Lots of Property investors like to see that happen so they can sell.
Yes they do. Roots in the ground, tree grows up into the sky. At least thats the way all the trees I can see are growing.
Iron Ore in free fall - Perth property next!
- Thread starter grubar30
- Start date
Lots of Property investors like to see that happen so they can sell.
Yes they do. Roots in the ground, tree grows up into the sky. At least thats the way all the trees I can see are growing.
this is not the 80s dude.
so what if it took decades?
have you seen this graph?
think 2001 - "take-off".
think 2011 - "bear trap", considering we have no media attention, no mania, no enthusiasm.
now take your calcs from $1560 @ "bear trap" and work forwards.
Ah this time it is different. I think I have heard that before.
As John Maynard Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead.
I am a klutz with computers. Hit us with some inflation adjusted graphs for gold, natural gas and iron ore going back 40 years and you will clearly see how overpriced these commodities are. No they won't crash soon. But cheap they aint.
if the argument is only that they are not cheap, then yes, i agree.
but cheap compared to what? our devalued currency?
the price of commodities is not going up, our purchasing power with FIAT is being reduced giving the impression of a rising price.
Look who is bullish now.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business...oss-ken-brinsden/story-fn7kjv7y-1226596494654
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business...oss-ken-brinsden/story-fn7kjv7y-1226596494654
At a function last week where a senior NAB economist spoke and he mentioned iron ore had dropped but was still well outside any point of concern. Appartently the mines breakeven point is $80/tonne to deliver it to China.
It appears this price point isn't going to close anything down yet.
It appears this price point isn't going to close anything down yet.
Garbage...
I think most here would agree that I am no property perma bull, but I think there is room for considerable price growth over the next 12-24 months (Perth). The fundamentals were in Perth's favour when I wrote this 8 months ago:
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2012/08/perth-property-on-cusp-of-price-growth.html
And are decidedly better now (some measurements).
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-20% push higher in prices over the short term, but over the medium/long term they could certainly be affected by lower commodity prices and/or reduction in mining capex/investment.
Last week Market Vane Gold bullish consensus reached lows not seen since 2001, even lower than during the 2008 crash. Other sentiment & oversold technical readings show similar. There is article after article in the MSM about the end of the bull market in Gold. Who is bullish on Gold, besides a few forum nutters?
Aaron was talking about Gold. Unless you were confirming that Gold is in a bear trap?
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i think shadows post could account for any expensive commodity, land, gold, ore.....
I thinks its more like $45 or $50 for the big boys aka BHP/RIO. The bank funded FMG is more like $90 though.
...and if you're Atlas Iron, your break even is about $6.85/t....! lol
china to the rescue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/marketnews/view/1259300/1/.html
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/marketnews/view/1259300/1/.html
Pretty close...
wow that graph is almost a mirror to the Australian Property Market. looks like we are in the "return to normal" phase. Considering our bubble hasn't really "popped", just deflated a little and we have had some modest improvements recently....
the only thing wrong with the graph above is the scale on the x axis. its definitely not in the "bear trap" phase...
Any chance you could share your reasoning on this? Thanks.
Well my reasoning is as follows, assuming of course this graph is an accurate representation of what happens in the property market....
In my view 2007/2008 would be the height of our property market, the "new paradigm". Leading up to that period it would be safe to assume we were in the "mania" phase. Every other TV show was property related, people were flipping properties for huge profit with just a simple paint job and a backyard blitz. The strategy being just to borrow as much money as you possible can, buy anything and you'll make a profit.
Then the GFC hits and our market pulls back, we didn't crash because "we were different", but properties did come off a bit.
we are in a recover phase now in a post GFC world were people expectations have changed, we have a "returned to a new normal".
So by my interpretation of the graph we are sitting at the edge of the cliff...
Now I'm not all Doom and gloom, I'd argue that the "return to mean line" that dotted line should be steeper, so as such, if a "crash" was to occur it won't be as steep as that graph implies.
I'd almost guarantee that if you could find an up to date graph of Australian house prices it would look exactly like the graph above, but would be stopped at the "return to normal" phase
you could very well be correct.
you could also have sold yourself short - the "return to normal" phase could have been Melbourne's mini-boom.
remember, the more money in the system and the faster that money travels, the quicker these cycles will occur.
and with the US Fed printing $85b a month.....
you could also have sold yourself short - the "return to normal" phase could have been Melbourne's mini-boom.
remember, the more money in the system and the faster that money travels, the quicker these cycles will occur.
and with the US Fed printing $85b a month.....
