Calm down Acey, L Bernham does make me think, even if it is mostly "what is wrong with his arguments/logic". As I said I now fear he may be right about massive declines, whilst expecting that he is wrong!
Interest rates to remain steady woo hoo!
- Thread starter Jase
- Start date
Aceyducey said:
I've got to be honest, I switched off after reading this part because I've never claimed to be more experienced than your average property investor. HOw could I be, I've only bought and sold one property in my life.
That said, I have done serious, in-depth studies on speculative bubbles and consider that I know when we are in one and all I can suggest at the moment is for people not to bother searching too hard for a bargain in this climate, while they exist they are very few and far between and finding what you think may be a bargain may well have a reason for its bargain price.
If you want to get a good price, hold off, save more money, learn more about property investing, resist the temptation to jump in and buy because everyone else seems to be doing or have done it and you will see in a couple of years there will be legitimate bargains.
LB
As I thought, he avoided the main question.L Bernham said:I've got to be honest, I switched off after reading this part because I've never claimed to be more experienced than your average property investor. HOw could I be, I've only bought and sold one property in my life.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Aceyducey said:
He? You mean she..or is that doctor?
BTW I think a lot of people are losing sight of the bigger picture.
That is that just about everyone in Property in Oz have made some awesome capital gains in the last few years. Yes the most successful markets may be going a wee bit backwards temporarily whilst others slow down or hover at zero growth. But we all know that won't be forever or probably even for that long if the UK experience is anything to go by.
If investors are overly negative then you can hardly expect the mass market to stay positive during this normal & highly expected part of the cycle.
I think we should all be doing our best, in the interests of the industry to put the most optimistic face on things, say yes we knew it would happen sooner or later and that we are glad that this time around the Oz economies fundamentals (inflation, unemployment, business growth, the balance of trade, interest rates etc) are so much stronger & will make the correction that much shallower & faster to get over & done.
In my mind its a lot like Paul Keatings 'Banana Republic' statement that sent the stock market into a spiral. Imagine if instead he had said "the economy is understandably waning at present but we are confident of recovering at a faster rate than most other nations" or words to that effect how much better the stock market would have reacted.
A lot of what happens in this world is reflected in the media & what spin they put on things. And unfortunately or fortunately (depending on how you play the game) the public believes a lot of what they read in the media.
As a sector we should be lobbying our contacts (banks, media, real estate spokespersons etc) to be as confident as possible so that our industry has the best chance to recover quickly & minimize damage. Our discussions with taxi drivers, retail staff & the GP should also reflect the positives. Ultimately speaking its in our interests, the industry & banks interests & also that of the general population.
My point in starting this thread was to point out that all the talk of possible imminent rising interst rates seems to be fading fast which is good for those of us who are not wanting to fix as well as the GP wnating to get into the market & make a start on their property portfolio.
FFS try putting yourself in the position of thrid world citizens... Damn my approx $500 000 capital gain just shrank to approx $440 000 hardly sounds rough compared to I wish I had enough food to eat does it! Things could be a hell of a lot worse. And we all know from the lessons of history that in the long term the only way is up.
Happy mothers day.
Jase.
geoffw said:
You can bet Costello will be applying all possible pressure on the RBA to keep things steady in the lead up to the election which by my reckoning won't be till at least Sept/October. And if the April -June quarter sales prices remains flat I would think they'd be able to keep rises on hold. America's rates haven't gone skyward yet and wouldn't they be the major influence?
Jase
A small comment on this 10% figure from the Residex pertaining to RBA announcements & their reporting:L Bernham said:
SOURCE: Residex email 'Where is the Property Market Heading?' 11/05/04
SO watch those figures that get bandied about. Their basis may be media spin, not fact....
It's best to judge based on your own research of the market conducted by looking at actual prices, not media commentary.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
XBenX said:
Sorry to disappoint you Ben , but it still is...
Mind you we must be immune to it . Our properties have gone up quite nicely over the last six months. Just as well I didn't listen to all the Chicken Littles of this world.
Then again I didn't buy Units in Melbourne... but while I can still find good buys in other markets I will buy.
See Change
XBenX said:
Ben , The Knack will be to anticipate and step aside when the sky does fall in.
I've found the markets are remarkable resiliant to bad news , and the property market has a lot of momentum. It takes a lot to slow it down , and I think it takes even more to get it to change direction.
The underlying reason that have created the increase interest in wealth creation havn't gone away. As people realise thatplaces like Sydney / Melb have stopped, somewill walk away , but many others will look for other places to invest in Property . The Share market is still seen as risky by many.
Untill we have high interest rates and / or high unemployment I think that any down turn in Sydney / Melb will be mild , and there are still plenty of people who are still looking for places to invest.
See Change
XBenX
Could we just confirm something for my interests.
When there is talk of the sky falling in, is that the whole sky, or just the sky above units in Sydney and Melbourne.
If I was living in the country, under the roof of a nice house, would I be safe, or is it the entire Australian sky that that I have to be worried about. ?
I just ran outside and looked up to find that everything seems to be OK above our PPOR, and I hope for my Son-in-laws sake, that its OK where he works, because as a bricklayer, he has just stopped quoting for jobs because he has too much work and can't take on any more. Sounds really depressing doesn't it.
Jahn
Could we just confirm something for my interests.
When there is talk of the sky falling in, is that the whole sky, or just the sky above units in Sydney and Melbourne.
If I was living in the country, under the roof of a nice house, would I be safe, or is it the entire Australian sky that that I have to be worried about. ?
I just ran outside and looked up to find that everything seems to be OK above our PPOR, and I hope for my Son-in-laws sake, that its OK where he works, because as a bricklayer, he has just stopped quoting for jobs because he has too much work and can't take on any more. Sounds really depressing doesn't it.
Jahn
Jamie,
I see the L Bernhams all the time at work.
They're the people who are waiting for you to fall over- the ones who laugh at you for getting into a get rich scheme.
And, after several years, when you are doing OK- they make dire predictions of how things will fall so much that you will lose everything and then some.
I know, I used to do the same. To those people who were foolish enogh to buy Canberra property in the early 90s.
Those foolish people (well, at least the ones who didn't get discouraged by people like me) are doing far better than me on some of those properties now.
I see the L Bernhams all the time at work.
They're the people who are waiting for you to fall over- the ones who laugh at you for getting into a get rich scheme.
And, after several years, when you are doing OK- they make dire predictions of how things will fall so much that you will lose everything and then some.
I know, I used to do the same. To those people who were foolish enogh to buy Canberra property in the early 90s.
Those foolish people (well, at least the ones who didn't get discouraged by people like me) are doing far better than me on some of those properties now.
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