.
Hi Murtagh
Surely it is better to have all sides presented and then the viewer can decide for themselves than have the current pop sensationalist crap that is presented on TT, ACA and others as fact.
Sadly thinking for oneself seems less common than it used to be. Perhaps the analysis and dissection of different streams of conflicting information has gone the way of the times tables at school.
Cheers
Shane
Surely it is better to have all sides presented and then the viewer can decide for themselves than have the current pop sensationalist crap that is presented on TT, ACA and others as fact.
Sadly thinking for oneself seems less common than it used to be. Perhaps the analysis and dissection of different streams of conflicting information has gone the way of the times tables at school.
Cheers
Shane
couldn't have said it better myself.
But again watch out those labels, this comment will get you a nice shiny one with "elitist". Sigh its annoying i know and i agree with your comment theres no point in discussing the same old thing but unfortunately i am to passionate and cannot help but want to reach out and strangle some people sometimes.
But again watch out those labels, this comment will get you a nice shiny one with "elitist". Sigh its annoying i know and i agree with your comment theres no point in discussing the same old thing but unfortunately i am to passionate and cannot help but want to reach out and strangle some people sometimes.
Point taken except medians dont get skewed by extremes.
New Farm really is as good as Brisbane gets. I never understood the appeal of Ascot and still don't. Its crap.
it sounds so noble doesn't it but the problem is namely this... would you get 10 random peoples experience on certain procedures to dictate your decision on which medical procedure to take or that of 10 doctors?
It seems nobody agree with me to not to employ such an idxxxt. It is fortunate that I did not bother to watch the program and see the losers' circus.
It took me three weeks to get back to my mate after I missed his call. I spent much of Sunday evening talking to him as we now live in different cities.
Anyway, he told me he recently bought a house close to a major university and has set it up for student accommodation at 11+% return.
I guess he was too busy making real money to appear on Insight. Either that or the producers would have taken one look at him and thought "he's gonna completely ruin our show!"
He's worth $mils now but there was no silver spoon - just business nouse, commitment and hard work - attributes that seemed to be lacking in the Insight interviewees.
I had to laugh when the $100K man's wife said " before we bought the house we were completely debt free" like it was some badge of honour to be renting without a debt
Anyway, he told me he recently bought a house close to a major university and has set it up for student accommodation at 11+% return.
I guess he was too busy making real money to appear on Insight. Either that or the producers would have taken one look at him and thought "he's gonna completely ruin our show!"
He's worth $mils now but there was no silver spoon - just business nouse, commitment and hard work - attributes that seemed to be lacking in the Insight interviewees.
I had to laugh when the $100K man's wife said " before we bought the house we were completely debt free" like it was some badge of honour to be renting without a debt
Well BlueCard, clearly Adelaide doesn't matter. That's been reiterated many times over the years by all the experts. So I'll thank you not to bring it into this lovely theoretical argument.
Clearly the whole Aust. economy is going to go down the tube, so obviously my small houses sitting on large pieces of dirt 7km from the Adelaide CBD will be going down as well. You only need to watch any informative current affairs program such as the one discussed in this thread to realise this.
Anyone buying a single property in the next few years will obviously lose money on their investment before it starts to rise again - after all, every single property in Australia will be going down won't they?
It was SBS mate.....LOL
WW...if you get any more to the right. Genghis Kahn might have to watch his butt.
.
whoops....I always group sbs and abc together. birds of a feather...maybe Insight focused on western sydney because they think SBS is still primarily watched by ethnic groups from there. Interesting that the hard luck stories were from Middle Easterners and an Asian. The Skippy hard luck stories weren't that hard, really. THat's SBS for you trying to get that PC Big Brother thang just right. Come to think of it, none of the stories were that hard luck.
and as you well know Evan, I have a social conscience larger than most lefites on many things. my issue is with elitist lefties who:
A: don't understand how wealth is generated, nor how the developed world got developed.
B: wouldn't socialize with the proletariat because of the latter's ignorance, coarse nature, and preference for cappucinos rather than a short black...
.... I had several close friends at ABC/SBS years ago of that ilk.Anyway, I need to scull my flat white and get off to work.
Yes i know the type and I label them TLW's. (Trendy Lefty W@nkers) commonly know as Champagne Socialists. And i agree they are an irritating bunch but slightly more bearable than know it all right wing economic rationalists.
I sometimes verge on being a TLW myself but being from a blue collar, working class background with limited tertiary education keeps me grounded and in touch with the proles. Philosophically, if not physically..
By the way, like the Italians i usually only have a cappuccino in the morning (hold the bloody chocolate powder).
I sometimes verge on being a TLW myself but being from a blue collar, working class background with limited tertiary education keeps me grounded and in touch with the proles. Philosophically, if not physically..
By the way, like the Italians i usually only have a cappuccino in the morning (hold the bloody chocolate powder).
B: wouldn't socialize with the proletariat because of the latter's ignorance, coarse nature, and preference for cappucinos rather than a short black...
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Well said! We've had journos on the forum before who are looking for people who have made money in property, and lost money in property. DURING A BOOM! If 99.5% of houses went up in price, then they still have to show the 0.5% that went down to be 'balanced'. But in reality, the 0.5% wouldnt get a look in, and nor should it. Its all made out to appear 50/50 when its not.
Anyway, TV 'journalism' is not about reporting facts any more. Its a business. Newspapers are the same. Just look at the tabloid headlines in some of the supposedly 'respected' papers like The Age, and on their website. At least ACA and TT dont bother to try hiding it any more.
BTW The SBS studios are in Sydney, which is why the only focussed on West Sydney. Can't afford to fly people from interstate!
I didn't say pick 10 random people. I said it was better to have all sides presented. This can be by experts in their own area. Nothing to do with being noble but rather being better informed than just accepting one "expert" viewpoint.
By the way as an example, ask a group of urologists for a suitable protocol for assessing and treating prostate cancer. Then you will see a team that can challenge economists for a variety of opinions on the same data!
Cheers
Shane
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