North West Growth Centre

I'm looking around at what areas to invest in within Sydney. I've made a map of the North West Growth Centre, with the medians of surrounding suburbs marked down. Hopefully this map is useful to other forum members. I may think about doing a map of the South West Growth Centre as well in the next couple of days.. we'll see how this thread goes.

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/6214/northwestgrowthcentrewi.png

northwestgrowthcentrewi.png


The North West Growth Centre will house 70,000 new dwellings - of course this will not happen over night but is planned over the next 30-40 years (IIRC).

In my opinion the Growth Centre (increased population, significant infrastructural improvements etc) will obviously have a nice effect on prices in surrounding areas such as Willmot, Shalvey, Blackett, Dean Park etc.

It's interesting to see that 500sqm blocks of land in Kellyville Ridge, The Ponds etc are selling for $350k or more. Surely this shows that suburbs such as Shalvey, Blacket, Willmot etc etc will have some great growth in the coming years.

Something I noticed is this:-
Willmot had awful growth over the past 8-9 years, while the neighbouring suburb Shalvey has had significantly better growth. I don't know these areas too well (yet) but judging by the fact that there are more fire damaged houses in Willmot than unscathed properties, that Willmot is a very bad area and this is the reason for the bad growth?

The yields in this area is great, as is the potential for renos in many of the homes I've seen for sale. This is fantastic, but a bit pointless without a positive outlook for capital growth in the future.

This begs a question:
Will ***** areas always be *****? With infrastructure coming up very close to these areas, I would anticipate this would boost land values in these areas. I assume this would lead new developments to flow over into these suburbs once the new Growth Centre is full (or even before that once people see good value land) and eventually push rents up so high that the lower socio-economic crowd that currently inhabits the area would move on to somewhere cheaper..

What are your thoughts on this?

Any other thoughts?

Bibliography!
Median Prices gathered here - the median prices in brackets are where the median prices given by this site are significantly lower than the median prices over the last 12 months on RPData. The numbers in brackets are based on RPData medians which I think are more accurate. (I have an RPData membership).

Growth Centre Info here
 
My question is, if there is tonnes of land to be released surrounding 2770 in future, why would people want to move into Willmot/Shalvey etc when there are new estate releases around it without the public housing dillemma.

House and land prices go up due to demand, new land release drops demand in surrounds as people on decent incomes buy new house and land packages, freeing up housing stock in current areas for others to upgrade into.

Rents in 2770 cant keep going up forever - there is only so much blood you can get out a finite amount of low income net salary. It is relatively easy to manufacture CG there, but its a slow game to wait for market CG.
 
Thanks for your response Dave,

See my replies below. PS I dont claim to be an expert - you're much more experienced and knowledgeable than I.. I'm just wanting to throw a few ideas at you to spark a good discussion ;)

My question is, if there is tonnes of land to be released surrounding 2770 in future, why would people want to move into Willmot/Shalvey etc when there are new estate releases around it without the public housing dillemma.

Significant price differences/bigger blocks, I suppose?

$700/sqm for land in Kellyville Ridge.. The first block I looked at on RE.com.au in Willmot is $235/sqm for a 593 block (with fire damaged house). Sure, Kellyville Ridge is a great area, and Willmot is... well, Willmot. But surely Willmot won't stay at that price while areas such as Kellyville Ridge keep going up... Can it?? :confused:


Looking at the map, let's say hypothetically that Shanes Park (directly above Willmot) blocks sell for just $500/sqm in 5 years time... This rate would of course be expected to be higher than this, and then continue to increase from there.. Do you think Willmot would remain at $250-300/sqm despite this happening right next door??


House and land prices go up due to demand, new land release drops demand in surrounds as people on decent incomes buy new house and land packages, freeing up housing stock in current areas for others to upgrade into.

I agree that new land release drops demand - but the plan is to release this land over the next 30-40 years in line with the demand. However, this means some of it may not be developed for 50-70 years (you can't force people to sell, people have the right to keep using the land for existing purposes for as long as they want to). So I guess this means the new areas will only be sold off in line with demand... Right?

Rents in 2770 cant keep going up forever - there is only so much blood you can get out a finite amount of low income net salary. It is relatively easy to manufacture CG there, but its a slow game to wait for market CG.

I agree with you there.. I suppose there always has to be somewhere affordable for the government... err I mean the lower socioeconomic group.. to rent. Perhaps though they'll rent units instead of houses on massive blocks of land.. Surely this is an undercapitalisation of valuable land (especially with so much going on around it, and with increasing housing prices in the city slowly forcing people out west)?

Again, thanks for your reply. I look forward to seeing your thoughts on the points I've put forward :)

Cheers :D
 
I would argue the prices have already grown and will stay this way for a while....until at least more desirable inner city suburbs move considerably
 
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