Just how bad will this all get ???

Token Funder said:
They didn't overlap. One was sourced from exclusively from aneki.com and one from Mercer.
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Raw data/stats sourced from, yes, but also additional commentary and analysis added.

Token Funder said:
So you would contend that "alternative" views with equally poor or absent methodologies add to the debate? Nine poorly researched or unreferenced pieces of research are no improvement on 1 poorly researched or unreferenced piece of research.
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I content that nine views are better than one, yes. That the methodologies are 'poor' or 'absent' is just your opinion, but even if they are, nine views is still better than one.

Token Funder said:
I would have though that if you were genuinely interested in the research rather than simple link mining for anything that supports your position you might have come across, I don't know, these:

Ableson, P. & Chung, D. 2004, ‘Housing prices in Australia: 1970 to 2003’
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Already done. See below... :D

House Prices in Australia since 1970: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33666

By the way, most of your unlinked reports (which were just copied and pasted from http://www.aph.gov.au/SEnate/committee/hsaf_ctte/report/d03.htm , so you really didn't do any research, analysis or compilation yourself) do not compare prices in Australia with prices in other countries, which is what we were talking about with reference to Demographia.

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
Shadow said:
By the way, most of your unlinked reports (which were just copied and pasted from http://www.aph.gov.au/SEnate/committee/hsaf_ctte/report/d03.htm , so you really didn't do any research, analysis or compilation yourself) do not compare prices in Australia with prices in other countries, which is what we were talking about with reference to Demographia.

Cheers,

Shadow.
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Didn't claim I did and have pointed those interested to the full report (see previous post). Old research trick...find the biggest and most relevant meta-analysis you can find and churn through their bibliography....saves time and picks up on references and publications that the lazy-mans research tool (Google) doesn't have.

The neat thing about parliamentary reports is that they have paid researchers tracking down all sorts of obscure stuff, including gear not yet published and proceedings of obscure committees that aren't exactly search-optimised.

There is more to the world than Google!

In any case, *I'm* not claiming any expertise on housing affordability...just trying to help you out given that in spite of your impressive pursuit of objective information on the subject you appeared to have missed a sizable, detailed, relevant and recent piece of work.

Your welcome. Enjoy.
 
Blue Card! said:
i can't believe this post was made today - clearly off 3month old data. all the FOREX blokes i know are screaming BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY on the pound - all bulls there for the next few weeks at least :rolleyes:

anyone linking to the telegraph deserves to be shot.
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I agree that anyone that post a link to the telegraph deserve to be shot.
but still no way professional trader would scream buy buy buy on the pound. during this week it rebound up a bit and this morning I went to short it against the euro at 0.906 as there is strong support at 0.905. Last week GBP got to the lowest point at 1.35 against the US$ and now it is back at 1.42. There is a big risk of UK economy imploding, on top of everything they have a huge deficit on the budget this year and for the foreseeble future.
I give you this link from a trader blog.
and this view from Soros that you can't believe how important are his position on the matter (could even be that the rebound of the pound is because of his statement).
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros, who made $1 billion selling the pound in 1992, said he is no longer betting against the U.K. currency after it reached $1.40.

“I did actually foresee the fall in sterling and that was one of the positions we carried,” he told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Below $1.40 “it seemed to me the risk-reward was no longer clear.”

Soros said today that he has made money from the financial crisis. The British government’s efforts to protect the banking system from the turmoil last week led to a drop in the pound to the lowest level against the dollar since 1985. The currency traded at $1.4313 as of 12:56 p.m. in London today.

“We did have a short position in sterling, but it doesn’t mean I’m bearish on sterling today or bullish,” Soros said. “It will continue to fluctuate.”

Soros’s comments contrast with those of Jim Rogers, who co- founded the Quantum Fund with him and is now chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings. Rogers said Jan. 20 that the pound was “finished” because of turmoil in the banking system and a decline in North Sea oil output.

Hungarian-born Soros gained fame more than 16 years ago when he broke the Bank of England’s defense of the pound and drove the currency from Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. Other successful trades included a bet that the deutsche mark would rise after the collapse of the Berlin wall and a wager that Japanese stocks would start to tumble in 1989.

Brown’s Comments

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has so far resisted addressing sterling’s plunge and dismissed the warnings of investors by saying the government’s policy is to target inflation and not the exchange rate.

“The experience of targeting the pound and targeting the exchange rate has not been one particularly beneficial to this country,” Brown said today in Parliament.

Soros said his long-held pessimism in the outlook in the world economy allowed him to make money during the crisis.

“I was able to protect my capital and get a rate of return,” he said. “In the current environment, to be in positive territory is itself an accomplishment.”
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still now the pound at 1.42 is higher then the key point of 1.40 stated by soros...
 
US stocks have worst January EVER ...

US markets just about closed with the worst Jan result for the indices (DOW, S&P etc) EVER. There is a pretty strong correlation between the Jan result and then the whole year result. This is an indicator that for calendar 2009, shares will finish lower than 2008.
LL
 
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black dragon said:
Boz

I think we have them on the run! Great to see Editorial in The Age is winning the war with advertising..for now.
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I've just realised Enzo replyed to the report on the age here, amaze me how media gives credit on these source of data, even the sample that change between 50,000 and 60,000 seems very dodgy, and it is so easy for them with their system to manipulate data with none that.
Anyway, seems today the age put more fire on the rental war:

Rent data unfit to publish
Dewi Cooke
January 31, 2009

OFFICIAL government figures on the state of Victoria's rental market have been missing since May and, when they finally are released, are likely to be nine months out of date.

Substandard data collection has been blamed for the long delay in the Office of Housing's quarterly rental report, which last published figures from March.

The Residential Tenancies Bond Authority, a government agency under the auspices of Consumer Affairs Victoria, is responsible for collecting the information and outsourced the task to an Indian-based company, iGate, which has offices in Ballarat.

The data was then passed on to the Office of Housing for analysis but was said to be unusable.

"I was not prepared to publish data that we could not stand by," Housing Minister Richard Wynne said.

The information in the Rental Report is considered a truer indication of the state of the market because the authority records all official rental agreements lodged in the state.

Figures provided by the real estate industry rely on publicly advertised rent or rents reported by agents.

Reports of Melbourne's rental vacancy rate have swung from a tight 1.2 per cent to a healthier 3.9 per cent.

The Office of Housing's December quarter figures are now expected to be published on time in March, while the figures from June and September 2008 will be rolled into one report.

But Opposition Housing spokeswoman Wendy Lovell questioned the delay and said Victorians had been left in the dark about the market.

"You've got to wonder what they are trying to hide." she said.

The Tenants Union of Victoria's Toby Archer said accurate and up-to-date information was "crucial" as the state's rental crisis continued.

A spokeswoman for Consumer Affairs Victoria said data collection for the report had always been outsourced but iGate had been contracted only since July.

"As sometimes happens when moving to a new processing system, a number of teething problems occurred," she said. "These issues have since been resolved."
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this apparent war between the age and REIV seems interesting,

Have you got any comment Black Dragon? If you are behind all that you are a genius :D
 
boz said:
I've just realised Enzo replyed to the report on the age here, amaze me how media gives credit on these source of data, even the sample that change between 50,000 and 60,000 seems very dodgy, and it is so easy for them with their system to manipulate data with none that.
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If the IT guys supposed to collect the data for the gov. agency didn't spend their time cyberloafing they may have had time to collect the data properly and then we wouldn't have to rely on Enzo's "dodgy" data.
If SQM is using data from the 2006 Census for their calculations then their data is even more useless and inaccurate then the one collected by iGate. We all know that the easiest way to get out of completing the Census form is to NOT live in the house over the Census night. Why don't you create a a poll and see how many posters here have just remembered that they may have accidentally made a mistake on the form. I doubt that more then half the posters here have completed the forms 100% correctly.
And while you doing polls why not do one on the other site, since there are more paranoid conspiracy theorists over there I suspect you'll find an even large percentage of wrongly completed forms. ;)
 
yorke said:
If the IT guys supposed to collect the data for the gov. agency didn't spend their time cyberloafing they may have had time to collect the data properly and then we wouldn't have to rely on Enzo's "dodgy" data.
If SQM is using data from the 2006 Census for their calculations then their data is even more useless and inaccurate then the one collected by iGate. We all know that the easiest way to get out of completing the Census form is to NOT live in the house over the Census night. Why don't you create a a poll and see how many posters here have just remembered that they may have accidentally made a mistake on the form. I doubt that more then half the posters here have completed the forms 100% correctly.
And while you doing polls why not do one on the other site, since there are more paranoid conspiracy theorists over there I suspect you'll find an even large percentage of wrongly completed forms. ;)
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So is the point you're trying to make:

a) REIV's assertions are crap?
b) SQM's assertions are crap?
c) The Census data is crap?
d) All of the above
e) None of the above
f) I'm not sure.

;)
 
must admit,

rates cut tomorrow,

people saying it will be the worst reporting season in history

we are only 4 weeks into the year and people are quoting "write off 2009"

some opinions are Full of it but some are quite respectable.

Im not a doom and gloomer and think the property market won't crash and just be stagnant, but Im not too sure now...


just my feeling...
 
boomtown said:
I might put myself into the D&G category.
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I went along to three auction outlets this morning one out of the three is winding up the business,and this was a very high flow auction house, I know the guy that runs this place,he told me upfront his landlord has put the rent up by 40% with the new lease thinking he had him by the ba==s
he told me upfront that with the extra rent and all the other problems he is better to go and play golf for 2 years,then have a rethink in 3 years time,the funny part is half the comm buildings in that street have been up
for lease for over 9 months,makes me think Australia has not even started
to see the downturn yet,if you can't make it in the auction game with gov contracts then who can:rolleyes:..willair..
 
Would you call the owner of the commercial building the auction business is renting a blind optimist who is maybe more than a little deluded?

Makes me think most people don't know whats coming. Especially people like him. Lucky we have this forum. ;)

willair said:
I went along to three auction outlets this morning one out of the three is winding up the business,and this was a very high flow auction house, I know the guy that runs this place,he told me upfront his landlord has put the rent up by 40% with the new lease thinking he had him by the ba==s
he told me upfront that with the extra rent and all the other problems he is better to go and play golf for 2 years,then have a rethink in 3 years time,the funny part is half the comm buildings in that street have been up
for lease for over 9 months,makes me think Australia has not even started
to see the downturn yet,if you can't make it in the auction game with gov contracts then who can:rolleyes:..willair..
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evand said:
Would you call the owner of the commercial building the auction business is renting a blind optimist who is maybe more than a little deluded?

Makes me think most people don't know whats coming. Especially people like him. Lucky we have this forum. ;)
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Evand,My mate is not worried 1%,most auction houses stand outside the mainstream fundamental economic departments,stability and the absence of crises encourage??? high level risk taking, he just made up his mind last night that it's better to sit on the sidelines for a while,and keep what ever money he has made,rather then prop up someones property
payments,and good luck to him,he has made a fortune from the;) auction game..willair..
 
Good on him and he's probably doing the right thing. As a mate of mine said years ago. "I can go broke sitting on the beach, i don't have to work to do it."

But i was referring to the owner of the building.


willair said:
Evand,My mate is not worried 1%,most auction houses stand outside the mainstream fundamental economic departments,stability and the absence of crises encourage??? high level risk taking, he just made up his mind last night that it's better to sit on the sidelines for a while,and keep what ever money he has made,rather then prop up someones property
payments,and good luck to him,he has made a fortune from the;) auction game..willair..
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