Mother of all property booms has arrived.

[essence]

List is in fact a bit longer - with some corrections.

1. Clearance rates in Sydney 78% (not 75 as news.com lies) Melborne unfortunately had to deal with fires and did not fare that great

2. Rents up by the largest amount in 20 years.

3. Consumer confidence is at boom levels towards the property. Consumer confidence at recession levels towards anything else. Which means:
a. RBA will cut interest rates to 0%
b. Consumers are ready to use money saved elsewhere to compete for property (smart people for purchases - others- for rents)

4. Shares, gold, cash - suck. There is nowhere to park your money apart from property if you have any.
5. greedy compats returning back to Australia at the rate about 20,000 per month. (Times published 7,000 from UK, I assume twice as much from US). All cashed up, willing to buy
6. Immigration program is still at 300,000 a year. Have to live somewhere, not so cashed up, putting pressure on rents
7. Big buck chasers coming back from WA and QLD
8. Unemployment is well under the level of previous property boom. Companies taking the chance to get rid of dead wood, nothing beyond that
9. Bad commercial debt is mounting and there is no other real alternative for lenders to offset the losses but to increase residential lending
10. Credit is becoming cheaper. Central banks saturated institution with liquidity - not long before markets will be flooded again with cheap money
11. Right stats start to flow into media. Days of D&G based on obsolete data from days of interest rate hikes are over
12. Mortgage repayments in Sydney are down from 30% of income back to 21%. Mortgage stress is in the past. Days of fire sales are well over.
13. Increasing number of RE agents report suffering from shortage of listings
Internet full of listings that are not already available.
14. Fuel and goods become cheaper by the day - money will be used to compete for rents. Same with Gov handouts. Expect 25% increase in 2009
15. Property shortage is severe. Occupancy rates are hovering around 1% almost everywhere. Builders are dropping like flies. This means period of property shortage will last longer than usual

I am already tired, but this list is not exhaustive.

Argument on the D&G side -

1. I want 50% drop because I want cheap property
2. I want 50% drop because I feel miserable and desperate for company

Two more points I forgot to include:

16. Given 10-year property cycle, we are roughly 6 years from 2003 peak. It is simply the time to have another boom

17. Dip in median prices in December demonstrates buyer's frenzy (which is now fact of life) at the lower end of the market - indicator of a property boom in initial stages.

And someone obviously does not like the truth here - what is this business about closing threads that do not suit D&G propaganda ?

Figured that out - this is Mr Hampel closing threads and deleting posts. Sim, I do not remember you being like this. Something terrible must have happened to you mate.

 

[essence]

Two more points I forgot to include:

16. Given 10-year property cycle, we are roughly 6 years from 2003 peak. It is simply the time to have another boom

17. Dip in median prices in December demonstrates buyer's frenzy (which is now fact of life) at the lower end of the market - indicator of a property boom in initial stages.

And someone obviously does not like the truth here - what is this business about closing threads that do not suit D&G propaganda ?

1. Number of Cumberland papers report substantial increase of inquiries for properties under $550K

2.http://www.yourmortgage.com.au/news/2841/default.aspx

A staggering number of aspiring home owners are expected to storm into Sydney's property market over the next few months to take advantage of the government incentives, according to an expert.

3.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=agWGPe2QDTlU&refer=australia

"Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australian home-loan approvals rose in December by the most in almost nine years as government handouts and the biggest round of interest-rate cuts in almost two decades spurred first-home buyers.

The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments increased 6.4 percent to 52,974 from November, the biggest gain since May 2000, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The gain was almost double the 3.5 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. "

4. http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/research/macro/PressReleaseCSI20090211.pdf

“The lower rates have stimulated further interest in housing. The index tracking opinion
about whether now is a good time to buy a house increased by 7.0% in February. This is

the highest level of the Index since December 2001. Recent evidence of increasing

interest in mortgage borrowing particularly amongst first home buyers is consistent with

this observation."

5. It is subscriber only, so Im not sure if the link will direct you to the correct page http://www.rgemonitor.com/344
It is Noriel Roubini, known as Doctor Gllom - who correctly predicted current crisis:

Australian Housing Market: Affordability Crisis is Abating

6. http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24977706-462,00.html

7. http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25015773-14327,00.html

8. http://www.news.com.au/story/0,,24891016-1702,00.html

9. http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24998507-5013110,00.html

10. http://business.smh.com.au/business/record-number-of-poms-moving-to-australia-20090203-7vzb.html

Just food for thought for those who missed previous threads.

 

[Sunfish]

Isn't there a job, funeral or golf game you can go to? The law of diminishing returns suggests to me that your raves will be getting little traction now.

 

[Witzl]

Essense,

Despite the fact that i can kinda read through your crap to see that you do have a few valid points, and i do agree with most of them...

... i am kinda pretty sick of your posting habits, and very tempted to hit the "ignore posts by this user button". Its just total bombardment.

You are forcing your beliefs down peoples throats harder than the spanish forced catholisim on south america.

You're currently at an eleven.
We need you at about a 5.

 

[Sim]

And someone obviously does not like the truth here - what is this business about closing threads that do not suit D&G propaganda ?

Figured that out - this is Mr Hampel closing threads and deleting posts. Sim, I do not remember you being like this. Something terrible must have happened to you mate.

Actually it's the signal-to-noise ratio that's become a problem ... in that it has dropped a bit too far (too much noise, not enough signal). It's not just you - there's a couple of people who fall into this high noise category.

I've been closing threads which have become pointless bickering. I've been deleting posts which have taken innocent threads way off topic. I've been responding to complaints from other members about these threads. It's time to get back to talking about investing in real estate - not about who has the prettiest graphs or the most "authoritative" statistics.

Witzl kind of summed it up nicely I think.

 

[BayView]

Dear essence,

in this year - 2009, there will be;

NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM.

(well, maybe just a tiny little one we hope).

 

[essence]

Essense,

Despite the fact that i can kinda read through your crap to see that you do have a few valid points, and i do agree with most of them...

... i am kinda pretty sick of your posting habits, and very tempted to hit the "ignore posts by this user button". Its just total bombardment.

You are forcing your beliefs down peoples throats harder than the spanish forced catholisim on south america.

You're currently at an eleven.
We need you at about a 5.

If you would prefer D&G propaganda to continue to prevail on that forum - it is your personal preference. If you think that you can learn more from people who indulge themselves in their own misery - you quiet entitled to learn from them. If you think it is allright for D&G vampires on this forum to poison minds of innocent people - it is up to you. If you think it is allright for Sim to delete my posts and close my threads so they get buried - whatever.

Just ask yourself few questions- did you see me to make a statement that does not have factual basis under it?
-did you see me calling names here (I hope you noticed how many times I was subjected to this). Sim - be the witness - did you get any complaints from me?
- did you see me commenting on somebody's personality? I hope you are able to differentiate commenting on personality from criticism of what people are doing.

Then answer one simple question - to me. How the hell you are going to improve if nobody criticises what you are doing? Without criticism you would get mentally dead. You would be asleep at the wheel.

And frankly, I do not get it - D&G vampies allowed to do on this forum whatever they like and as long as they like. In a true spirit of free exchange of opinions am getting hissed at all the time.

Certainly - it is to the common advantage to call somebody "**** sock puppet", "fiscal pygmy", comment on my cahones, on 20 cents I carry in a back pocket.

Good on you.

 

[essence]

Actually it's the signal-to-noise ratio that's become a problem ... in that it has dropped a bit too far (too much noise, not enough signal). It's not just you - there's a couple of people who fall into this high noise category.

I've been closing threads which have become pointless bickering. I've been deleting posts which have taken innocent threads way off topic. I've been responding to complaints from other members about these threads. It's time to get back to talking about investing in real estate - not about who has the prettiest graphs or the most "authoritative" statistics.

Witzl kind of summed it up nicely I think.

So what you are saying that some people who have run out of any rational argument and have neither guts nor facts to continue discussion resorting to complaints.
And I am not talking about property.

What is it if not capitulation?

 

[essence]

Dear essence,

in this year - 2009, there will be;

NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM,
NO BOOM

(well, maybe just a tiny little one we hope).

Sim - this one must be extremely civilised, profoundly underpinned by facts,
and grown-up like.

Cherish members with this level of intelligence and decency.

 

[BayView]

Sim - this one must be extremely civilised, profoundly underpinned by facts,
and grown-up like.

Cherish members with this level of intelligence and decency.

Hey; don't call me decent or intelligent, thanks!

Don't forget my sarcastic sense of humour, knack for taking threads off topic, and little factual content on most occasions.

 

[essence]

Don't forget the sarcastic sense of humour, knack for taking threads off topic, blatant horrible attempts at humour, and little factual content on most occasions.

Why you are inviting me to cane you? Want to run to Sim for protection?

 

[essence]

Isn't there a job, funeral or golf game you can go to? The law of diminishing returns suggests to me that your raves will be getting little traction now.

I am on funeral - of D&G vampires of this forum.

I know that Law of diminishing returns:
"Fail to recognise upturn in assets value and you returns will diminish" - quiet simple.

 

[Sim]

If you would prefer D&G propaganda to continue to prevail on that forum

Actually I prefer that people talk about investing.