Great thread HiredGoon! My gun is loaded and finger is on the trigger. I believe the market in general has softened and over the next year or so, there will be some great buying. I know it's almost impossible to do, but I'm doing my best to "time the market" as I reckon we're pretty close to the end of a cycle, so my next purchase will be in the next 3-9 months as I'm cashed up and ready to go. Those who are "maxed out" on the other hand will feel the pain and will be forced to sell, enabling those who have cash to buy well.
Investor psychology - please post your state of mind
- Thread starter HiredGoon
- Start date
I think you were raised in Sydney! I have a problem with too much greed. Capitalism channels self interest into the greater good but this mechanism has it's limits - if everybody acted with pure greed and self interest the system would break down.
I have lots of empathy and would very quickly help people. But at the same time I would have no problem buying a place cheap from a strugling mortgage battler. My rationale is it was their decision that put them in that place and if I didn't buy the house at that point then somebody else would. I would feel for the kids though in that situation - they can't choose their parents.
How arrogant are you? Do you think that every struggling mortgage battler loses a house because they are stupid? Did you ever think that 7 interest rate rises might be the problem? Or groceries going up in Australia more than any other developed country with the average basket of goods up $40 a week. In our younger days, if we had these rate rises, we may well have lost our house too. It doesn't make these people stupid. It could well mean they "had a go" at putting a roof over their family, instead of whining about it, and got caught up in problems outside their control.
If the cheaper parts of Sydney are suffering mortgage stress, where else would these people have bought. What was cheaper than "cheap"?
Whilst I know some people have only themselves to blame, you cannot just lump everybody in together.
I also get offended by the GHPC thoughts that we are all greedy blood-sucking vultures waiting for everybody's pain so we can jump in and buy, buy, buy. We are not all like that either, so don't be so superior over on that site either.
Don't be so arrogant.
Based on Alexlee's (a moderator no less) admission he has no sympathy for those struggling with rate rises, and looks forward to the buying opportunities that come with such, I think GHPC are justified in having a go at the culture of Somersoft.
I don't represent all the views on Somersoft, and I don't think investment by itself has a moral or immoral element. I just happen to be way I am. Most investors on somersoft are nicer than I am. As a Mod I help monitor posts according to the rules of the forum: I certainly don't impose my views. If I did, I would be deleting every post I didn't agree with. But what's the point of only reading things that agree with your own view? Through arguing with YM, I've refined my own ideas about property, and in fact am more sure about its long term prospects than I was before.
To be honest, as investors we get a lot of criticism, whether justified or not. Going into this phase of the cycle, plenty of people are going to worry about our debts or have a secret chuckle. These people may well be our friends, colleages, loved ones, people we respect, not to mention the media. I mean, how many times have we been told by friends and loved ones that we're taking on too much debt, we don't 'need' so many houses, we should work harder instead and not think about money all the time? As the property market softens we're just going to get more of that.
If we can't handle a few criticisms from anonymous people on the internet, we're never going to survive the criticism we get from people we actually care about. I've never argued against charges of greed and lack of empathy from anyone, because in my case they're justified. I don't care about people I don't know. Though blaming it on Sydney culture is a bit harsh. I learned capitalism from a much purer source.
Alex
At least I'm honest about it. I think a lot of people think like that most of the time but aren't willing to admit it. Or they don't WANT to think like that, but they do, and feel guilty about it. I don't really have a sense of guilt: if I do something that I'll feel guilty about, I wouldn't do it in the first place. That comes from analysing what I do and knowing how I'll react to it.
Alex
GHPC are lumping us all in together. I respect Alexlee's knowledge, but I don't agree with his way of looking at the possibilities that will present themselves if we have a big correction and people have to sell houses etc. At least he is honest, but it doesn't mean we are all the same.
I am much more emotional than that, and cannot remove my feelings of regret and sorrow for anybody forced to do something they don't wish to do. Getting a cheap house because somebody is forced to make a loss doesn't interest me at all. In fact, I probably would not be interested in such a house, even at a fire sale price. I could not take any joy in such a purchase.
I have never bought a house which was for sale with a distressed vendor, and I don't think I ever would knowingly do so. But I will probably never be as wealthy as I could be either. I don't have the "killer instinct" in me to take any joy from somebody else's misfortune.
Perhaps we are also lumping all the GHPC folk in to the same basket, and doing some of them a disservice as well?
It just stocks and amazes me the hatred on that forum by some of the posters.
i'm with wylie and alexlee ... perhaps halfway between.
i definately do not rub my hands in glee or wish for higher interest rates to force some overstretched borrowers into the red. i would love to see interest rates come back down.
but - if an opportunity comes along for me to buy (and yes, i do look for them) at a great price, i will buy. i don't see the point in being a martyr just so the next investor along can grab the deal instead.
for me, property investing is a business - although i feel sorry for someone's misfortune, i did not get them in that situation, i will be flexible to help them towards getting themselves out (quick/extended settlement, staying on as renters etc) - but i will not forgo the chance to make my own family wealthier thru emotional regret for theirs.
as to the question ... i'm hoping to start buying again within 6 months, regardless of what the interest rates are doing.
i definately do not rub my hands in glee or wish for higher interest rates to force some overstretched borrowers into the red. i would love to see interest rates come back down.
but - if an opportunity comes along for me to buy (and yes, i do look for them) at a great price, i will buy. i don't see the point in being a martyr just so the next investor along can grab the deal instead.
for me, property investing is a business - although i feel sorry for someone's misfortune, i did not get them in that situation, i will be flexible to help them towards getting themselves out (quick/extended settlement, staying on as renters etc) - but i will not forgo the chance to make my own family wealthier thru emotional regret for theirs.
as to the question ... i'm hoping to start buying again within 6 months, regardless of what the interest rates are doing.
HG,
How useful will the thoughts posted here be to your future investment objectives? Are you planning to purchase property in the future?
I like the look of your share portfolio at this point in time. Are you willing to give a break down of the specific stocks that you have in the portfolio?
Hey Goony, this reminds me of the 'predictions' thread:
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I think they should have rented - it is way cheaper than "cheap". You can't blame this on interest rates or petrol etc. People overstretched themselves all across the mortgage belt which put them into a situation where these other price rises put them at risk.
I know a guy who has a family of 4 (2 kids), one modest income, has plenty of savings and pays his credit card in full every month. This is because he knew his limits and decided to stay out of a housing market that was way overpriced - he chose to rent instead. He is coping with fuel and other price rises with no problem.
This is why I would be so furious if governments intervened to help mortgage holders. It would effectively be taking money from the responsible guy I mentioned before and giving it to the irresponsible guy who took on too much debt. This is the debate going on in the USA today.
And I think you are presuming you know why people default on their loans. What would you know about each person's individual situation?
I still think you are being arrogant and superior. Plenty of people go to the wall for other reasons than "stupidity". What about losing a job, unexpected pregnancy leading to loss of one income, increased living expenses, just to name a few.
I don't like that idea either. Let's just count on the government to do the responsible and not popular thing then eh?
I also don't like the idea that wage earners and savers are forced into welfare in older age via the inflation tax while carrying a disproportionate burden of taxation while they work.
What chance the RBA won't go into the bailing business if the opportunity arises like the fed and the ECB, BOE? Not much I think.
HiredGoon, I'm a believer in the commodities super cycle. I'm basically fully invested into agricultural land and resource shares.
I don't really know if the commodities super cycle will continue, just hope it does. I do think there has been some fundamental shifts in things, especially agriculture and oil, so I do think 'this time it's different'.
My agricultural land is unlikely to ever lose much value, and it will most likely continue to increase in value and earnings like it always has. After this bumper year, I also will have no debt.
If my resource shares plummit because of the resource boom being over, then residential housing will also plummit as this country will be a banana republic without resource and energy exports.
It would be a case of who loses least wins.
I have very little debt now, and I own unencombered agricultural land, so I would be a good chance of being on the winners team.
I'm fairly confident our economy will continue to do better than anywhere else in the world due to our good luck. We are all lucky to have been born or now reside in Australia with our given wealth. If not, so be it, but you would still be better off here than else where
See ya's.
Unlike others here, I hope you keep posting.
This place would be dangerous if every single person was a full time property bull.
Gee, your have it in for Woodside, TheAnalyst.
Oil is still too cheap considering what you can do with it. Way too cheap. It is way too cheap because we are still wasting the stuff.
Oil needs to be expensive so we will stop wasting oil, and so that companies like Woodside can continue to find more of the stuff.
Without oil, the earths human carrying capacity would be less than 2 billion humans. You want to hope that oil companies continue to find the black gold.
And yes, I am a part owner of Woodside mate, so I'm a bit biased. I think I own .00015% of woodside, but I could have a few zero's wrong.
See ya's.
hi topcropper
I think that today you are correct but not sure about tomorrow.
we do live in the what is called the luck country but the trouble with that is that when you win even in a casino you always must look over your shoulder to make sure you are not followed or for that matter make sure that your are not conned into a sense of false security.
for me I think that we have been conned into that false security.
people think that it is fine to dig out ore and oil and as long as real estate keeps going up all is fine in the rose garden.
the trouble that we are in is that all the players around us are well out performing us.
china is on a rush to the line taking in any oil concrete and steel it can get its hand on and now trying to get any coal that is around.
vietnam is sucking in as much finance as possible trying to be the next singapore, or geneva,
india is not a roll like there is no tomorrow and if you walk around most of our cities you will loots of indian students in the same white shirt black jumpers of the 70's business dress and they are not here to sell jipartee they are here to learn business.
you have thailand that is redesigned there islands for casino's and hotels and vast infrastructure.
have we missed the boat
well we don't even know where the harbour is never mind the boat.
we have vast amount of money in australia comming from all over the world from china,india,vietnam and even holland.
and they are here for one thing and one thing only and that to buy.
and the are not buying holden cars fords or buying credit cards.
and if they do as I think they will not buy the item. but fund and take control then we will have a very big problem.
can we stop it
simply no
they system allows it.
so to day we are the lucky country but tomorrow we could be singing to a very different tune and I think we wil be.
and the saying 'sheel be right mate'
well may change to
'we were wrong mate'
thats why I think we are in for some very interesting times.
I think that today you are correct but not sure about tomorrow.
we do live in the what is called the luck country but the trouble with that is that when you win even in a casino you always must look over your shoulder to make sure you are not followed or for that matter make sure that your are not conned into a sense of false security.
for me I think that we have been conned into that false security.
people think that it is fine to dig out ore and oil and as long as real estate keeps going up all is fine in the rose garden.
the trouble that we are in is that all the players around us are well out performing us.
china is on a rush to the line taking in any oil concrete and steel it can get its hand on and now trying to get any coal that is around.
vietnam is sucking in as much finance as possible trying to be the next singapore, or geneva,
india is not a roll like there is no tomorrow and if you walk around most of our cities you will loots of indian students in the same white shirt black jumpers of the 70's business dress and they are not here to sell jipartee they are here to learn business.
you have thailand that is redesigned there islands for casino's and hotels and vast infrastructure.
have we missed the boat
well we don't even know where the harbour is never mind the boat.
we have vast amount of money in australia comming from all over the world from china,india,vietnam and even holland.
and they are here for one thing and one thing only and that to buy.
and the are not buying holden cars fords or buying credit cards.
and if they do as I think they will not buy the item. but fund and take control then we will have a very big problem.
can we stop it
simply no
they system allows it.
so to day we are the lucky country but tomorrow we could be singing to a very different tune and I think we wil be.
and the saying 'sheel be right mate'
well may change to
'we were wrong mate'
thats why I think we are in for some very interesting times.
Howdy Grossreal.
There was an article in the 'perspective' section of the weekend AFR titled, 'The Curse of Plenty'. Probably refers to your points. Did you read it?
Basically tells how some countries have made use of their good luck, and others squadered it.
See ya's.
There was an article in the 'perspective' section of the weekend AFR titled, 'The Curse of Plenty'. Probably refers to your points. Did you read it?
Basically tells how some countries have made use of their good luck, and others squadered it.
See ya's.
We were wrong mate could be the catch cry Gross ? Sounds catchy...
I'm a big fan of TC's and think i might just hang on to my farm for the time being . The outlook is so good at the moment . Great prices .
Perhaps if countrys like China can not buy enough food in the future they may look to take less peaceful means of aquiring it ? What do you think ??
I'm a big fan of TC's and think i might just hang on to my farm for the time being . The outlook is so good at the moment . Great prices .
Perhaps if countrys like China can not buy enough food in the future they may look to take less peaceful means of aquiring it ? What do you think ??
Yeah, or they might just jack up the price of roundup by 200% and put on massive fertilizer tarrifs eh. Like they just have.
See ya's.
