Liverpool Sydney -- will it be good area to buy?

[Purple]

Hi everyone,

I m planning to buy my first property (finally) in coming months. And has been looking at western area (liverpool, campbelltown) as my target.

I heard that lvpool was intended to be 3rd City of Sydney and price of the unit there quite reasonable. If it is so, then it probably will be one of booming place in near future?

Do anyone has any idea or concern regarding Liverpool?

I have asked quite few friends and they dont recommend me to go into that area at all (high crime rates).

I really appreciate any idea and concerns in this matter.

Or even can suggest any other good place to have consideration?

Thank You for all the help

Regards,
Purple

 

[see_change]

I'd class Liverpool in with many of the other outer Western Sydney suburbs. Even if it does become the " Third City " in sydney ( I assume that Parra is the second ) it still doesn't mean that property prices will move up relative to other places in Sydney ( Which is what I think you're asking ). It's well out west , and geographically has nothing remarkable about it. ( I worked there many years ago ).

In previous cycles outer Sydney areas have moved well after the cycle has started moving centrally , and I see no reason why next cycle will be any different. If you could find a place which is cash flow positive ( you'll need a return of over 10 % for that ) I'd think about it , but if it's negatively geared I wouldn't be buying there at this stage.

See Change

 

[suburbangirl]

I agree wholeheartedy with see_change.

Also, crime wise, I think there are pockets of Liverpool that are worse than others, but if it were me, I'd give it a miss.

I've had my eye on Parramatta for some time; I do think it's valid to call it the second centre of city - it has good local business, great shopping, nice cafe strip, and pulls in a more 'gentrified' shall we say demographic than does Liverpool (generally speaking!!!).

But then that's just my opinion and perhaps a biased one at that as I grew up in Parramatta!

Do your research and go with what feels right for you!

 

[geoffw]

See_change knows what he's talking about. He has worked out west for a long time, so knows the demographics well.

 

[muney]

Liverpool is a horrible place..i hate it..too many unit blocks going up everywhere and they dont look anything flash..theyre creating more of a ghetto then anything else..parramatta is a much better place to invest in my opinion..nice cafe strips and the shopping centre is first class..

 

[skater]

I have asked quite few friends and they dont recommend me to go into that area at all (high crime rates).

Seech is right on, as usual, however, when looking at any investment please do your own research & never take advice from well meaning family & friends as you will find that those who are most vocal about the negatives of any investment are usually the ones with the least knowledge. Come here & talk to the many seasoned investors & you will get lessons on what works (& what doesn't) from those that have actually walked the walk. Good luck.

 

[see_change]

when looking at any investment please do your own research & never take advice from well meaning family & friends as you will find that those who are most vocal about the negatives of any investment are usually the ones with the least knowledge. Come here & talk to the many seasoned investors & you will get lessons on what works (& what doesn't) from those that have actually walked the walk. Good luck.

This is spot on ( though I'd include local investors as well as they often tend to get biases about an area ) . When we were thinking about investing in Brisbane we were put off on Redcliffe as being "Deadcliffe" by several long term Brisbane residents. Turned out it would have been a great place to invest in at the time we were thinking about it.

I'd have no problems investing in Liverpool per see ( though I'd probably use Blacktown - Penrith area for the same purpose as I know it better ) , but it would probably be a short term investment ( 2-4 years ) designed to pick up the bulk of the capital growth in the next cycle.

See Change

 

[tonyc00]

Parramatta 10%+

Hi

I would say that a CF+ in Liverpool would be a good investment.

In a choice between Liverpool and Parramatta then Parra would win on several counts, including scenic factors.

In terms of future growth a recent Residex report stated that Parra was forecast for 10%+ pa for the next 5 years. Liverpool was forecast at 6% or less pa for the next 5 years.

On that (comparative, and independant) basis, go with Parramatta. And if Parra is too expensive then check out Harris Park.

Tony

 

[Grego]

Hi

I would say that a CF+ in Liverpool would be a good investment.

In a choice between Liverpool and Parramatta then Parra would win on several counts, including scenic factors.

In terms of future growth a recent Residex report stated that Parra was forecast for 10%+ pa for the next 5 years. Liverpool was forecast at 6% or less pa for the next 5 years.

On that (comparative, and independant) basis, go with Parramatta. And if Parra is too expensive then check out Harris Park.

Tony

I agree that parramatta would probably be a little more "attractive" to invest in. However I know there are forumites making good money on their investments in places like Tregear, Mount Druitt etc and I'm pretty sure Liverpool has never been on the nose as much as those places. Liverpool has good access to the CBD via the M5 and will always IMO have good CG even if it is only from the flow on from other better liked surrounding areas

Greg

 

[see_change]

However I know there are forumites making good money on their investments in places like Tregear, Mount Druitt etc
Greg

Wrong tense , They've made good money in the past.
ok, generalisation and excluding people doing reno's etc but over the last couple of years prices have gone backwards. Unless you were buying a skater special two years ago bottom of market would have probably been around 240 , now some are selling under 200 ( from what I've heard ) and lots are sitting on the market with no interest. I know several people trying to sell their houses and they are only getting low balled.

See Change

 

[skater]

Unless you were buying a skater special two years ago bottom of market would have probably been around 240 , now some are selling under 200 ( from what I've heard ) and lots are sitting on the market with no interest. I know several people trying to sell their houses and they are only getting low balled.

There are a HUGE amount selling for under 200 ATM. But, there are also a few buyers agents working the area & they are the ones (with a couple of experienced investors added into the mix) purchasing at the low end. That would be why most people are getting low balled. Your average first home owner or first time investor (not affiliated with the buyers agents) is spending on average around 220.

 

[alexlee]

Not just Liverpool, but given the media barrage about how much the West, North West and South West suburbs have fallen, wouldn't everyone be lowballing? The negative sentiment will drive out the 'me too' investors, and the people who know what they're doing will play on the negative sentiment and lowball. Isn't that what we would do?

I've always thought ANY suburb can be a good buy at the right price. While Liverpool might not have as good growth prospects as suburbs closer to the city, if the price is low enough.........
Alex

 

[see_change]

There are a HUGE amount selling for under 200 ATM. But, there are also a few buyers agents working the area & they are the ones (with a couple of experienced investors added into the mix) purchasing at the low end. That would be why most people are getting low balled. Your average first home owner or first time investor (not affiliated with the buyers agents) is spending on average around 220.

Skater , following on from that , what's the lowest you've seen a " reasonable " house going for in the area. I havn't been following the market closely , though a few patients are trying to sell and having problems . I've looked at a couple of agents windows and there seems to be a hugh discrepancy between what they have as asking and what's actually happening.

So far no one I know is highly motivated , but I'm sure it's not far away.

See Change

 

[skater]

Skater , following on from that , what's the lowest you've seen a " reasonable " house going for in the area.

Seech, I haven't been following as closely as previously as I'm full ATM, however I know of 2 well known buyers agents that regularly lowball at around the $180k mark. There was also one house that I saw auctioned that was bought for $165k. It didn't need much money spent on it, just a repaint. It was no thrills, but has come up lovely. The other (admittedly not that many) auctions that I have followed are coming in at around the $170 - 180k price for something in reasonable condition.

There was also a B&T duplex that backs onto Luxford, near your office. I believe 4 beds & very large inside & only a few years old. Sold at auction a few months back for $154 or $156k (can't remember which). Owner has tidied it up & put back on the market for $240k.

 

[see_change]

There was also a B&T duplex that backs onto Luxford, near your office. I believe 4 beds & very large inside & only a few years old. Sold at auction a few months back for $154 or $156k (can't remember which). Owner has tidied it up & put back on the market for $240k.

Dodgy area that ......

Having seen the previous cycle with a bottom around 60-70 , I see double that as the target range at which stage I'd be thinking of buying.

Will be interested to see what they get for that....

See Change

 

[skater]

Dodgy area that ......

Having seen the previous cycle with a bottom around 60-70 , I see double that as the target range at which stage I'd be thinking of buying.

Will be interested to see what they get for that....

See Change

You're right, that is a dodgy area, but I think they will get a good price for it.

I don't think we will go as low as you are anticipating. There are a LOT of investors involved with these 2 buyers agents, so even though they are lowballing they are still buying. They have regular meetings & this area is promoted heavily. If they weren't around, then yes, I think prices would go quite low.

 

[see_change]

It really comes down to how long the downturn lasts . At current prices , even at 180 k purchase , the properties won't be cash positive so you relying on capital growth , so you have to pay to hold.

How long will people keep buying if prices go down or sideways . 2 years , five years , 10 years ?

Are there buyers agents doing the same thing in all of the lower western Sydney areas. There's a lot of them . If prices go down in one area for the lack of targetted buying , people will rapidly change areas.

Previous peak in 88-89 ? around 100 K . The places were selling for 60- 70k in the late 90's - 2000 , not 1991-92.

See Change

 

[Ebbie]

On that (comparative, and independant) basis, go with Parramatta. And if Parra is too expensive then check out Harris Park.

Is Harris Park similar to Granville in price and demographics?

 

[skater]

Are there buyers agents doing the same thing in all of the lower western Sydney areas. There's a lot of them . If prices go down in one area for the lack of targetted buying , people will rapidly change areas.

Previous peak in 88-89 ? around 100 K . The places were selling for 60- 70k in the late 90's - 2000 , not 1991-92.

See Change

The largest one (Chat Club) has meetings at an RSL & I went to one of their meetings out of curiousity. They have a rather large room full of people each week. They promote this area quite heavily. I believe that without them in the market, then prices would have come back quite a bit more than they have.

I bought my first IP in Campbelltown in 1996 for $90500. It was worth around $100k at the time. At the same time the prices out here were similar to your example ie 60-70K. Compare to today, that IP is worth around $230k & the median around here is $200k. Based on that one example you can see that this area is either A) Overvalued now, or B) Was undervalued then. Which leads me to believe that as long as these Buyers Agents are actively promoting the area it won't drop back too much further.

Of course, I could be completely wrong. I frequently am. But, like you, I will be waiting a while before buying anything else.

 

[see_change]

The largest one (Chat Club) has meetings at an RSL & I went to one of their meetings out of curiousity. They have a rather large room full of people each week. They promote this area quite heavily. I believe that without them in the market, then prices would have come back quite a bit more than they have.

I bought my first IP in Campbelltown in 1996 for $90500. It was worth around $100k at the time. At the same time the prices out here were similar to your example ie 60-70K. Compare to today, that IP is worth around $230k & the median around here is $200k. Based on that one example you can see that this area is either A) Overvalued now, or B) Was undervalued then. Which leads me to believe that as long as these Buyers Agents are actively promoting the area it won't drop back too much further.

Of course, I could be completely wrong. I frequently am. But, like you, I will be waiting a while before buying anything else.

Interesting to know that . There was a post a year or two ago about a group who meet in an RSL club ? closer to parra . Might have had a slogan about " follow me " . Is that them ? Was also going to check them out but never went.

It's interesting to follow that sort of thing and know what's happening.
The reality is that noone knows how long it will be til the next cycle starts. We may even find if there are large active groups targeting lower price areas , that they move earlier in the cycle. Or else if it's a long wait , and people get frustrated with a lack of progress , they may find that a decreased participation could pull the rug out of the area....

It may be that the better ops come in smaller pockets which arn't being targeted by buyers agents.

See Change