Jump in first-home sales

interesting read from the Age
Jump in first-home sales
Natalie Craig
February 23, 2009

THE first-home buyers' boost announced in October is working — at least for the handful of housing developers that dominate the market.

Companies such as Stockland, Mirvac, Lend Lease and Australand have reported a jump in sales to first-home buyers in their otherwise disappointing half-year results.

While developers praise the grants for plumping demand, they have no plans to increase supply — one of the major factors in improving affordability.

On the contrary, they are cutting back. Mirvac, which revealed a 62 per cent fall in December-half operating profits, plans to implement much smaller, staged releases of land.

That is despite exchanging 30 contracts for first-home buyers' stock last weekend — a level of demand not seen by the company since 2002.

"It's more about being more discerning in the projects that we undertake," said managing director Nick Collishaw. "We have to match our forward workbooks so that we have manageable estates rather than mass estates."

Stockland managing director Matthew Quinn said the tripling of the grants for new homes to $21,000 had had a "material impact" on the business.

Sales to first-timers are up by 25 to 30 per cent at Craigieburn in Melbourne's northern growth corridor, which Lend Lease and Stockland dominate.

"We're actually selling off the plan in Craigieburn, because we don't have enough physical product to cope with demand from the first-home owners," Mr Quinn said.

But the group would not be replenishing its residential land lots as a consequence. And Mr Quinn said any boost from interest rate cuts and grants would be irrelevant if banks stopped lending to home buyers.

"It's all contingent on bank lending. Interest rates in England are the lowest they've been since 1694, but who cares if you can't get any money," Mr Quinn said.

David Hutton, head of the residential division of Lend Lease, told The Age that sales had fallen, then stabilised since October.

"There's no doubt things have slowed for us … but that's not always a real bad thing. If the market gets overheated, there's too much supply.

"I think you've got a government here at the moment looking to create sales. The reality is the housing market in Australia is not oversupplied — it's very different from other markets overseas."

There is a risk that demand could plunge again after June 30, when the grants are cut from $21,000 back to $7000. Industry pundits, however, are confident the Federal Government will extend them — but not until the May budget. The sense of urgency created by the looming deadline is still doing its job to bolster sales and activity.

ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said he was not surprised developers were stemming supply.

"These are market conditions … that is why I am normally sceptical about these grants, as in many cases they do result in just simply pushing up the price of houses."

But in the current "unusual circumstances", in which buyers had the upper hand, grants could work.

"Ordinarily, grants end up being capitalised into the price … but in the much rarer occasions when the market is exceptionally weak, it doesn't happen to the same extent."

David Imber of the Victorian Council of Social Service says the onus is on the Federal Government, and not developers, to improve affordability.

"We can't as a community blame developers for taking advantage of the grants … But the reality is, there are probably better and fairer ways to deal with housing affordability," he said.

These included funding social and public housing. "The money that's being invested in public and community housing as part of the Government's $6 billion housing package is really smart," Mr Imber said. "As long as it's not all provided at the back of Craigieburn."

RMIT planning expert Michael Buxton said affordability could be promoted through a more diverse range of lot sizes, house sizes and types.

New-home buyers would therefore not be confined to standard houses — which these days could include the extravagance of en suites and home theatres — and be able to get into the market for less money.

http://www.firsthome.gov.au

I like the way the reporter didn't take side in the bear/bull battle.
 
where as this reporter did!

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25092659-5013951,00.html

Australian property sales dry up

THE property market has slowed to a whimper, with sales crashing to less than a third of last year's levels, despite a surge in first-home buyers capitalising on low interest rates and grants.

Just over 500 properties have sold at auction this year in the major markets of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane, compared with more than 1800 at the same time 12 months ago, The Australian reports.

Only 1775 properties have been placed on the market since January 1, compared with more than 3700 last year.

While auction clearance rates continue to improve, thanks to strong first-home buyer demand for cheaper housing, softness in middle and upper markets is putting the brakes on sales.

Ray White deputy chairman Sam White said a shortage of cheaper properties was the key factor in driving up the clearance rates.

"The market for properties in the under-$400,000 price bracket is very strong at the moment."

One first-home buyer, electrician Jason Peterson, with his wife Marie and two children Brody, 10, and Talia, 8, decided to move from Maroubra, in Sydney's eastern suburbs, to Rockdale in the city's south after seeing how much cheaper home prices were there.

"We realised that for $25 more a week we could start paying off our own home," Mr Peterson said.

"Now we have our own house, with three bedrooms, its own swimming pool, and we are only a 10 minute drive away from the kids' school."

The Petersons paid $580 a week in rent for their two-bedroom unit in Maroubra. The repayments on their Rockdale home, purchased for about $500,000, are $605 a week.
 
I hope the press will see that there is need of balanced report and lots of readers like the balanced view (without thinking the reporter is an idiot).
If anyone will go for these balanced lines they'll have a good high quality readers and get good quality target advertising.
 
I fail to see how this reporter took sides:confused:
Property volumes are poor. That is fact

where as this reporter did!

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25092659-5013951,00.html

Australian property sales dry up

THE property market has slowed to a whimper, with sales crashing to less than a third of last year's levels, despite a surge in first-home buyers capitalising on low interest rates and grants.

Just over 500 properties have sold at auction this year in the major markets of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane, compared with more than 1800 at the same time 12 months ago, The Australian reports.

Only 1775 properties have been placed on the market since January 1, compared with more than 3700 last year.

While auction clearance rates continue to improve, thanks to strong first-home buyer demand for cheaper housing, softness in middle and upper markets is putting the brakes on sales.

Ray White deputy chairman Sam White said a shortage of cheaper properties was the key factor in driving up the clearance rates.

"The market for properties in the under-$400,000 price bracket is very strong at the moment."

One first-home buyer, electrician Jason Peterson, with his wife Marie and two children Brody, 10, and Talia, 8, decided to move from Maroubra, in Sydney's eastern suburbs, to Rockdale in the city's south after seeing how much cheaper home prices were there.

"We realised that for $25 more a week we could start paying off our own home," Mr Peterson said.

"Now we have our own house, with three bedrooms, its own swimming pool, and we are only a 10 minute drive away from the kids' school."

The Petersons paid $580 a week in rent for their two-bedroom unit in Maroubra. The repayments on their Rockdale home, purchased for about $500,000, are $605 a week.
 
I fail to see how this reporter took sides:confused:
Property volumes are poor. That is fact

still not very good report, it lacks of data and this:
Ray White deputy chairman Sam White said a shortage of cheaper properties was the key factor in driving up the clearance rates.
is not very clear as the reporter fail to write that usually are the expensive property in expensive suburb going to auction and cheap homes in cheaper area are not usually sold at auction.
Also the family example is pointless as vacancy rate in sydney is still quite low and reality is far from horde of city tenants moving in cheap suburbs
 
also they only refer to auctions, not private treaty sales.
Auctions are really a melbourne thing... up here in sydney most houses get sold by private treaty. So i dont think his data set is really relevant.
 
As usual the media is lagging behind the people who are on the coalface, I posted previously that there has been a shift in what I am seeing on my little estate at work and it is being reflected throughout the state according to my colleagues.

Three weeks ago there were 4 lots of FHB through my houses, two weeks ago only 2 lots and last week - NONE AT ALL! Prior to Christmas almost everyone was a FHB mixed with a few investors but hardly any 'regular' buyers.

However the traffic passing through now is very good, they are quality buyers in their 50's and 60's looking for 2nd, 3rd, 4th homes and a good many getting out of Sydney and looking for the sea change in later life.

Here is something else that is intriguing me, we are in the midst of the GFC (as opposed to KFC Rob) yet I popped down to the local Stockland shopping centre today to do some networking and the car park was absolutely chokka, hardly a car space in sight.

So riddle me this - On a Monday morning that is not school holidays, 3 days before either the pensions are paid or BHP paydays are due (both being fortnightly) and as far as I know the latest stimulas dollars are still to be dished out - why on earth are all of these people who are supposed to be thinking that the sky is falling spending their hard earned as fast as they can?

Or did I dream it cos thats not how it is according to the media?

Just another little observation from the real world as opposed to the one we are reading about, is it just my world or is anyone else having similar observations where they are?
 
I agree with you observations Sparky, but to answer your question, have you heard of the trickle down effect. The people at the shopping centres have read about or are aware of the GFC but few have been effected yet. Interest rates are low, petrol has only started to climb back up, a large government stimulus past and another on the way, retails sales (heavy discounting) over the last few months have been fantastic, unemployment just starting to move up from a very low base, why would consumer stop spending.

As the global economy and Australian economy starts to weaken/slow, which trickles down to large businesses and then small, job loses start to occur more frequently and people begin to constrain their spending. When people start to hear of friends losing jobs then I believe the trickle has finally reached the bottom of the well and will be evident i the reduced numbers at retail shopping centres.

From my own observations, the many small business (up to 50 employees) I consult to have started to lay of workers, have reduced orders and are starting to prepare for reduced activity this year. The ones that seem to hardest hit are those supplying retail products & solutions to the retail sector.

Getting back to the thread,

I see why the FHB are jumping into the market for the following reasons :
1) Interest rates are low and could go even lower
2) Lending practices have only started to be tightened.
3) For many years now, property has returned exceptional annual CG., they want a piece of it.
4) Affordability (questionable but I won't debate it here) has increased with lower interest rates
5) The government is handing you a decent amount of money to help you get started, this may even mean that you need little savings to purchase you dream home.
6) For how long has the media and the general population stated "property only ever goes up".
7) A mortgage is about the same cost as renting but is only part of the equation, one must consider capital growth but they may not.
8) Property has peaked, prices are down slightly, it would seem like a good time to buy.
9) The grants on offer finish at the end of June, better get in before you can no longer get that free money.

I also have a question regarding FHB and subprime but will start a new thread than distrupt this one.

Benjamin
 
As in previous recessions, so long as you keep your job then you will do OK, possibly better than OK.
Unemployment is where the real problems begin.
Marg
 
Made a couple of calls regarding low end property today..

With a few exceptions....all are under contract or sold!

The FHB stampede is here in Sydney...:rolleyes:
 
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The FHB stampede is here in Sydney...:rolleyes:

Also the case in the Northern Rivers NSW but not really a stampede yet. Spoke with 2 agents today who say that sub 450k is THE market at present which is presenting nearly all of the action in sales and interest.
 
Marg must agree 100%.
If you have a job and can keep it then you can certainly do great over long term.
But everyone else that is concerned about job security and GFC (Not Wings & chips) will always be concervative.
That is why i am still bearish at present.
But i will jump back in when i think it is right.

Most others will jump in quite a bit later.
Which gives me a profit on exiting:cool:
 
About 11am. Got the Solar cell trimmed, had a coffee and picked up some fruit and seafood. Did you see the WA lobsters for $17 each?
 
I agree with you observations Sparky, but to answer your question, have you heard of the trickle down effect. The people at the shopping centres have read about or are aware of the GFC but few have been effected yet. Interest rates are low, petrol has only started to climb back up, a large government stimulus past and another on the way, retails sales (heavy discounting) over the last few months have been fantastic, unemployment just starting to move up from a very low base, why would consumer stop spending. Benjamin

Yes I realise this but the media reports are telling us that most people are not spending up but are paying down debt or putting their money away for a rainy day - yet in reality they are out there spending! Maybe journalists don't go to shopping centres!
 
About 11am. Got the Solar cell trimmed, had a coffee and picked up some fruit and seafood. Did you see the WA lobsters for $17 each?

If I did I would have puked can't stand sea food I usually hold my breath when I zip past the sea food stall! Were you getting a trim after reading about Rob to check whether its true? LOL
 
Hi, I put this in the other thread.

Even the unemployed have to live somewhere.

This person came to me with a list of numbers.

Got approved for home loan $290000

H&L package [Hickinbotham @ Westwood, Mitchell Park] =$321000

Interest on loan = $14500 p.a.
Their current rent = $300+ pw = $17000 p.a. approx

Therefore, on IO loan, they don't pay anymore by living in a brand new 4 BR home of their own [big enough for son & girlfriend too who pay 'rent']

Their situation? He's not working, having just taken a payout from Work Cover [$70000] she's receiving Centrelink benefits.

Their $321000 not likely to fall in value simply because they can't find a cheap rental. Ain't no such animal anymore.

KY
 
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