grossreal... do you mean mortgage funds that don't have the same gov't g'tee as the banks?
Thanks
LL
Just how bad will this all get ???
- Thread starter landlubber
- Start date
grossreal... do you mean mortgage funds that don't have the same gov't g'tee as the banks?
Thanks
LL
Try the Accord Euro or Legend, I think they're still made in Japan. Or if you were after a 4x4 to bully the other road users a Toyota Cruiser does a much better job then the Honda CRV and is made in Japan. Even better job if you add a steel ARB bullbar and a 4" lift kit.
Try the Accord Euro or Legend, I think they're still made in Japan. Or if you were after a 4x4 to bully the other road users a Toyota Cruiser does a much better job then the Honda CRV and is made in Japan. Even better job if you add a steel ARB bullbar and a 4" lift kit.
The current Accord Euro (new one) is no longer made in Japan. The Legend still is I believe.
I also see so many fantastic residential property opportunities at the moment. Price drops in decent suburbs where I haven't seen lower prices for a very long time. This is on good solid investment properties with good fundamentals. If I could, I would be taking advantage of this but unfortunately I have been told that my job wont be there past Christmas. Not finding it easy picking up something else either So my concern now is hanging on to what I have rather than expanding.
Still I think if you can afford to and have a secure job it is a great time to invest in property!
So my concern now is hanging on to what I have rather than expanding. Still I think if you can afford to and have a secure job it is a great time to invest in property!
US sheds over 500,000 jobs in November.
Since Sept 08 the US has shed average 419,000 jobs per month and if anything , it's accelerating. Nov. was over 1/2 mill. ( Seems now the election is over the figures have been revised upwards significantly.) Total 1.25m jobs gone in last 3 months.
Here's the link ...interesting stuff.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-job-cuts-fuel-economic-woes-20081206-6svq.html
I'd say the US is definitely in bad shape. Will Oz escape the worst of it?
That's the 64 dollar question.
LL
Since Sept 08 the US has shed average 419,000 jobs per month and if anything , it's accelerating. Nov. was over 1/2 mill. ( Seems now the election is over the figures have been revised upwards significantly.) Total 1.25m jobs gone in last 3 months.
Here's the link ...interesting stuff.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-job-cuts-fuel-economic-woes-20081206-6svq.html
I'd say the US is definitely in bad shape. Will Oz escape the worst of it?
That's the 64 dollar question.
LL
I also see so many fantastic residential property opportunities at the moment. Price drops in decent suburbs where I haven't seen lower prices for a very long time. This is on good solid investment properties with good fundamentals. If I could, I would be taking advantage of this but unfortunately I have been told that my job wont be there past Christmas. Not finding it easy picking up something else either
Still I think if you can afford to and have a secure job it is a great time to invest in property!
i have a job until march- thats because its a contract though with a gov agency. Gov jobs are generally fairly secure unless your a senior exec there could be some losses. I just bought a house as well so im scared i cant just quit my jobs any more without having another one to go too.
was watching the business review program on abc this morning and the consensus from the "expert panel" was that things were going to get significantly worse in the short term - but when the economy starts to recover (expected end 2009) the recovery will be extremely quick.
basically took from it (and so did pessimistic hubby) was that one needs to be in position "before" the recovery starts.
interesting times.
anyhow we're looking at another rentable ip for townhouse development in 2009/10. we already have plans that would fit the site perfectly from a previous development.
basically took from it (and so did pessimistic hubby) was that one needs to be in position "before" the recovery starts.
interesting times.
anyhow we're looking at another rentable ip for townhouse development in 2009/10. we already have plans that would fit the site perfectly from a previous development.
Lizzie if you believe the "expert panel" nonsense about short term pain long term gain then I have a prime piece of real estate for you in the Simpson desert
In todays Age a graph showed the annual return of the S&P for the last hundred and forty years. Only two years managed to lose between 40 and 50%. 1932 & 2008
.We now have the US government saying that the U.S. has been in recession for a year ....duh with half a million jobs lost in the last month and the aussie government cooking the books saying the economie grew by 1%
Do you just maybe get the feeling that you have been fed a line of #ull $hit?
Lizzie if you believe the "expert panel" nonsense about short term pain long term gain then I have a prime piece of real estate for you in the Simpson desert
I've just watched the recorded program. I thought what they said is quite sensible and fair? Everyone has different opinion on "when" the recovery starts, but what they've described does fit how sharemarket behaves. Note, they did not say anything about how fast property market recovers, because it tends to lag behind sharemarket.
From 1973 to 1975 the S&P went from 121 down to 62 which is ~48% decline.
A similar drop in the Dow and All Ords.
The Jan 1973 high was'nt taken out till Oct 1982.
I took 9 years for the market to get back.
To note that after the 1929 crash, the Dow did'nt take out the Sep 1929 high till Dec 1954. Thats 25 yrs!
I think that is the decade to watch in order to gain clues about what's next.
A similar drop in the Dow and All Ords.
The Jan 1973 high was'nt taken out till Oct 1982.
I took 9 years for the market to get back.
To note that after the 1929 crash, the Dow did'nt take out the Sep 1929 high till Dec 1954. Thats 25 yrs!
I think that is the decade to watch in order to gain clues about what's next.
i was just borne during this time so cant speak from personal experience
But from ive read, it was characterised with
vietnam war (probably not a big deal in the course of history)
huge oil spikes
arab countries putting an embargo on oil to the USA (yip this one would be scarey)
massive inflation coupled with huge wage push inflation
communism and threat of neclear war.
What have we got in 2008:
a credit crisis.
lol I'd say that a very simple way of looking at it.
What we have a great big black hole that nobody has yet really disclosed it's full details.
There was a global derivatives industry that peaked at >$60 trillion usd that is now worth only a fraction of that amount. Infact the only buyers are governments bailing out there banks, on borrowed money (created from nothing) created from the central banks.
The whole OECD is engaged in this market. Their whole financial systems are "invested" (very loose term) in this market. Banks, Schools, charities, retirement funds, councils, states and who knows what else.
So we are looking at a loss of $40 trillion USD spread out in every nook & cranny of the finance world.
The US also spent (blown lol) a few trillions on war. All unproductive money issued on credit.
The RBA has been propping up Australian banks just like the US, UK & EU have. And now Kevin Dudd hands out $ Billions. All borrowed money.
Can you wipe out $30-40 trillion usd and it not have any consequences?
The US is still the driver of the world economy, where it goes, all else follow.
Can you hand out Billions without having anyone pay for it?
So who is going to pay for all of this?
Given history as a guide, we will. One way or the other.
The more you got to lose, the more you can pay.
Lizzie if you believe the "expert panel" nonsense about short term pain long term gain then I have a prime piece of real estate for you in the Simpson desert
Do you just maybe get the feeling that you have been fed a line of #ull $hit?
Hi NR,
Perhaps I'm reading this wrong, but recently your posts seem to be growing more angry and aggressive. Is this because you are starting to doubt your own prophecy, or is there some other reason?
Cheers,
Shadow.
good post!
I also think that never in the last 30 years you don't know where is the best place to put your money without the risk of loosing them. This is the opposite then in the last 10 year that wherever you put your money they did increase in value.
no need to get offensive ... i took it with a grain of salt and filed it away will all the other information being gathered.
personally i think 2009/10 is a great period to buy and build - assuming you can hold - because it's a good time to buy, with the fall in construction/reno's tradies/builder will be cheaper, with the drop in resource prices constuction materials will be cheaper and when things turn around in australia, they will turn around very quickly (imo) due to pent up demand.
sorry, not interested in the simpson desert ... doesn't suit my plan. sorry to hear that you bought there in the past.
i've been googling to try and find a relevent chart to show the last 100 years - but have to go an put out the washing, and can't be bothered to spend ages searching for a chart simply to "point score". i think you'll find the australian sharemarket has halved (or come very very close) more than twice in the last 100 years. black monday period springs to mind when the dow lost 22% in one day - and the stock market plunged from approx 2200 point to around 1200.
One of the consequences of the internet age, is the efficient transmition of information good or bad, and the opinions expressed on them.
Maybe you should look at the media reports (especially editorials and commentatories) after Oct 87, and in the 70's, just to give a 'feel' to consumer expectations during those difficult times.
Maybe you should look at the media reports (especially editorials and commentatories) after Oct 87, and in the 70's, just to give a 'feel' to consumer expectations during those difficult times.
That's a very good point chilliaa.
If you have a computer and an internet connection you can broadcast your p.o.v. to the world via blogs, viral messaging (emails), network sites (facebook, etc) and forums like SS. With very few exceptions theres no quality control. Imo, the internet age has given conspiracy theorists the mainstream voice they have never had before.
Also, and I think if you consider the behaviour of stock markets you can see this, now we have online broking. Gone are the days when buy/sell orders were placed via phone (or fax?) with a broker who, if you spoke to them, may advise you to not buy or sell. These days, we can all be traders - with a few clicks you can trade on a variety of markets (stocks, forex, etc). Maybe you're thinking twice before you buy or sell (in the case of equities, probably selling of late), but chances are you're letting human emotion (fear in particular atm) take hold and acting accordingly.
In the internet age, the ability for information (of varying quality) to be spread very rapidly, and for people to be able to act on that information instantly inherantly makes the markets more volatile.
If you have a computer and an internet connection you can broadcast your p.o.v. to the world via blogs, viral messaging (emails), network sites (facebook, etc) and forums like SS. With very few exceptions theres no quality control. Imo, the internet age has given conspiracy theorists the mainstream voice they have never had before.
Also, and I think if you consider the behaviour of stock markets you can see this, now we have online broking. Gone are the days when buy/sell orders were placed via phone (or fax?) with a broker who, if you spoke to them, may advise you to not buy or sell. These days, we can all be traders - with a few clicks you can trade on a variety of markets (stocks, forex, etc). Maybe you're thinking twice before you buy or sell (in the case of equities, probably selling of late), but chances are you're letting human emotion (fear in particular atm) take hold and acting accordingly.
In the internet age, the ability for information (of varying quality) to be spread very rapidly, and for people to be able to act on that information instantly inherantly makes the markets more volatile.
Yep. I personally don't take all that much notice of the dire predictions (or the overly exhuberant ones) of anonymous people on internet forums. Sometimes these people would be very clever, well informed and well connected, and for same reason take time out of their busy day to enlighten the masses. But sometimes they would be people sitting around their darkened loungeroom surfing the internet and parroting opinions from other anonymous people doing likewise.
Scott
Oops ... RBA was focussed on wrong "monster"...
Turns out inflation was not the problem... Turns out those highly paid smart white guys at the RBA were all focussed on the wrong problem.
http://www.businessday.com.au/busin...s-the-long-buildup-in-debt-20081207-6tam.html
To all those "RBA lovers" out there on the forum who continually posted ......." faith in the RBA, they know what they're doing" ..... I blow you a large rasberry.
LL
Turns out inflation was not the problem... Turns out those highly paid smart white guys at the RBA were all focussed on the wrong problem.
http://www.businessday.com.au/busin...s-the-long-buildup-in-debt-20081207-6tam.html
To all those "RBA lovers" out there on the forum who continually posted ......." faith in the RBA, they know what they're doing" ..... I blow you a large rasberry.
LL
For the most part, I'm a fan of the RBA. I'm quite happy to admit it.
I noticed Gittins' opening remark:
"WARNING: the following comment benefits from the wisdom of hindsight."
The moral of the story being - anyone can tell you who won on the weekend when Monday morning rolls around.
Anyway, back to the article, to be fair to the RBA - they are not legislation or policy-makers. That domain belongs to the Government. If the rose-tinted-20-20-vision-glasses-of-history adjudge that the RBA was fighting the wrong war, then those same glasses should have enough clarity to likewise acknowledge that they were given the wrong orders and that it was a global, not local, phenomenon.
Gittin's also says:
"For a decade the world's central bankers have been worrying about inflation when they should have been worrying about excessive borrowing."
He could be implying that inflation targeting has passed its use-by date. I've personally wondered as much myself, but a recent conversation with Dr Don Brash (Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of NZ) highlighted to me that cpi targeting is still alive and kicking.
What I think will happen in the post-2008 world is that, as Gittin's suggests, government's may look to impose greater controls on lending - but that is more an issue for APRA.
I noticed Gittins' opening remark:
"WARNING: the following comment benefits from the wisdom of hindsight."
The moral of the story being - anyone can tell you who won on the weekend when Monday morning rolls around.
Anyway, back to the article, to be fair to the RBA - they are not legislation or policy-makers. That domain belongs to the Government. If the rose-tinted-20-20-vision-glasses-of-history adjudge that the RBA was fighting the wrong war, then those same glasses should have enough clarity to likewise acknowledge that they were given the wrong orders and that it was a global, not local, phenomenon.
Gittin's also says:
"For a decade the world's central bankers have been worrying about inflation when they should have been worrying about excessive borrowing."
He could be implying that inflation targeting has passed its use-by date. I've personally wondered as much myself, but a recent conversation with Dr Don Brash (Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of NZ) highlighted to me that cpi targeting is still alive and kicking.
What I think will happen in the post-2008 world is that, as Gittin's suggests, government's may look to impose greater controls on lending - but that is more an issue for APRA.