Ditto, hope it spooks the fhb's too...... every time a similar show like this comes on tv, i feel like it buys me a bit more time.
Insight SBS Tues 7.30 Sep 9 - Bursting the Bubble
- Thread starter Alex P Keaton
- Start date
Ditto, hope it spooks the fhb's too...... every time a similar show like this comes on tv, i feel like it buys me a bit more time.
No way is this guy an idiot.
If you strip the foolish idea that you can place an exact (40%) figure on any price movements as a marketing ploy away from the rest of his work then I find his research worth reading and thinking about it.
what are you on? Your argument has done a complete 180 degree spin and your now argument along the same lines as us?
I totally agree with your statement, the issue i think most of us have is insight, q&a usually are "slightly" better than aca and the other usual crap. This particularly episode i believe was amazingly stupid.
We don't look at TV to make decisions.. but unfortunately 99% do, and worse its the 99% that push the market not us, we just have to be smart enough to ride it.
Yeh.. I didn't think I was alone there. I am loving the negative sentiment at the moment, it's really fantastic.
Falling rates
Rising yields
Years of slumping prices in Sydney
Economy still pretty strong... wait and see on this as always though
China still there... hasn't vanished
Banks lending criteria still pretty generous and improving imo
A lot of negative sentiment
People saying you are crazy to think there will be any growth.
Cmon..... surely there's some chance it's not a bad time to be buying in Western Sydney for one place at the moment!
I'm reminded of the wisdom that says 'When the time comes to buy... you won't want to'....
Could all be wrong of course! OK.. time to go listen to the latest S. Keen podcast.
Its a separate debate. I first said that i thought it was a good program and that i also agreed the economy was going to get worse and that property prices will fall.
I'm now saying that Insight was not meant to be property education and TV overall isn't. Its entertainment.
Two completely different topics.
I'm now saying that Insight was not meant to be property education and TV overall isn't. Its entertainment.
Two completely different topics.
LOL what a tussle between opinions.....
I watched it, listened very carefully to the well respected journo's, the polly's, the REI guys, the Uni students, the Uni professors and got what I had expected, polar opposite points of view.
The only thing they all agreed on is that the economy as a whole is not in great shape and will stay there for the foreseeable future (6-9 months)...after that, its anyone's guess.
My opinion, If anyone thinks they knows what's coming any further then 6-9 months away, they are fooling themselves.
I watched it, listened very carefully to the well respected journo's, the polly's, the REI guys, the Uni students, the Uni professors and got what I had expected, polar opposite points of view.
The only thing they all agreed on is that the economy as a whole is not in great shape and will stay there for the foreseeable future (6-9 months)...after that, its anyone's guess.
My opinion, If anyone thinks they knows what's coming any further then 6-9 months away, they are fooling themselves.
Andrew
I think Western Sydney will actually weather this storm quite well
but I am not so sure of other areas or regions and it's a pitty because the RBA could easily be doing more to reduce the pressure in credit markets
which will make the banks ease rates themselves.
By cutting the official rate the AUD is hurting.
A better move would be for the banks to lower rates by themselves.
Cheers
I think he's an absolute Joker, Joker!
Two words for you demand and supply. No, make that three, plus affordability. If prices come off even 20% then the affordability equation changes markedly and the demand / supply imbalance would result in a lot of buyers entering the market. But don't take my word for it, Gittins et al basically made the same argument. Even the bearish Alan Kohler is now arguing he might have got it wrong and prices could boom from here due to demand/supply imbalances.
Cheers,
Michael
Correct. With such high demand there is a very strong floor in the market. In other words, a small price drop will allow sufficient numbers of new buyers into the market to ensure prices do not drop further.
My reading says that most of the "medium term" future is already carved in stone years before the events come to pass. For example the "sub-prime" debacle was known to anyone who cared to read. 'Twas years ago Buffett warned that "derivatives" were "weapons of mass wealth destruction". The fact is that 99% of investors think they know more'n "the Sage" or are too thick headed to put a little thought into just what a "derivative" is. Anyone with an IQ larger than their shoe size should have been able to predict that the "liar loans" were a disaster just waiting to happen and that the US Fed's rescues are merely ensuring the inevitable bang will be louder than it should have been. Equally, Greenspan's continuous money printing was always going to pump up bubbles.
Why are Aussie bubbles "different"?
There is nothing that has happened in recent years which has surprised me (you are welcome to search years of posts). So why aren't I rich? Fair question. It is the 6-9 months periods that I can't predict so maybe Shady and I should get our heads together.
Intelligent post however the problem is the following. (ill refer to NSW since everyone seems to be fixated on it) NSW has been in the doldrums for ages not just now, any stats will show flat growth for large chunks of NSW for a while now. This isnt a "bubble" if anything its a bubble that has been deflating slowly since 2003.
What has saved Australia is not clever investors or politicians but rather the opposite i.e. its stupid politicians we can thank, for saving us.
Thanks to politicians being too slow to build the necessary infrastructure needed to match the demand in housing, supply has been restrained. This has meant that while the US had an oversupply because every man and his dog (literally - they managed to get a dog a loan in the US) was both building houses and buying them, Australia couldn't ever meet demand so now demand has dissipated and coming closer to supply (still nowhere near though).
In short in the US there was an oversupply which meant speculation had nothing to constrain it except for economic reality (i.e a recession). Once that hit we got what we have now boom/bust.
So for the first time we can thank our politicians for not doing enough as being the perverse reason why australia has not had the same impact.
Regarding the loans thankfully the US "boom" busted before our banks could get anymore "Adventurous" in their loan offerings. Remember when lo-docs started at 60% and ended to 100%?
American loans where A LOT WORSE they had loans which had an extended period of low interest like an extended honeymoon period which exploded to something much higher than the standard variable. Imagine how many "insight" viewers would have taken out loans at 3% interest without a second thought for 3 years down the track - SBS would have had a field day trawling all them out with their "aftermath" stories.
All in all thanks to political inaction and luck Australia was saved. Nothing else.... its not a case or arbitrarily saying "were different".
Only problem now is thanks to the yanks "sentiment" here will be in the doldrums for 6-12 months at least.
What has saved Australia is not clever investors or politicians but rather the opposite i.e. its stupid politicians we can thank, for saving us.
Thanks to politicians being too slow to build the necessary infrastructure needed to match the demand in housing, supply has been restrained. This has meant that while the US had an oversupply because every man and his dog (literally - they managed to get a dog a loan in the US) was both building houses and buying them, Australia couldn't ever meet demand so now demand has dissipated and coming closer to supply (still nowhere near though).
In short in the US there was an oversupply which meant speculation had nothing to constrain it except for economic reality (i.e a recession). Once that hit we got what we have now boom/bust.
So for the first time we can thank our politicians for not doing enough as being the perverse reason why australia has not had the same impact.
Regarding the loans thankfully the US "boom" busted before our banks could get anymore "Adventurous" in their loan offerings. Remember when lo-docs started at 60% and ended to 100%?
American loans where A LOT WORSE they had loans which had an extended period of low interest like an extended honeymoon period which exploded to something much higher than the standard variable. Imagine how many "insight" viewers would have taken out loans at 3% interest without a second thought for 3 years down the track - SBS would have had a field day trawling all them out with their "aftermath" stories.
All in all thanks to political inaction and luck Australia was saved. Nothing else.... its not a case or arbitrarily saying "were different".
Only problem now is thanks to the yanks "sentiment" here will be in the doldrums for 6-12 months at least.
Easy
Just about every academic/Polly/Industry professional said basically the same thing. We're in for more of the same for the short term 6-9 months.
Softening unemployment, another interest rate cut maybe a couple more, Lower consumer sentiment, stagnate housing sector with 'movement' at the margins, higher rental yields.
After that who knows!
a bit off topic
I am listening to 6PR atm - Howard Sattlers talkback, and there is a guy on there talking about how he took out an insurance policy on his life cos he thought that was the only way he could help his family financially after they had been unfairly foreclosed on. Tried to commit suicide.
I am listening to 6PR atm - Howard Sattlers talkback, and there is a guy on there talking about how he took out an insurance policy on his life cos he thought that was the only way he could help his family financially after they had been unfairly foreclosed on. Tried to commit suicide.
Should read the fine print... Most are accidental death only for the first 13 months.
Your argument has lost all credibility after that comment
well strictly speaking boomer, there's around 7mm more foam on top of a latte, or 7mm less milk.
I recall you are Canadian. If you are worried about being perceived as feminine, can I presume you are an ex ice hockey player from the West Coast or Calgary?Mate, your option 2 would be a great scenario and the preferred one. But there's a big difference with what we want to happen and what will. There might even be a 3rd, 4th or 5th option, who knows.
I'm no expert at this stuff, i can only make judgments on my limited knowledge.
Here's an interesting article.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24329032-5001028,00.html
I'm no expert at this stuff, i can only make judgments on my limited knowledge.
Here's an interesting article.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24329032-5001028,00.html
Did I mention Im a bear on IR cuts? I dont think I did...
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