Is anyone worried by the dropping lending rates?

[Jonril]

What if they buy the exploration rights and mineral rights? The land is taken away!.

That's exactly what Chinese company Shenhua has done in my area. They have bought the exploration rights and mineral rights for about 6 times what the land is worth. [irrigated farm land is worth $10,000 per hectare, dryland farmland is worth $6,000 per hectare, grazing land is worth $3,000 per hectare]. They have bought out the farmers for 2 to 3 times what the land is worth, and they dig it up and export the coal to China.

Around here the coal is the best quality coking coal worth $200 per tonne. [About to go up to $300 per tonne]. Minimum seams of 2 meters depth, but up to 15 metres. Lets use the minumum of 2 metres depth? There is 10,000 square metres in a hectare. Times 2 metres. Equals 20,000 square metres. At 1500 kg per c/m that's 30,000 tonnes per hectare.

30,000 times $200 equals $6 million per hectare.



We really are the stupid country, born dumb, but just born lucky. Why wouldn't Australia just keep this as an asset? It doesn't have to be dug up now, and if left as is would produce food for ever more.

The broke state and federal governments needs cash now and can only see 12 months ahead!.


See ya's.

I agree with your point that it may not be a great idea to dig up productive farming land for quick profits now.

I don't think it is a clear cut that the Chinese are making off like thieves thou. It takes a lot of investment and expenditure to go from owning land and mineral rights to digging it up and getting it shipped to china. Why do the heavy lifting when you can tax the process all the way through instead?

Also if not the Chinese and other cashed up foreign investors who will put in the capital and expenditure needed to get the coal to market?

A better question is how much net profit is available per hectare from digging up Australia and sending it to China?

And also should profit and tax revenue be the only consideration when these type of deals are approved/made?

 

[HandyAndy888]

I
If interest rate rises do not reduce the growth in property prices, most 1st home buyers will be priced out of property.

I am starting to get a bit sick of this sort of statement. Young people/1st buyers will be priced out of CBDs....NOT PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET!

 

[Piston Broke]

TThey have bought out the farmers for 2 to 3 times what the land is worth, and they dig it up and export the coal to China.

So why did'nt local companies do the same if it's so profitable?

I don't think it is a clear cut that the Chinese are making off like thieves thou.

I reckon we are the ones "making off like thieves" as we been paying millions of those suckers a bowl of rice and a couple bux a day to work like slaves to make stuff for us.
Notice how all that stuff is so cheap these days.

The issue is not who bought it, but why?

 

[coastymike]

Common sense prevails

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/pr...les-on-home-buys/story-e6frezt0-1225857633800

 

[HandyAndy888]

Common sense prevails

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/pr...les-on-home-buys/story-e6frezt0-1225857633800

Ha ha, I wonder if the Government is checking out our forum!!!

 

[House_Keeper]

Common sense prevails

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/pr...les-on-home-buys/story-e6frezt0-1225857633800

Interesting stuff. That makes sense.

The rules were relaxed in 2008 in an attempt to prop up property prices. That and the FHOG worked far too well to create a property price boom.

It looks like Melbourne will be the most affected by this.

Still it doesn't change the fundamentals of our current property market. High immigration and low levels of construction means a housing shortage, which will keep driving prices up.

The rule change and increasing interest rates probably a more gentle growth though, somewhere between 5 and 10% per year would be my guess for inner Sydney.

Cheers,

 

[random]

Yeah it's all very bloody confusing .

The one thing that does stick in my mind though is the lending rates . I've heard too many times now they're down for the 4 and 5th mth running.

Then surely that's the real reality of things . As far as who is really buying then and where they're getting their money from , it's got me !

Cheers

 

[SYDB]

Yeah it's all very bloody confusing .

The one thing that does stick in my mind though is the lending rates . I've heard too many times now they're down for the 4 and 5th mth running.

Then surely that's the real reality of things . As far as who is really buying then and where they're getting their money from , it's got me !

Cheers

Well, the govt has been listening to reason and have now tightened the FIRB rules for foreign investors. I imagine there will be some lag effect, however, this will likely slow foreign investment - and the lending figures indicate a reticence in local buyers at inflated prices.

I'm sure the mantra here though is "move on, nothing to see here - prices always rise"........by the time rates have risen an extra 1% by years end and the FIRB rules are entrenched, I suspect the market will look markedly different to what it does now. Easter will show to have been the tipping point. Average people simply can't afford the current level of prices. Paper wealth will be destroyed, as it has been previously, and will be in future - this is the tail end of a fiscal induced upswing - the lending figures, retail sales, commercial property - it's all pretty ugly out there in the real world which finances all these purchases. Now is the final chance to liquidate and keep your gains, of that, I am confident.

Peace

SYDB

 

[Ausprop]

Well, the govt has been listening to reason and have now tightened the FIRB rules for foreign investors.

not sure about 'reason' but they are there to win votes and the populist junk food of the day was this one, so off it goes. no one will ever see a difference but ol' Ruddy... he did his bit for working families by keeping out those pesky foreigners. plus he gave us that 1000 bucks remember? yeh i'm voting for that guy.

 

[SYDB]

not sure about 'reason'

I take it you think it's reasonable for foreigners to buy Australian residential property, potentially pricing young Australians out of the market?

This is housing, a roof over people's heads, not exchange traded options.....

 

[andrew_de_a]

Sydb can you stop whinging like a little baby and just buy something.

 

[SYDB]

Sydb can you stop whinging like a little baby and just buy something.

Hi Andrew,

When a poster stops arguing the topic, and instead resorts to insult, it is pretty clear they are struggling to come up with a reasonable argument.

I am not whinging, I am simply putting forward another perspective. It is interesting that you find this so threatening.

Good luck with your investments

SYDB

 

[andrew_de_a]

It has been pretty clear from all your posts that it is a major case of sour grapes on your part.

Do you believe you are entitled to own a property?

 

[SYDB]

It has been pretty clear from all your posts that it is a major case of sour grapes on your part.

Do you believe you are entitled to own a property?

In response to your questions and assertions:

1. Property ownership is of course not a right, property is a private good and so it should be. I am no more or less entitled to property ownership than any other Australian resident who requires a roof over their families head.

But public policy that makes home ownership for young Australians more difficult to achieve certainly must be questioned and analysed. Every Australian, whilst not entitled to own a home, is entitled to a fair go from their elected representatives Andrew. Or do you disagree with this? I'd love to hear your point of view, mate.

2. No sour grapes, just a different point of view, which you appear to be very, very threatened by. I don't blame you for this, high levels of leverage and worries about an impending crash would have me nervous too, mate.

Once again though, you have attacked me rather than addressing my points. I'm more than happy to argue the issues with you Andrew, but you don't seem to want to do that.

Maybe that's because my arguments are relatively strong?

Or maybe, I'm just bad for business.

All the best to you.

SYDB

 

[andrew_de_a]

But public policy that makes home ownership for young Australians more difficult to achieve certainly must be questioned and analysed. Every Australian, whilst not entitled to own a home, is entitled to a fair go from their elected representatives Andrew. Or do you disagree with this? I'd love to hear your point of view, mate.

I'm 26 and have purchased 4 properties within 10km's of Melb CBD over the last 5 years, I certainly havent found home ownership difficult to achieve at all.

Are your expectations set a little high maybe? What have you found difficult?

 

[SYDB]

I'm 26 and have purchased 4 properties within 10km's of Melb CBD over the last 5 years, I certainly havent found home ownership difficult to achieve at all.

Are your expectations set a little high maybe? What have you found difficult?

Andrew, I can easily purchase. I am a FHB, have a deposit saved, and am approved for purchase price above the average home price. I simply see property well above intrinsic value at the moment and I believe this will change by years end.

If I'm wrong, I lose. If I'm right, I win. It doesn't make my point of view any less worthwhile. Questioning the status quo is not always a case of sour grapes.

Asking questions about the system and about some of the advice peddled (and the way it is peddled) is something that should be encouraged. The perpetrators of the advice should be able to shed light on my queries and explain how the current sell side of the property market is as it should be, if they indeed believe this to be so.

 

[andrew_de_a]

Asking questions about the system and about some of the advice peddled (and the way it is peddled) is something that should be encouraged. The perpetrators of the advice should be able to shed light on my queries and explain how the current sell side of the property market is as it should be, if they indeed believe this to be so.

what exactly do you mean by this?

 

[Shadow]

Now is the final chance to liquidate and keep your gains, of that, I am confident.

Peace

SYDB

Yes, you might be confident now, but you have been changing your views on a regular basis SydneySide Bear.

A few weeks ago you said this on CreditCrunch...

http://www.********************/forum/index.php?showtopic=4036&view=findpost&p=54472

I have now come full circle, after going through the GFC, watching Keen rise to prominence and following his views, and those of other bears such as Wulfie who reside here. I don't really understand everything Keen, Wulfie and co. say, I really don't and I'm not ashamed of that (I have an IQ of 135). They are clearly very very smart guys. Smarter than your average smart guy.

But I put it to you all that academic smarts don't always lead to real life success. Sometimes it comes down to politics and backdoor deals and factors that academic analysis may not be able to grasp as well as the man on the street. As well as the man whose gut tells him although the argument sounds right, it clearly isn't - for a reason unknown.

Now, I'm not blaming anyone for my extremely bad decision not to buy a home when prices were significantly cheaper. That was my bad decision.

But I think it needs to be pointed out that there are people on this forum and elsewhere, the proclaimed expert on the topic of home prices, who have got it FLAT OUT WRONG. I just want them to admit that (Keen is with his walk to some degree and I respect that alot). I just want them to admit, that even though they are super duper smart and understand economics and markets and whatever to a level that us mere mortals could never dream, that their smarts may not be so "street smart".

I'm done following them. I am no longer a bear. I am not a bull. But I just don't believe these guys any more. Good luck to those who follow them into the future. I hope you enjoy the forum and get more value out of it than I ever did. They talk of negative equity. I'm there, and I don't even own a house.......

Peace

Sydneyside Bear

- - - - -

I wish I had more street smarts and less academic smarts, the older I get, the more I realise street smarts are far more valuable.

Look, I don't really care anymore, it's a hopeless situation. I've missed the boat and now it's either mortgage myself to the eyeballs or buy something I don't wanna buy. I'm going for the mortgage myself to the eyeballs route. What's the worst that can happen. Bankruptcy I guess. Not optimal, but it's a risk I'm going to take. I can honestly see this market steaming ahead for a long time to come. There is no respite out there on the streets. The desperation is tangible.

Tell me please, where are all these buyers going to go? The 100 or so who walk through a property with me every weekend. Where are they going to go?

It's hopeless. It's frustrating. It makes me hate this city I call home.

As I said, I'm not blaming Keen, or Wulfie or anyone. My decisions are my own. But I wish I never had of found this forum and others like it. I wish I had never seen Keen on "your money your call". Then I'd be like all the other ignorant buyers who dived in and are now on their way to the easy life. Ignorance really can be bliss.

So a few weeks ago you were planning to mortgage yourself to the hilt because you thought prices were going to the moon, and now you're telling everyone to run for the hills because prices are going to crash. What will it be next week?

 

[SYDB]

what exactly do you mean by this?

I have explained it very clearly in my previous posts. But again, and to summarise:

The property investing advice/sell side should be far more stringently regulated, akin to the new laws being introduced for financial advisers, given the importance of such advice in the lives of most Australians.

Thoughts?

 

[andrew_de_a]

Why? What's parts of the 'sell' side equation are you referring to? Agents giving advise to whom? Buyers, sellers?