Interest rates predicted to fall below 5%

From www.propertyinsider.com.au:

Good news for anyone with a home loan. Many economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates before the end of the year, in response to falling rates in other global financial markets and a sharp fall in local financial market bonds, which indicate the future direction of home borrowing rates.

There is no doubt the global economy remains weak. The US Federal Reserve looks likely to lower official rates later this month, bringing them below 1% for the first time ever.

In Europe, The European Central Bank has already cut their official interest rate to 2% with indication that more cuts are on the way.

With the falls experienced by local market financial bonds this week, many economists now believe Australia’s official cash rate will be slashed from 4.75% to 4% by the end of the year.

The last time rates reached 4% was during the 1960’s. The lowest rates recorded since that time was 4.25% in December 2001.

For home owners, this would mean variable mortgage interest rates could fall to 5.8% with honeymoon rates falling below 5%, which would mean a saving of more than $85 a month off a 25 year $200,000 home loan.
 
On Business Sunday there were 2 men (I can't remember who, but one of them was an economist from ANZ), who both said that rates would be cut; the first said that most likely rates will be cut 1/4% now, and another 1/4 in August, and the other said just a 1/4 cut in August is likely.

The main concern both of them expressed was fueling an already heated property market.
 
I think that the problem for the RBA at the moment is that they don't know which way to move.

The property market is hot = pressure to increase rates.

The exchange rate is up on what it was 6-12 months ago = pressure to cut interest rates.

The most recent unemployment figures were up = pressure to cut rates (though this is a factor they often ignore).

Ever since McFarlane became Governor (1996) the primary aim of monetary policy has been to curb inflation. In fact the stated aim is a CPI of between 2-3 % over the course of the business cycle.

The march qtr CPI figure showed annual inflation of 3.4% - the highest since the introduction of the GST affected the figures (2000/01 financial year).

The key to the next move on interest rates would seem to be the June qtr CPI figures which will give CPI for the FY 2002/03.

(Treasury has forecast CPI of 3.25%)

Also, the Guv's Quarterly statement on Monetary Policy is due on 11 August - should be interesting.

You'll be pleased to hear that in its latest "Economic Roundup" that the Commonwealth Treasury has indicated that it believes that CPI for FY 2003/04 will be 2.25%.

Watch this space.

MB

FYI - see:

http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/measures_of_cpi.html

and

http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/677/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=economic_outlook.asp
 
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