Low-end housing to go down by up to 10%

A much safer/easier approach is to buy as often or whenever you can afford to buy and be in it for the long term. You need to only buy when the numbers stack up (This bit is important as it would help even if you did not time the entry in the market correctly). This strategy has been tested/proven and the risks can be managed.

Cheers,
Oracle.

that's the excuse i will use if the prices go up instead of down during next half a year and I have to buy at increased prices compared to now :D
 
I'll tell you what....lets agree to disagree....and come back to this topic in another 5 years. The time will reveal all....

I hope you are not suggesting that it makes a difference over 5 year period whether I'll buy now or in 6 months? ;)

Because that would be contradicting to everything you said in your posts :p
 
Okay...enlightening me whith what you think is going to happen?

Also....what is your claim to fame .....have you made squillions of dollars on "bottled" water or something!!!

I am not trying to be funny....just wondering if I am talking to someone who has achieved some investment wealth along the way....so what properties have you invested in previously...pertinent question because this is a property investment site.

I am not trying to swat you away....but want to get your background...




I hope you are not suggesting that it makes a difference over 5 year period whether I'll buy now or in 6 months? ;)

Because that would be contradicting to everything you said in your posts :p
 
Evan, does this qualify?
May 06 property listed 165000 bought 135000 cash, unconditional sale. upon settlement took it to a lender to secure a LOC, bank value 155000 which equals a 14.8%increase on purchase price. Most houses in the area (and I know because I own a few of them) were selling around the 160k mark at the time.
 
where did my reply go:eek:
must've forgot to submit at work:mad:

anyway, summarised version:

sash look at first page, this is where i said what i think will happen within next half a year

i don't have any "claim to fame", i'm merely expressing my prognosis for the future 6 months

i think this thread has deviated from initial topic into eternal discussion of timing the market vs buying when numbers stack up
 
How about this:

The market value of a property is what the next person is willing to pay and can afford to pay.

This means that it is possible to buy under or over market value.
 
How about this:

The 'market value' of a property is the price it could be expected to realise if it was sold on the open market on a particular date, by a willing but not anxious seller, to a willing but not anxious buyer, in an arm's length transaction.

And before we get bogged down by possible interpretations of 'market value', the definition I am using is the legal one referred to as the "willing buyer willing seller theory" as determined by the High Court of Australia in "Spencer Vs The Commonwealth".

On that basis then, a proposed sale would be well under market value if the vendors are anxious sellers, just as a proposed sale could be above market value if the buyer is an anxious buyer.
 
Either way, it has been very proven that it is possible to buy a property outside market value unlike the 'whatever you pay is it's value' theory.
 
Hi, my 2 cents worth.

1998 - agent said "it's worth what a buyer is willing to pay"

I was that cross I wanted to retort: "I offer 50 thousand for your house. Does that mean that that is its value?"

In hindsight, we should have put the price UP, to allow for the 6% discount.

End result : I bought the house everyone loved for 235K, when in 1980, it cost 239500 new.

It opened my eyes to 'value' & I bought the next one at asking price 175K [3 months after the 1st] A friend who could do renos said he'd only pay 160K

Up till today, he hasn't bought a single IP

My IP1 rented for $300 pw; IP 2 $230 pw

Rental yield & replacement cost are serious considerations when we try to 'value' something.

KY

P/S Since I last sold in 04, no other house in that street IP1 had come up for sale. Now I understand what 'tightly held' means!
 
Hi again, adding on to Joanmc's example.

In 06, I paid 223000 for a house & the bank valued it at $225000 before the settlement. So it IS possible to buy below market value.

It was a comedy of errors. I offered $246000 after 2nd open. Accepted. Manager & surveyor both said sub-division not possible. I cancelled.

2 weeks later, I was looking at something else when I noticed that the price was 229000. Agent said anything over 220 would be considered.

In hindsight, $246000 [I'd carefully worked the numbers] was the correct value.

It took me just over a year to get the DA and I onsold it 3 days short of 2 years for $345000

KY
 
Got another one. Figures are close but not exact.

My latest ip had a price being thrown around of $350,000 to $380,000 compared to similar properties.
I offered around $260,000
Ended up geting it for very low $300,000

A tradesman i run into ended up being one of the other bidders and regrets missing it after having a good look. Offered me More to let it go.

So are we saying the market value was very high then dropped then rose again all in the space of about 3 weeks.

I would say it was listed at well above market value.
My first offer was well below market.
My accepted offer was a little below market value.
 
I have a few houses in the Caboolture/ Morayfield area. I remember 06 was a pretty slow time up there and you might just have pulled a bargain. It does happen.

BTW: That's cheap. Was it in Weightown?

QUOTE=joanmc;566698]Evan, does this qualify?
May 06 property listed 165000 bought 135000 cash, unconditional sale. upon settlement took it to a lender to secure a LOC, bank value 155000 which equals a 14.8%increase on purchase price. Most houses in the area (and I know because I own a few of them) were selling around the 160k mark at the time.[/QUOTE]
 
LOL!!! sure is! we started there and it has been very good to us over the last 9 years. Have to have good insurance though:D
 
Aint that the truth. You need good insurance in the whole area tho. I could have bought stacks of 'em in Weightown for circa $80k-$90k and 10% yield around the same time but looked at the area and decided not to.

Went for 3 bedder low sets in Morayfield /Caboolture. Bought 5 in one weekend
in 2001 @ 106% LVR % with about 9% yield. That was a fun weekend. Now they are about 40% LVR. :)

LOL!!! sure is! we started there and it has been very good to us over the last 9 years. Have to have good insurance though:D
 
our first one was 65k and we got 120 pw rent. now they are around 230-250k and 230-250 pw rent. wanna know the best bit? it got rezoned a few years ago and if you get 3 in a row you can put units on 4 storeys high! just like monopoly!
 
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