I agree with this but we should not criticise those doing well. Some will always do well. The right attitude.
However, you are correct to say it is the masses that matter when we are looking at the economic future.
Regards Peter 14.7
Is Australia facing the first recession in 20 years?
- Thread starter hobo-jo
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I agree with this but we should not criticise those doing well. Some will always do well. The right attitude.
However, you are correct to say it is the masses that matter when we are looking at the economic future.
Regards Peter 14.7
I never criticise anyone for doing well; no tall poppy stuff here.
Only those who are doing well and choose to be oblivious to the wider world of average folk around them and then ram it down their throats.
"Whaddaya all takin' about? I'm makin plenty!"
etc.
One bloke I know is always crying that he's making no money in his business, times are tough and so on, yet has an X5, a Senator, spends a month at the snow every year etc....many have wiped him for this behavior.
It's about dignity, empathy, compassion and a bit of modesty as well.
Yep; that 98% of folk who didn't get the $100 a day rise....
I met a bloke yesterday at our workshop; he was looking at a second hand car we had for sale. I thought he was looking at it for his granddaughter - a $5,000 number; he was looking at it for himself.
A 58 year old who, until a week ago had a good job with Billy Hyde (or so he thought).
Not easy to find a job at 58.
Also, I vaguely remember yet another car parts company closing the doors earlier this week, too..
Yep; that 98% of folk who didn't get the $100 a day rise....
I met a bloke yesterday at our workshop; he was looking at a second hand car we had for sale. I thought he was looking at it for his granddaughter - a $5,000 number; he was looking at it for himself.
A 58 year old who, until a week ago had a good job with Billy Hyde (or so he thought).
Not easy to find a job at 58.
Also, I vaguely remember yet another car parts company closing the doors earlier this week, too..
Im not that well off. The payrise is well overdue and the stress that comes with it does age people.
I have a dry sense of humour and sometimes it doesn't translate well on a forum.
I hear what your saying. We take our neighbours kids to school everyday because both parents have to work to pay the mortgage.
The payrise comes at a cost.
What you have said is the exact reason I am trying to get into a better position to set myself up, family then extended family.
I enjoyed reading all the input from different people on this thread.
My view leans with the view of Hobo.
I think there are alot of factors worldwide coming into play all at once
and that everyone is going to feel the effects of it when the shish hits the fan.
I have read the different views from people whether it be bullish or bearish.
I guess this question only goes to the bearish members as that is my situation,because if
you are bullish about the economy i guess your not changing much with regards your investments.
So its all well and good saying you are bearish but where are you putting your money?
Cash.... AUD, USD, Swiss francs??
Shares... Selling up or investing more??
Gold and/or Silver... Throwing the lot into precious metals??
Property... In Asia, S.america or elsewhere??
Personally for me i dont consider property a viable option at the moment locally,
i think the Aussie market is overpriced.
My view leans with the view of Hobo.
I think there are alot of factors worldwide coming into play all at once
and that everyone is going to feel the effects of it when the shish hits the fan.
I have read the different views from people whether it be bullish or bearish.
I guess this question only goes to the bearish members as that is my situation,because if
you are bullish about the economy i guess your not changing much with regards your investments.
So its all well and good saying you are bearish but where are you putting your money?
Cash.... AUD, USD, Swiss francs??
Shares... Selling up or investing more??
Gold and/or Silver... Throwing the lot into precious metals??
Property... In Asia, S.america or elsewhere??
Personally for me i dont consider property a viable option at the moment locally,
i think the Aussie market is overpriced.
I see some businesses thinking and changing their strategies eg Kmart you can buy clothes and house hold items cheap, so cheap that their prices are almost at the price you would pay if you went to an Op shop - so now Op shops will have to change.
To me the consumer may have less to spend but some businesses have shifted with the consumer and their competitors are going to have to follow.
If you want a bit better quality and style then go to Target (but you have to know the difference but most people don't have the time to research which could be as simple as going to one shop and looking at a pair of shoes and going to the next shop looking at a pair of shoes).
Now moving on to property - there are lots of opportunities if you have a good strategy sometimes you need experience to see that value and you need to do more than just buy a property although there are plenty of morgagee sales going on.
The key is to look and think and have a go.
Shares are the same, investors now want value so dividend becomes important and the rules have changed so executives renumeraton packages can be pulled in for poor performance.
Back to property...
If I can buy a block of land at a price I think gives me value and I can develop the block by building then I have growth and if I did that now when the subbies are being really competitive with their prices I have a winner, of course there are risks.
Supply and demand, new jobs are created and jobs are lost. The are opportunities out there.
Cheers
Sheryn
Can you elaborate on Aussie overpriced versus where?
I assume you mean compared to other countries where prices have dropped due to economic downturn.
I ask as having recently been in Europe (France) prices didn't seem dropped much to me compared to the economic concerns and slow down which was obvious.
When I asked locals they said the same, prices for housing has not dropped as predicted, they assume due to demand remaining. People are not spending on non essentials like cars, holidays, new clothes etc.. but homes staying as is.
Regards Peter 14.7
Hi Peter
Digressing for a moment, I'm in Paris next April for the marathon and looking for accomodation around central Paris, would you have any recommendations?
Cheers
Pete
Thanks Peter will have a look.
Not a question of where, but what. Aussie houses/land are overpriced vs rents/income/gdp on a historical basis when we compare with times past.
So are cigarettes and 1950s Ferrari Testa Rossas. Relative prices change over time, and don't necessarily change back.
Computers are underpriced vs times past. They're not likely to revert back to old prices either.
So based on your expectations of a "new paradigm" for house/land prices, what ratio is now the new normal vs rents/gdp/income?
What's a reasonable yield for a property investor to consider when buying a residential property? Or can we just throw out any rental measurements and rely on ever increasing prices?
I guess if we all thought the median Sydney house was going to rise by 50% over the next few years then maybe we can just forget about the yield
But, the designs and scale of houses now has changed too.
Years ago the average house was probably about 12 squares -15 squares for decent sized home.
I don't reckon there would be many built these days under 20 squares?
I saw 2 bed apartments selling for "from $399k" yesterday.
I can imagine the $399k one
, the rest will be no doubt well into the 4's and possibly even 5's - but; someone can afford to buy them 'cause building had been completed, so at least half were sold.Block sizes have shrunk and risen in price much more substantially than the cost to of building.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/11/bigger-houses-smaller-blocks/It would be easy to try to blame the high cost of new housing on increasing house sizes. However, to do so would be incorrect when half to two-thirds of the cost of new house and land packages are captured by land values, which have risen substantially over the past decade:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/the-land-bubble/
I dont know where macrobusiness got its data from regarding prices of vacant land in Brisbane. In 2007 a block of land where i live OUTSIDE the BCC area was $200k starting price, not $120k. It has always been more expensive inside the BCC area.
If you could find a block of land for sale in Brisbane today, it would be one third the size of a typical block sold years ago, and probably more than $200k.
The world as we know it is significantly different from what it was even ten years ago. We cannot compare apples with oranges in housing prices, neither increased house size and "basic inclusions" nor land size which is so much smaller for the same "price".
If you could find a block of land for sale in Brisbane today, it would be one third the size of a typical block sold years ago, and probably more than $200k.
The world as we know it is significantly different from what it was even ten years ago. We cannot compare apples with oranges in housing prices, neither increased house size and "basic inclusions" nor land size which is so much smaller for the same "price".
"It's different this time" just doesn't cut it for me.
If prices were reasonable then people would be buying, yet we have mortgage growth at the lowest it's been in some 35 years, new home sales at/near record lows as far as it goes back, etc.
That Brisbane data does look low in the chart above, your example does lineup with the data in the chart they show in second article:
I can imagine the $399k one
Its very easy to get a mortgage nowadays. You may be able to make those repayments now but what happens if you lose your job when the economy takes a dive (i.e as it already seems to be doing) and when jobs arent as plentiful as they have been for the last 10 yrs.Payments are Not so affordable then.
All you need is a very small deposit to get your name on one of these apartments.
Mortgages will go into arrears just like 2008/2009.
Jobs will be shed and major reshuffles will happen just like 2008/2009.
Something has to give and the prices of houses will.
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