I have read on those forums and particularly that post. I think you should re-write it "the conclusion" to "my(shadow's) conclusion" as your research was not anywhere near definitive and was actually shown not to be correct. We have also seen via apf.com rpdata that recent clearance rates for Melbourne for the single weekend went from 68% to low 50% range after some unreported auctions were reported. There is still a huge amount unreported though which may bring it down even further.. I will try and dig up the link.
Left wing political group orchestrating home buyers strike...
- Thread starter GoingDHfast
- Start date
I have read on those forums and particularly that post. I think you should re-write it "the conclusion" to "my(shadow's) conclusion" as your research was not anywhere near definitive and was actually shown not to be correct. We have also seen via apf.com rpdata that recent clearance rates for Melbourne for the single weekend went from 68% to low 50% range after some unreported auctions were reported. There is still a huge amount unreported though which may bring it down even further.. I will try and dig up the link.
The discussion was about APM data (not RPData), and the average APM revision during 2010 was -2.5%. Those are the facts. Nothing was disputed. Hobo-jo brought up the subject of APM revisions and that is what I responded to. Your anecdote about RPData clearance rates for an isolated weekend in 2011 is not relevant to my statement about the average 2010 APM revision.
Just to fill others in on the alternate viewpoint.
BlackDragon (an insider in the real estate business) was one of those blowing the whistle on the fudging of numbers.
(As was one of the largest independent auction houses in Sydney).
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8111378&t=8476676
I am of the opinion that BlackDragon's opinions were worthy of attention, and his estimate of 50% real clearance rate as opposed to the fudged one seems far higher than an error of just 2.5%.
Make of it what you will.
(edit: added independent)
It was Black Dragon himself who advised us of the -2.5% margin of error figure. In the post you linked to he says...
"the clearance rate for the 5th of March would have been 51% instead of the initial 56% reported"
So, yes, for that isolated weekend, the clearance rate was an estimated 5% higher than it should have been, but across the whole of 2010, the average revision was only -2.5%, and on 25% of occasions the initial clearance rate was actually revised up, not down.
Can you please post this entire dataset that you are quoting... I was under the impression that the entire data set of 2010 was not available to you or myself so your obvious confidence of this 2.5% for all of 2010 is interesting.
Thanks.
btw... I believed that BD was ringing alarm bells specifically for the early 2011 period in the story... although he did say the practice of reporting had become more obviously skewed away from accuracy over the last year or two.
Thanks.
btw... I believed that BD was ringing alarm bells specifically for the early 2011 period in the story... although he did say the practice of reporting had become more obviously skewed away from accuracy over the last year or two.
Off topic, I know, but after reading through this thread, I decided to hop over to this forum, just for a look. Well, Hobo I agree with your summation. I have never seen a less civilised bunch. Anytime someone disagrees with anything, they throw a bunch of abuse at each other. Swearing, name calling, anything goes. Oh, and apparently we are all delusional, here on SS.
Well let me tell you, I'd rather be delusional, and be able to debate an issue in an intelligent, civilised manner without resorting to schoolyard pranks, which is what the sockpuppets do.
Sorry guys, just had to rant.
Well, it's true that there is virtually no censorship of views, and moderation is very light... which can result in some 'robust' debate at times. I guess you do need a thick skin there sometimes if you've got a strong viewpoint to defend. Most of the bears there don't like me very much so I tend to cop a bit of abuse!
Well Shadow, it was certainly an interesting place. I've never heard of it before, & I won't be in a hurry to go back there, but in saying that, I'm glad I had a look. I'm pretty thick skinned, but I don't tolerate buffoons well, so I'll stay here, where I'm comfortable and can have intelligent conversation, even when two parties have opposing views.
i am a member of this forum obviously and a reader over there but I must say the reason why people on this board would not like that board is because there is an alternate view which you do not really find on this forum.
Most posts and threads here give the feel that property can only go up. Only property positive views are really held and anyone who disagrees is shot down.
I prefer to see arguments from all views rather than being one-eyed
I know this is a PI forum, but to be blind to the real world is not smart
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70182
This particular thread made me laugh.
The truth is NO ONE knows where house prices are heading and there is no guarantee they will go down or up but to call it a "great time to buy" is crazy. It is still near a high (what happened to buy low sell high). Yield is not worth it either.
I disagree! There are people here - even long term investors - that are not buying right now, for whatever reasons. These people will often state their views, and that is that. They don't get into a heated arguement about it. They don't tell those that are currently purchasing that they are fools etc, etc. I respect that, and I believe others do too, whereas the real D&G type trolls go to great lengths to put people down because of their choices.
You ask any long term EXPERIENCED property investor if property only goes up. I bet you won't get a direct agreement. Property moves in cycles. While it might be going up in Melbourne, it might be pulling back in Perth and staying flat in Sydney. What I think you are misunderstanding is that LONG TERM, property will generally increase. Even if you ignore market forces and look at inflation only, it is obivous that property will increase in price. Just like your groceries. You can't go by a loaf of bread at the same price that you did 20 years ago, so why would you expect to buy a property at the same (or lower) price?
Of course, there are exceptions. You might have paid top dollar to buy a property in Timbucktoo and then the only employer in town closes down, so people leave the area, making your home now worth only a fraction of the price.
Actually, I was put down for about 100 pages for simply saying I honestly cannot afford property. People got very personal and nasty so don't try and say that all members on this forum are little angels b .c they're not.
You got bagged because people presented all sorts of options for you, and gave lots of different advice, and you decided you didn't like any of it because it didn't suit the idea you had in your head.
But good work for coming back and joining the discussion.
Spot on! But even when he did get bagged, it wasn't done in the manner that I saw, just in a few minutes, on that other forum.
No you guys just want to make property sound like it is as affordable now as it has ever been and possibly even more affordable.
I'm realistic and I've said I can't afford it and that causes offense on this forum. I guess it dents people's confidence when the average income earner admits that they can't even afford the most basic house.
Then you lot crap on about not having a plan when mine is clear.
Save a 50k deposit get and get an income of around 85k a year. Then you lot crap on about getting an interest only loan on a 270k piece of junk high rise 2 bedroom apartment so you can barely make the repayments and have to share with someone and constantly fear bankruptcy because you are betting it might go up even higher.
F'that I'll save my money, get a better income and then buy what I can comfortably afford to buy, which btw won't be much, probably a cheap one two bedroom unit.
That is obviously the view of a lot of FHBers : we can't afford it. Hence the reason for this kind of "strike".
Personally, I don't want to make a 400k bet that the market will keep increasing at 10% per year... no thank you very much.
I'm guessing this is aimed at my son's purchase for $290K for a two bedroom unit that he is sharing with a friend until he can afford to live alone, if ever he wants to. It is five minutes (3.5km) from the city and in a very desirable suburb.
Certainly, it is not the Ritz, but it isn't a "junk high rise" apartment. It is a nice, reasonably spacious two bedroom unit, in a block of four. He has spent about $6K on a new bathroom and paint, curtains, and it is looking fantastic. I would guess he has increased the value considerably more than $6K.
He is three months into his mortgage and managing very well, thank you. Not quite shaking in his boots and "fearing bankruptcy" just yet
.Just to remind you, his income is $38.5K and his repayments are less than $400 per week. He is managing very well.
You just need to "open you mind" to the endless possibilities all around you, but I just don't think you have the capacity. Pity.
How dare I aim to save and purchase what I can afford. How dare I. How dare all first home buyers act responsbiliy. How dare we.
I agree the thread over there about Somersoft members is over the top and unnecessary, but most threads aren't like that.