More evidence that this market has tanked
- Thread starter pieman
- Start date
I coulda/shoulda bet the farm in the stockmarket a few months ago too. But I didn't.
Practically all of my favourites have at least doubled. I doubled my money on one last week alone.
So am I not entitled to be singing the praises of the share market? This is a property forum so I won't but it would be no less meaningful than this thread.
Practically all of my favourites have at least doubled. I doubled my money on one last week alone.
So am I not entitled to be singing the praises of the share market? This is a property forum so I won't but it would be no less meaningful than this thread.
I don't see myself as either of them. Infact I could'nt care less.
I just have my opinion based on my experienced.
I been posting for a while now that medians & expert commentators ain't important.
What's the point of saying "I cudda bought that for XX and now it's XXXX"?
I cudda bought 50 IPs for 100k in the early 90's now worth 250k
I cudda bought same 50 IPs 2002 now worth less than the price paid.
I cudda bought Westpac shares early 90's (when Packer did) for $2 a share.
I cudda bought a few top stocks in the late 80's instead of IPs.
blah blah blah.
While I'm certainly a keen student of history, the wudda cudda game is frivolous & useless. And generally played by spectators.
I just have my opinion based on my experienced.
I been posting for a while now that medians & expert commentators ain't important.
What's the point of saying "I cudda bought that for XX and now it's XXXX"?
I cudda bought 50 IPs for 100k in the early 90's now worth 250k
I cudda bought same 50 IPs 2002 now worth less than the price paid.
I cudda bought Westpac shares early 90's (when Packer did) for $2 a share.
I cudda bought a few top stocks in the late 80's instead of IPs.
blah blah blah.
While I'm certainly a keen student of history, the wudda cudda game is frivolous & useless. And generally played by spectators.
In our little neck of the woods, we had an interesting scenario unfold when my mum put up a house for sale recently (higher than $500K so not really FHB territory).
Listed Wednesday evening, first inspection Thursday. That inspection lead to first contract Saturday after first OFI. Seven groups at the OFI but only got onto re.com that morning and was not in the paper (three neighbours, four genuine lookers).
Mum wanting more than offer, which she countersigned. Agent had another impromptu OFI Sunday 5pm, another five groups through and another contract that night. Mum held off counter signing the second offer because during the presentation, another interested party called wanting to inspect next day.
This third contender put a substantially higher offer in, which mum agreed to. Two more days until contact becomes unconditional, or they pull their finance clause. Meanwhile agent held two more OFI in case the buyer pulled the building and/or pest and which enabled a back up contract to be found (which didn't happen).
There is rather an interesting story about the building/pest inspection, which I will detail, but not until it is unconditional. Some of those "pesties" are indeed well named
.
What was interesting is the amount of interest and groups through the OFI. Plenty of people cashed up and ready to buy, according to agent. People being very picky about what they will buy and sitting ready.
Same agent said that in over 15 years in the industry, she has NEVER been through a time quite like the present.
Another agent who did an appraisal said that people with houses worth low $400K are listing them for $480K (and selling them to FHB). Obviously they are possibly going to people in a panic and who don't really know their values (this was before the FHB extension was announced).
Anyway, fingers crossed it goes unconditional in two days, otherwise we have to try to get another offer.
At the same time, mum's rental sits empty with NO lookers Saturday morning. It is similarly priced for similar houses in the area, but just deserted streets and tumble weeds waiting for someone, ANYONE to have a look.
Listed Wednesday evening, first inspection Thursday. That inspection lead to first contract Saturday after first OFI. Seven groups at the OFI but only got onto re.com that morning and was not in the paper (three neighbours, four genuine lookers).
Mum wanting more than offer, which she countersigned. Agent had another impromptu OFI Sunday 5pm, another five groups through and another contract that night. Mum held off counter signing the second offer because during the presentation, another interested party called wanting to inspect next day.
This third contender put a substantially higher offer in, which mum agreed to. Two more days until contact becomes unconditional, or they pull their finance clause. Meanwhile agent held two more OFI in case the buyer pulled the building and/or pest and which enabled a back up contract to be found (which didn't happen).
There is rather an interesting story about the building/pest inspection, which I will detail, but not until it is unconditional. Some of those "pesties" are indeed well named
.What was interesting is the amount of interest and groups through the OFI. Plenty of people cashed up and ready to buy, according to agent. People being very picky about what they will buy and sitting ready.
Same agent said that in over 15 years in the industry, she has NEVER been through a time quite like the present.
Another agent who did an appraisal said that people with houses worth low $400K are listing them for $480K (and selling them to FHB). Obviously they are possibly going to people in a panic and who don't really know their values (this was before the FHB extension was announced).
Anyway, fingers crossed it goes unconditional in two days, otherwise we have to try to get another offer.
At the same time, mum's rental sits empty with NO lookers Saturday morning. It is similarly priced for similar houses in the area, but just deserted streets and tumble weeds waiting for someone, ANYONE to have a look
.
Actually SF, you are quite within your rights to crow - about the opportunities that exist in the market, despite the current sentiment.
It's never ever been the case that "the whole market is a tank"
But you and I know that is always the case with either property or shares - hence the D&G'ers get slammed when they trot out that statement.
Yes the last 3 months has been pretty good, piled in 3 months ago in Oz & EU markets. Bought a load of Barclays bank for only 75p (sold at 240, now 280). market may turn down again soon though, more opportunity ? real estate still doesn't appeal again yet despite the anecdotes.. still waiting..
After seeing an empty block with 3 bidders going for 1.7+
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...t=&header=&cc=&c=72362713&s=vic&tm=1245487441
Im calling the >1.2m market in bayside back to peak levels of 2007 - 08.
and this
http://www.realestateview.com.au/1371441
with 3 bidders on a very busy road for near 1.2 is definately a result from the "old" days.
Went to a couple of others and there was multiple bidders at all.
Dont know how long it will last but its definately on the move.
pieman
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...t=&header=&cc=&c=72362713&s=vic&tm=1245487441
Im calling the >1.2m market in bayside back to peak levels of 2007 - 08.
and this
http://www.realestateview.com.au/1371441
with 3 bidders on a very busy road for near 1.2 is definately a result from the "old" days.
Went to a couple of others and there was multiple bidders at all.
Dont know how long it will last but its definately on the move.
pieman
I'm definitely seeing the signs of recovery up here in NOrth QLD. Early signs, but they are definitely there...
I have been doing the same lately. We are looking at buying a prop around Kew/ Balwyn. Just within the last 12 weeks the market would have gone up around 8%-10% in those suburbs. 5 prop that were auctioned and we were interested in (Kew east, Balwyn and North Balwyn) went between $100k - $250k above the reserve. One in templestowe went $350k above the reserve.
Same for Brighton/ Brighton East, St Kilda. I have no doubt that the market at the top end in melb is recovering and moving quite considerably.
I can draw parallels to 2007 (early 2007) onwards when anyone attending the auctions would have witness a steep increase in value in those suburbs within months.
The buyers are back in the market with a shortage of supply - Conditions that create the upward march in values.
Having said all that, there is some negative commentary about the macro economic indicators and hence I am not sure if this rally could be sustained.
My opinion is that considering that 2007 saw the highest ever (historical high) increase in values in prestige belt of melbourne, that another sprint in the values cannot be possible/ sustainable that early. The signs and activity on the ground however tell a different story.
I would have thought that the medium- outer belt would witness higher activity and a more steeper rise in values compared to inner ones. The outer suburbs missed the 2007 historical gains albeit with some exceptions.
Had it been a purely investing decision, we would have waited to see a solid trend established over 6 months, but considering its a PPOR we are looking at, some of that caution has gone out the window and we are keen to get something quickly.
Another few months of this level of activity would confirm the trend.
Harris
Same for Brighton/ Brighton East, St Kilda. I have no doubt that the market at the top end in melb is recovering and moving quite considerably.
I can draw parallels to 2007 (early 2007) onwards when anyone attending the auctions would have witness a steep increase in value in those suburbs within months.
The buyers are back in the market with a shortage of supply - Conditions that create the upward march in values.
Having said all that, there is some negative commentary about the macro economic indicators and hence I am not sure if this rally could be sustained.
My opinion is that considering that 2007 saw the highest ever (historical high) increase in values in prestige belt of melbourne, that another sprint in the values cannot be possible/ sustainable that early. The signs and activity on the ground however tell a different story.
I would have thought that the medium- outer belt would witness higher activity and a more steeper rise in values compared to inner ones. The outer suburbs missed the 2007 historical gains albeit with some exceptions.
Had it been a purely investing decision, we would have waited to see a solid trend established over 6 months, but considering its a PPOR we are looking at, some of that caution has gone out the window and we are keen to get something quickly.
Another few months of this level of activity would confirm the trend.
Harris
That's interesting that you see it this way as well. I made the following response to another thread, drawing parallels to the Melbourne 2007 market.
Know the areas you mention quite well, as have lived there previously and family has lived for over 30 years. Can see the activity warming up as you mention although I know of a few recent examples of property's being sold still well below their 2007 prices (12-15%). I suspect they were not quite forced sales, but were not of their own choice all other things being equal. You wouldn't take a $100k+ hit without some cause.
Good luck with the PPOR hunt
(Melbourne's) Property market on the up and up
http://business.theage.com.au/business/property-market-on-the-up-and-up-20090620-cryg.html
Cheers - Gordon
http://business.theage.com.au/business/property-market-on-the-up-and-up-20090620-cryg.html
Cheers - Gordon
Another 2 weekends at the auctions witnessing almost every property (sold) fetching much higher values than the reserve price and fiercely competitive bidding.
Templestowe, Doncaster, Kew, Hawthorn, Balwyn, Brighton are the suburbs that I have been following and with each new property coming to the market, a swarm of buyers can be seen at the open for inspections.
3-4 months ago, the vendors/ agents for 50% of properties going to auction in those suburbs were willing to negotiate on pre-auction offers. Currently, 1 in 10 vendors/ agents will even consider discussing 'offers' before auction.
Such is the interest level combined with 86% and 87% clearance rates and fresh record values for properties coming to the market, it is very evident to witness the changing nature of the market.
I have no trouble in making the statement that in the past 90 days, prices have gone up almost 10% in majority of those suburbs. The data that will be out around Aug will confirm that.
Is it a short term blip or a more sustainable trend with the rising values..? I am not sure at this stage however if the auction clearance rates stay above 80%, interest rates stay around historical lows and no significant and sudden job losses happen, then this blip will form the shape of a trend for the rest of the year.
Currently the interest rates are expected to hold at current levels (for the next 3-6 months), auction clearance rates do not appear to be receding or even plateauing and certainly there is no immediate & short term commentary of jobless rate sky-rocketing in months, then there does not appear to be any impetus that will slow the rising values.
Demand is the biggest driver of rising values. Demand is at its peak (similar to early 2007 levels).
Very interesting indeed...
Harris
Templestowe, Doncaster, Kew, Hawthorn, Balwyn, Brighton are the suburbs that I have been following and with each new property coming to the market, a swarm of buyers can be seen at the open for inspections.
3-4 months ago, the vendors/ agents for 50% of properties going to auction in those suburbs were willing to negotiate on pre-auction offers. Currently, 1 in 10 vendors/ agents will even consider discussing 'offers' before auction.
Such is the interest level combined with 86% and 87% clearance rates and fresh record values for properties coming to the market, it is very evident to witness the changing nature of the market.
I have no trouble in making the statement that in the past 90 days, prices have gone up almost 10% in majority of those suburbs. The data that will be out around Aug will confirm that.
Is it a short term blip or a more sustainable trend with the rising values..? I am not sure at this stage however if the auction clearance rates stay above 80%, interest rates stay around historical lows and no significant and sudden job losses happen, then this blip will form the shape of a trend for the rest of the year.
Currently the interest rates are expected to hold at current levels (for the next 3-6 months), auction clearance rates do not appear to be receding or even plateauing and certainly there is no immediate & short term commentary of jobless rate sky-rocketing in months, then there does not appear to be any impetus that will slow the rising values.
Demand is the biggest driver of rising values. Demand is at its peak (similar to early 2007 levels).
Very interesting indeed...
Harris
And some more...
http://business.theage.com.au/business/melbourne-in-housing-recovery-20090630-d3uk.html
"A FIVE-MONTH surge in Melbourne house prices has undone the damage to the property market wrought by the global financial crisis, pushing the median house price to $469,357 and the median unit price to $377,077 — both record highs...."
This article refers to May figures - Month of June has seen the fastest increase so I suspect those figures when released next month/ aug will push the values even higher.
Interestingly majority of the gain has been witnessed in outer melbourne as per the article including Frankston.
Harris
http://business.theage.com.au/business/melbourne-in-housing-recovery-20090630-d3uk.html
"A FIVE-MONTH surge in Melbourne house prices has undone the damage to the property market wrought by the global financial crisis, pushing the median house price to $469,357 and the median unit price to $377,077 — both record highs...."
This article refers to May figures - Month of June has seen the fastest increase so I suspect those figures when released next month/ aug will push the values even higher.
Interestingly majority of the gain has been witnessed in outer melbourne as per the article including Frankston.
Harris
excellent thoughts and very well articulated ... especially love your reference sources, on-ground research and all the supporting information with your detailed reply...!!
Cheers
Harris
Again asdlellel, I think this might be because PER (where you are) is still trending downwards.
Whereas, in both SYD & NTL I am seeing firsthand exactly the same thing as these MEL posters. High clearance rates (boom time clearance rates actually), lots of competition, limited supply, and prices being reached well above reserve.
strange days huh?
I am thinking PER may have bottomed in the 'green shoots' scenario - it's had it's 40% hammering and buyer interest seems to be picking up.
In the 'eye of the storm' scenario, all markets must have a way to fall yet.
Envisaging a boom anywhere at the moment is hard to fathom tho, unless increased affordability and restricted supply is more real than anticipated. Now we just need Gorgon pushed ahead and we could have a country wide property boom! Perth resources, Adelaide uranium, Qld resources, Mel population growth, Sydney restricted supply
I am thinking PER may have bottomed in the 'green shoots' scenario - it's had it's 40% hammering and buyer interest seems to be picking up.
In the 'eye of the storm' scenario, all markets must have a way to fall yet.
Envisaging a boom anywhere at the moment is hard to fathom tho, unless increased affordability and restricted supply is more real than anticipated. Now we just need Gorgon pushed ahead and we could have a country wide property boom! Perth resources, Adelaide uranium, Qld resources, Mel population growth, Sydney restricted supply
Hi All
Thanks for feedback Harris and others.
Over the last couple of months I have been purchasing in Hume, as mentioned in the article it is currently very strong I can verify this.
I am purchasing development sites, I spoke to the Architect yesterday who has confirmed that he can not keep up with demand. There is very little stock that is suitable for development which is pushing prices up. It also helps that the City Council of Hume is pro-development.
I am from Perth I have not purchased for a couple of years now as personally I see better opportunities East and also I do not want to put all my eggs in one basket.
Cheers, MTR
Thanks for feedback Harris and others.
Over the last couple of months I have been purchasing in Hume, as mentioned in the article it is currently very strong I can verify this.
I am purchasing development sites, I spoke to the Architect yesterday who has confirmed that he can not keep up with demand. There is very little stock that is suitable for development which is pushing prices up. It also helps that the City Council of Hume is pro-development.
I am from Perth I have not purchased for a couple of years now as personally I see better opportunities East and also I do not want to put all my eggs in one basket.
Cheers, MTR
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