Michael Yardney's says don't buy in the western suburbs

Michael Yardney has retorted Bernard Salt declaring buying in the western suburbs of Melbourne is a bad idea. Specifically he is disagreeing with Salt's assessment of Meldon and Wyndham as good areas to invest due to affordability. Whilst I agree that inner ring suburbs provide the greatest capital growth I have achieved excellent returns buying in the western suburbs (in Sydney not Melb). Other factors other than capital growth must be considered and I think Yardney neglects these. Factors such as good yields (good rents with good tax deductions), the ability to buy new stock at affordable prices, new stock being easier to rent out (usually) and so on. If you can't afford to buy inner ring but you can in the western suburbs then wouldn't it be better to get into the property market to start with in the affordable suburbs?
If due diligence is done I see no reason why carefully selected properties with high rental demand, good tax return and in good location won't be beneficial to an investor.

Any thoughts?
 
Hi Doozer

Naturally "experts" like Metropole wouldn't advocate buying in the outer ring suburbs- they are part of the old "buy as close to the city as possible" brigade, bringing out the old chestnut that such suburbs boast superior capital growth. It's a myth that's been disproven time and time again. You might want to also consider that Metropole have a Buyers Agency arm that only recommends buying in the inner ring so they may not be the right people to seek opinion about investing in the western suburbs regardless.

Just one example off the top of my head- houses in Parramatta vs Cremorne have had nearly identical cg over the last decade (Source: Residex) of approx 7.4%.

You also make a salient point about affordability and cashflow. As much as many investors would like to get into a suburb that is closer to the cbd they are limited by budget; the often superior net yields on sub $500K properties makes investment at this end more attractive to one's hip pocket. When you also consider that many such investments have benefited from equal (or in some cases even superior) cg than other so-called "blue ribbon" suburbs it makes financial sense to conduct one's research a little further west :D
 
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Spot on Jacque. Beware those commentators who have vested interests in giving their opinions. Trusted sources are those that offer their thoughts backed by research and have no vested interests ie aren't selling anything. Although I've disagreed with Salt in the past I agree with him on this matter and find those who continually spruik inner ring suburbs as the "only" place to invest as being overly narrow and blind to the opportunities that western suburb areas provide.
 
Michael Yardney...................If due diligence is done I see no reason why carefully selected properties with high rental demand, good tax return and in good location won't be beneficial to an investor.

Any thoughts?

Stick to your guns. Do what works for you and your pockets and your risk profile and expectations. Listen and read widely but only make your own decisions based on what YOU want from your investments, not necessarily what someone else has to sell with their own barrow to push. I have respect for MY, but do not agree with everything he has to say. I have a mix of demographics and locations for my IP's. I started my journey 25 years ago in the back yard that MY plays........Bayside Melbourne. They have served me well for growth, however to be honest I wish I had bought more in areas like Broadmeadows and Frankston over the last 4-5 years.

Jacque's post has it spot on.
 
He could have vested interests but we should not forget that there is a lot of vacant land towards the west and on the south side towards Geelong.

Plenty of cheap housing could become available and this could affect growth.
 
Stick to your guns. Do what works for you and your pockets and your risk profile and expectations. Listen and read widely but only make your own decisions based on what YOU want from your investments

I agree with you Player. Listen & read widely, then make your own decision based on your own needs.

There is no one investment strategy that works well for everyone. What works well for one person, won’t necessarily work for others.

It depends on your investment objectives, financial capacity, timing, risk profile, exit strategy, value add intentions & a whole raft of other items.

Philip
 
I have always been confused by that whole Capital Growth vs rental yield argument.

Sure 10% of 600,000 is $60,000
and 10% of $300,000 is $30,000

and 6 is higher than 3. But 10% is 10%.....

two 300,000 houses will have a higher affordability to a pooper (me :( )investor than one 600,000 and then the growth will be the same.

Just gotta deal with 2 slummier tenants rather than one better off one.

Anyhoo.
 
Hi

I haven't posted here for a long, long time, but as I was lurking, and saw you discussing my article so thought I would explain a little more...

Firstly thanks for reading my articles and your ongoing commentary about them.

I accept that there are many ways to make money out of property. I have found one that works for me and I’m happy to share it with those who are prepared to listen

By the way… I have no vested interests as Metropole have no properties to sell. Yes we are property strategists and buyers agents. And yes we make money by helping our clients acquire top performing properties.

But my comments are not based on whims or emotions, but strong fundamental research. As we have access to every property on the market if I thought that I or our clients could make more money in the more affordable suburbs, that’s where we would buy.

So why not invest in the cheaper suburbs?

If you agree that we are entering a rising interest rate environment, then the lower socio economic suburbs and the new housing estates and regional Australia are all areas that will be more sensitive to rising interest rates.

Think about it… in these areas wages will go up with the CPI. People here will have less disposable income.

On the other hand, in the more affluent suburbs, people tend to have more disposable income and their wages will go up more because they have shares, super, dividends bonuses etc.

I know people don’t like hearing it, but the rich keep getting richer.

By the way I don’t disagree with Bernard Salt. I know there is huge growth in these areas – physical growth and population growth – but not necessarily capital growth which is driven by disposable income and affordability.

I hope this explains my reasoning and thanks for the ongoing commentary about my articles.
 
I have always been confused by that whole Capital Growth vs rental yield argument.

Sure 10% of 600,000 is $60,000
and 10% of $300,000 is $30,000

and 6 is higher than 3. But 10% is 10%.....

two 300,000 houses will have a higher affordability to a pooper (me :( )investor than one 600,000 and then the growth will be the same.

Just gotta deal with 2 slummier tenants rather than one better off one.

Anyhoo.

I found a great article that explains the capital growth vs cash flow argument. You can read it here.
 
Hi

I haven't posted here for a long, long time, but as I was lurking, and saw you discussing my article so thought I would explain a little more...

Firstly thanks for reading my articles and your ongoing commentary about them.

I accept that there are many ways to make money out of property. I have found one that works for me and I’m happy to share it with those who are prepared to listen

By the way… I have no vested interests as Metropole have no properties to sell. Yes we are property strategists and buyers agents.

Michael, I'm not sure how correct it is to assume that being a buyers agents necessarily guarantees neutrality.

Finding a good deal on a property that meets certain needs needs heaps of research, talking and running around, regardless of whether it's in a $300k or a $1m suburb.

Though houses may be 10 times dearer in Brighton than Melton, petrol and BA's $/hour fee aren't ten times cheaper in Melton. Indeed the street layouts of new suburbs may actually require more driving. BAs have fixed costs that are incurred no matter the area.

Then there's the value they might add. A customer with a $1m budget will regard a $5 or $10k BA fee as small change and good value, whereas one buying a $300k home won't. It's proportionately easier to save several times one's BA fees by getting a $1m house for $950k than a $200k unit for $190k.

And proportionately more houses in the posher suburbs sell at auction, whereas in outer suburbs private sales with asking prices predominate (a lot of people are not confident about auctions - and a BA could add value here). And by definition the dollar gain of good negotiating 5% off (another possible benefit of using a BA) is greater in a dearer suburb than it is in a cheap area.

I will put it to you then that a buyers agent can add more value for the customer buying in a dearer area than they can in a cheaper area (especially where many houses are similar with advertised prices). And working in a dear area is more rewarding for the agent since they can charge more in dollar terms and more easily cover their fixed costs, yet still deliver value such as terms or price favourable for the buyer.

So buyers agents will often specialise in higher-value areas, and as they know these markets well their focus will narrow until they know less and less about opportunities elsewhere.

There is nothing wrong with professional BAs choosing to deal in areas which obtains them most profit. But it is not necessarily true that the best areas for BAs to practice in necessarily coincide with those that provide the highest overall returns for their investor clients.

Being a BA can give one a good knowledge of a particular area but in my view it is wrong to pretend that they are unbiased.

But my comments are not based on whims or emotions, but strong fundamental research.

Even if research showed that in the past dear suburbs grew faster than cheap suburbs, and you have faith this pattern will continue, relative underperformance of cheaper suburbs in no way precludes the cheaper-suburb investor from obtaining above-average returns.

I would much rather 5% pa capital growth on a $1m portfolio of cheaper properties that costs almost nothing to hold than 7% pa on a $500k unit in a 'better' area that has significant holding costs. And due to better serviceabilty the owner of the former has higher chance of getting a loan to buy more, pushing their wealth even further ahead (total return being a complex interplay between capital growth, yield, costs and financing, balancing all this against risk).

I can see there'd be cases where cheaper properties/suburbs aren't very lucrative for BAs, but they'd be reasonable choices for some investors.

Which means that BAs and investors aren't necessarily going to be favouring the same areas, no matter how suitable they might be to the investor.

Again this underlies the previous point that BAs may be knowledgeable (and useful for clients who lack the time to do the work themselves) but they most certainly cannot claim to be objective.

And despite claims to the contrary BAs (and any profession for that matter) they also have vested interests (or, to put it more kindly, prejudices and biases).

Those who do not see this can get burnt, or at least risk making investment decisions that are not the best for their circumstances.

One does not need even to engage a BA to be susceptible to this; even ABC radio callers and listeners are regularly susceptible to bias dressed up as fact by high-profile BAs with an exaggerated sense of their objectivity.
 
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Thanks for the link Michael. I am a long time subscriber to your newsletter :)

By the example shown I can easily see that the high capital growth suburbs in the example outperform the high yield suburb.

It's like the compounding riddle of being given $100,000,000 now or $1 doubled everyday for 30 days.


However, where I remain skeptical is that this division exists. Definitely, over time a higher priced property will have gained more in $ terms over a 20 year period, but will it have gained as much more in % terms as the example seeks to show?

If this were true then the division between inner suburbs and outer suburbs in melbourne will be extreme in 20 years time, and must also therefore have been a lot closer in years past, and I'm not talking in $ terms, in % terms. Ratio.

To highlight this, I suppose a simple chart showing the average median price of a few selected inner ring suburbs vs their % value against some more affordable suburbs over a 50 year or so timeline.

I would expect to see a line which has some rise and fall - Booms affect the inner suburbs first giving a rise in the % difference but as the ripple effect catches up, it's the outer suburbs that will perform better and close the % gap. Also in down times it's more likely the higher priced suburbs will suffer a decrease (credit availability) and the affordable suburbs may still rise slightly to the lower the % gap again, but overall I expect to see a % difference now not excessively dissimilar to 50 years ago.....

A graph can prove this either way I suppose.
 
As others have already said, .. Michael Yardney has a vested interest in promoting inner city property which is fine, but I'm aware of that when I read his articles, but don't let that sway you from looking at outer suburbs as a viable investment strategy for yourself.

A few of us here on SS have been invested in Melton for a few years now and although we are constantly reminded that due to excess land releases and available land we would struggle with capital growth. In most cases this is a fair argument, but with Melton this has not been the case.

Most of us who have invested in the outer western suburbs have had very good capital growth over the past few years and in which time many new housing estates have opened up in the area.

Invest where you are comfortable at an amount that is affordable for you. Do your DD and stack the odds in your favour where possible. As far as Melbourne West suburbs such as Melton, ..... the area keeps proving the skeptics wrong, but it is ultimately your decision.

Good luck

Mystery ....:)
 
Think about it… in these areas wages will go up with the CPI. People here will have less disposable income.

On the other hand, in the more affluent suburbs, people tend to have more disposable income and their wages will go up more because they have shares, super, dividends bonuses etc.

I know people don’t like hearing it, but the rich keep getting richer.

Michael

Rising interest rates affect all people with loans and more so those on bigger loans eg in richer suburbs.

Last time we had high interest rates we saw property prices falling in the outer suburbs because many people there who were on questionable income and shouldn't have got a loan in the first place defaulted on their loans.

But we saw big price falls in the expensive suburbs as well
because there people had even bigger loans.
So high interest rates affect everyone and most suburbs, including the suburbs where you do your developments.

The timing could be different but they'll all go up and down following each property cycle.
 
Michael the growing but lower socio economic areas like Melton have an advantage over affluent areas in my mind. That is the fight to own property closed to good facilities and new transport infrastructure as the area quickly expands, and that the influence of government decissions is greater over a shorter period of time in lower SE areas.

Also is there an issue with the data which you use to prove that affluent suburbs outperform other suburbs? Perhaps it doesn't take into account that the affluence of areas changes. Take Collingwood for example, it was once supremely working class which wouldn't have pointed to it outperforming Brighton. Although you may look at Collingwood and say it is not as working class, at what point would you say it will outperform Brighton?

The fact that yields are very low in affluent areas tells us that the area outperformed other areas in the past. And that it became affluent. It doesn't tell us that it will outperform in the future, or that other areas will not also gain in affluence. To make those observations we'd need to look at the influences on changes in affluence of an area, there would be many but the main one in my mind is government policy.


Below are five year returns + yields for Brighton vs Melton vs Collingwood according to...

http://www.investsmart.com.au/property/search.asp?Suburb=melton&VIC=1&Houses=1&OrderBy=6
http://www.myrp.com.au/showProductDetail.do?reportTypeId=1&propertyId


Brighton Return 54.3%, Yield 14.2%, Total 68.5%
Melton Return 45.8%, Yield 30%, Total 75.8%
Collingwood Return 77%, Yield 21%, Total 98%
 
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But my comments are not based on whims or emotions, but strong fundamental research.
As far as Sydney is concerned your research is weak, and there's plenty history and resales to back me up.

A good deal is a good deal is a good deal. Period.
Suburb/location is irrelevant. What counts is what the buyer (or seller) knows about the specific location.

Only those who base their assumptions on statistical average and median values can make such generic statements, including the "cashflow vs growth" argument.
It was way back in the early 90s that I worked out 4 IPs out west was better than one apartment or townhouse in a beach area or coastal city.
Those 4 IPs would most likely allow duplex/granny flats and separation of loans.
Result being after 15 yrs you would end up with a very low LVR, or 6-7 IPs.
And that's on a low income with plain IPs, buy hold & pray.
Anyone pushing hard and with reasonable income would have 6-7 and financed at least another 3-4 with the CGs for a total portfolio of >2.5m after 7 years of minimal growth, and a better yield than blue chip.
There a more millionaires in the SW than on the North Shore, that's where the wannabees go. Plenty of W & SW developers bought in the flash suburbs only after making their $$ out west.
N.B. I do not use medians or averages, though they would make my case look even better, because they are wrong.

I know people don’t like hearing it, but the rich keep getting richer.
True, but the rest keep renting.
 
This appears a very emotive topic.

I must make the point that I have much respect for Michael Yardney and others like him. However, I remember...and really not so long ago...attending one of Michaels free property information nights here in Sydney. After listening to some very knowledgeable people, including Michael, talking about well located blue chip property far far out of my reach I came away so disappointed thinking I would never obtain financial freedom for myself or my family.

Fast forward to now and after taking the time to educate myself I finally realised that everyone's journey is different. I simply cannot afford these blue chip products being championed by some (yet)...and that's fine...but I did realise that by identifying a strategy or plan and by sticking to that plan, no matter what!...you can achieve what you set out to do...I bet just like a lot of you on this forum.

I do have an investment out West Sydney which I purchased mid 07 and guess what....2009 10% growth....2010 10% growth...happy days! And the rental yield is pushing up because of demand.

There is no doubt Michael Yardney is knowledgeable, I read his commentary regularly and put a lot of stock in what he has to say, but for me...well I'm doing ok out west...it fits in with my strategy and leveraging me into more good debt.

JT




Baby steps IMHO.
 
It's been so long since I posted here I forgot how emotive topics like this can be.

Let me say I recognize there are many ways to invest and different strategies suit different people - their stage along their investment journey and their cash flow situation.

Having said that I'm sure the regular members here know that 90% of all investors never get past their 2nd investment property and recent research from Michael Matusik shows that 25% of investors sell their property within 1 year and 50% sell within 5 years.

So what I have written about for 10 years now is different from what most others say - and I don't apologize for it. You are welcome to disagree

However I would rather own a 1 bedroom apartment in a high growth area than a house and land package in an outer suburb with poorer growth.

The suburbs we have been recommending in Sydney and Melbourne for the last 18 months have averaged over 15% growth per anum - many 20%. Obviously you can't just buy any property or anywhere.

I only recommend "investment grade" properties.

While Melton may be a great place to bring up your family - to me it's not an investment grade area. The demographics of these suburbs are not what I look for when selecting an area to invest -there is not a wide demographic group of tenants and there is no scarcity of supply - lots of homes all very similar.

Your money will run out before your opportunities will - buy in the best areas you can afford - even if it is only a 1 bedroom apartment
 
Hi Michael, look everyone here respects you quite a bit. So I hope you don't mind me making these observations.

You say you "recognize there are many ways to invest and different strategies suit different people". Yet you contradict that recognition several times in your post. For example "Your money will run out before your opportunities will - buy in the best areas you can afford - even if it is only a 1 bedroom apartment "

We should recognise that there a many very successful investors right here on this forum who've built much of their wealth by buying property in less affluent areas. Perhaps we also need to recognise the real plight of the "One Hit Wonders". Many PIs only ever buy one property because they allow themselves to become stuck in a heavily negatively geared position.

You talk about "Investment Grade" areas as though the point is not arguable. What's not arguable about successful investors is that they manage their cashflow. Capital gains are just the bonus you get for good cashflow management.
 
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. What's not arguable about successful investors is that they manage their cashflow. Capital gains are just the bonus you get for good cashflow management.

.toe

I agree that cash flow management is critical, but to say capital gains is a bonus is, in my opinion, the wrong way around.

Cash flow will never make you rich or wealthy. A substantial asset base will.

The rich build their assets, while the average Australian builds their cash flow.

The recent Merryl Lynch Capgemini Wealth report showed there are only 173,000 high net worth individuals in Australia - that is people who owned their home and had $1million or more in investable income.

They said nothing about cash flow in assessing wealth and neither has any other report I have read. Yes you need cash flow, it is critical but the rich are obsessed with building their asset base and I guess that's where I am coming from.

Cash flow does not make you rich - assets do

The wealthy leverage off their asset base - that is the big advantage they have over the average Australian that's why they keep getting richer.

I also accept that in the early stages of one's investment life most of us have difficulty owning high growth properties, which means a blend of CF and growth is required, but at some stage almost every CF+ve investor I have spoken to wants to move up and buy growth properties.

I would suggest most could have done so earlier - their mindset held them back.

By the way...

If you know anything about me, you'll realize that I recognize there is much, much more to being wealthy than money, but as we are talking property I'm confining my arguments to money here

And thanks for the courtesy of the polite nature of your reply - it's OK for us to disagree. ;)
 
I agree that cash flow management is critical, but to say capital gains is a bonus is, in my opinion, the wrong way around.
OK, I agree with this too.
The big $$ comes from CG, I just dont agree with what most call "quality RE" oe "investment grade".

That you cant get it from the outskirts is a wrong assumption, and there's plenty proof even recently.
Anyone could've bought in the SW for 150-170k a few yrs ago what now sell for >220k and allows a duplex.
Smaller price using a larger deposit gives more equity and cashflow, and easier to get building finance when needed.
Once built a new duplex near cbd is ~300k, giving a total value of around 600k giving a compound CG growth of >20% for the last 7 yrs in a receding market. Even if the loan would be 480k the lvr is 80%.
It's a matter of knowing your market insideout, which will not happen by reading RE mags and median & average data and values.
 
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