Bill:
In those statistics from the valuer-general, Apollo Bay sticks out like a sore thumb at 17.8% pa. Yet to me it proves the line Lies, damm lies and statistics.
In 1998 you could buy an old holiday house fibro/weatherboard on a large block of land in the Pascoe st, Moore st, Montrose Ave area, just behind the shops and not far from the beach for ~$67k.
Yes, I know, I'm familiar with AB, used to live there. Agree.
I know this because I passed up the opportunity at the time (where is the bang head on wall smilie??). By 2002-3 these same properties were ~$300k. There were lots of them for sale at the time, it was the median type dwelling then.
Never mind, that's what we can do. I did the same thing.
Now the median type dwelling is totally different. The land content is minimal with a nice new apartment/unit/townhouse. Buying any of these in 2003-4 will have shown very little growth between then and now, yet the statistics tend to indicate you would do very well.
Actually it was the unit/apartment growth P/A...averaged out from median prices of units/apartment-ALL sales data. I'll go back and clarify that growth pertaining to units/apartments. That's the drill, we could obtain all the sales from 20 years ago, every little bit of property that was sold, (I would love to do that btw, but it would be sheer personal gratification), then get the total list of sales now, compare the addresses, match it all up and no doubt, even with all the ooooh's and aaarh's of everything with stats, the nitty gritty detail, it would still show us if you had any property in AB you would have done just fine and dandy 20 years later. Even if you accidently burnt the house down and had stuff all insurance.
And remember Bill, from 2003/4 that's not particularly longterm, my decade is not even longterm, but a damn sight better than quarterly changes.
The house growth P/A averaged out over the decade for AB was 12%.
Units/apartments 17%...for the decade. 98-08.
The averaged out growth for AB for the decade 94-2005 was 11.4%, I don't have units or apartments tho'.
History can show us, the best way it can, property increases in value over time, some folks have a perception that inner city dwellings/property is the 'best' and most 'serious' option if you are 'serious' about property investing, I say the averaged growth per annum for most properties, regardless of wherever-(not talking one horse towns- no) is not that vastly different. Although keep in mind one horse towns have property shortages too, some folks go from small town to small town buying older places, doing them up and on selling for a years wages profit...know how to drive a paintbrush?
OF COURSE everyone has a 'single story or two or three' to tell with their property observations, I say, BEWARE the single storys, the single observations.
The Danger of The Single Story:
http://www.ted.com/talks/chimamanda_adichie_the_danger_of_a_single_story.html
In 1985 for the WHOLE of Colac Shire, there were 328 sales, (2008: 329 sales), median house price was: $42,250 mean price: $46,882...(2008 $220,000 mn: $272,934).
For units/apartments 1985, 31 sales: median-$55,800 mn: $53,522....(2008, 59 sales, median: $250,000 mn: $314,965)
As much as someone can pick a single story or two or three, and as much as we keep in mind the importance of interpretating data, the averaged growth P/A is still a useful factor to compare over longterm. That MUST go hand in hand with due dilgence on the ground and as I've said before and again, "Buying Well" is important, "The Deal" is important.
But for someone to insinuate regional investing is a poor cousin (no nobody has actually done that
I'm just preempting here) to inner city investing is uneducated.
There would be a lot of people that drop by this forum, novices who maybe impressionable about the type and way they 'think' they might need to go about investing and (as said before) there are many ways.
Regional Investing is also one of them and you need not think that investing in regional vic means checking your brain at the door re/ growth.
That's a fallacy. A myth.
Regional Investing offers a great threesome, when you do your due dilgence:
1.
Growth longterm as comparable to much of the muchness of city investing when it all comes out in the wash...keeping in mind the water factor places, eg Port Fairy's, the Apollo Bays etc are "special"
2.
Rental Returns are strong IF you do your homework, if you can present your property 'well'.
3. What I have experienced, what other numerous investors have experienced is that
well presented IP's in regional areas are in demand.
Then there are the sweet kicker things like what's your IRR on the investment? How much HAVE you kicked in on the sucker, how much are you out of pocket there?
There is a wholistic approach to property investing, that's why Jan Somer's Story by Story is so vital, you get to hear and read of so many different ways...investing, serious big buck accumulation does not stop at the outskirts of Sunshine. What you do with that asset base is up to you, there are numerous ways to take that base and turn it into magic $$$$, we have the people here sharing that journey, their options they then took...ie commercials/industrials/businesses.
You are only ever limited by the processes between your ears, Glial cells. Invest in your Glial Cells.
Longterm growth P/A stats are useful for but a small comparison in the much, MUCH grander scheme of things.
