Is A Recession On Its Way??
- Thread starter nu2ips
- Start date
I don't think most people commenting on markets (including RE) are trustworthy. They are perma-bulls who see everything as a buy signal. If markets are on the up, get on for the ride and if they are down you'll never buy them this cheap again.
Then we have the Bear Market Press which includes the Gold Bugs who see doom and gloom all around. If you want to read some from that camp (and you should) go to Kitco.com and read their articles and follow their links. According to these Ladies and Gents a recession is the best you can hope for. LOL
Tonights action in NY suggests that the sub-prime fiasco is far from over, in spite of it having been declared dead every second day. The headlines on http://money.cnn.com/index.html are The housing gloom grows. The ASX will be down 100 points again today.
Then we have the Bear Market Press which includes the Gold Bugs who see doom and gloom all around. If you want to read some from that camp (and you should) go to Kitco.com and read their articles and follow their links. According to these Ladies and Gents a recession is the best you can hope for. LOL
Tonights action in NY suggests that the sub-prime fiasco is far from over, in spite of it having been declared dead every second day. The headlines on http://money.cnn.com/index.html are The housing gloom grows. The ASX will be down 100 points again today.
This is a good (albeit) short thread from 2003 on the 1990's recession.
Yeah, alot of people say that we're overdue for a recession, and they use the example of the recessions in 1974/75, 1982/83 and 1990/91 as an example of the regularity of recessions in recent times - "look", they'll say, "it's a 9 year cycle, blah blah blah..."
Funny how they ignore the 30 years of economic prosperity that proceeded the mid-70's recession.
At some point in the future - I don't know when - it might be next week, it might be next century, the world economies will take a turn for the worst, so yes, each day is one closer to, as you put it, an "economic losing streak", but if we all thought like that we'd be out buying plots in graveyards.
I agree with SF that the effects of the sub-prime kaos in the US are far from over (probably take months to come out in the wash) and I am personally nervous about the prospect of an ALP Government in Australia (whatever the odds of a downturn are, imho they double under labor).
But before you get too wound up in doom and gloom, have a look at the debate here about the nature of property markets and local / national factors (there's only 18 posts, so not too many to read).
As you can see from that last link, I'm someone who believes that what matters more in residential property are localised factors, though some argue in favour of the national approach. In the thread you can see the example given by MC of Canberra during the mid-70's. If you want a more modern example, consider Sydney and Perth in recent years. Sydney was on the verge of recession a couple of years back, while Perth's economy was booming. And their property markets reflected that.
M
Yeah, alot of people say that we're overdue for a recession, and they use the example of the recessions in 1974/75, 1982/83 and 1990/91 as an example of the regularity of recessions in recent times - "look", they'll say, "it's a 9 year cycle, blah blah blah..."
Funny how they ignore the 30 years of economic prosperity that proceeded the mid-70's recession.
At some point in the future - I don't know when - it might be next week, it might be next century, the world economies will take a turn for the worst, so yes, each day is one closer to, as you put it, an "economic losing streak", but if we all thought like that we'd be out buying plots in graveyards.
I agree with SF that the effects of the sub-prime kaos in the US are far from over (probably take months to come out in the wash) and I am personally nervous about the prospect of an ALP Government in Australia (whatever the odds of a downturn are, imho they double under labor).
But before you get too wound up in doom and gloom, have a look at the debate here about the nature of property markets and local / national factors (there's only 18 posts, so not too many to read).
As you can see from that last link, I'm someone who believes that what matters more in residential property are localised factors, though some argue in favour of the national approach. In the thread you can see the example given by MC of Canberra during the mid-70's. If you want a more modern example, consider Sydney and Perth in recent years. Sydney was on the verge of recession a couple of years back, while Perth's economy was booming. And their property markets reflected that.
M
