Now is the time to buy

Who's saying that?


True.. a much better approach is buy high and sell low :rolleyes:

But buying low (but still high relative to past gross yield and affordability) and seeing the market falling while neg gearing does not make investing sense. Buy when the market is trending up, not down.

If you can get 8+ gross yield buy in any market. Doesn't matter.
 
If you can get 8+ gross yield buy in any market. Doesn't matter.
If that's the entry point to buying, and the preference is a no frills property within 12km of the cbd, then you'd be waiting for another 35% fall in value for a house, maybe 30% for unit/townhouse.. I'm not waiting for that.
 
Or rents to rise. Or a combination.

What i'm saying if you can easily cover your costs, it doesn't really matter when or where you buy. For some.

If that's the entry point to buying, and the preference is a no frills property within 12km of the cbd, then you'd be waiting for another 35% fall in value for a house, maybe 30% for unit/townhouse.. I'm not waiting for that.
 
evand please try to understand that although I disagree with your approach personally I accept it as a strategy and if it works for you then great. However please accept there are a million approaches to investing in property and making blanket statements that basically state if its not cash positive then its no good is absurd.

There are many people making money consistently doing the opposite of what your stating, I am one of them and I dont put it down to stupid luck.

Regarding your trend is your friend type comments I agree (I do) but this isnt the stock market were a shares value can trend down to 0. The property market works within well defined cycles for the most part and ofcourse the ocasional boom\bust scenario.

Given this when property has fallen for some time e.g. brisbane effectively since 2008 one must ask the in my view stupid question is it "different this time" meaning is it more likely prices will continue to slide down due to some major shift in market dynamics akin to what Steve Keen advocates for example or is it more likely to pick up.

Furthermore you have to remember that as investors you dont simply go out an buy at the median so your profits\losses shouldn be directly correlated in line with the capital growth of that suburb it should be higher.

Given lack of buyer activity etc you could negotiate\find a purchase signficantly below trend which you otherwise couldnt at the first hint the market is improving.

All I am saying is that there are more than one way to skin a cat.

Who's saying that?




But buying low (but still high relative to past gross yield and affordability) and seeing the market falling while neg gearing does not make investing sense. Buy when the market is trending up, not down.

If you can get 8+ gross yield buy in any market. Doesn't matter.
 
Yeah. Investing in falling assets is good and makes plenty of sense:rolleyes:
Maybe you can negatively gear it as well. That way you'll not only have a declining asset, but also be forking out even more money as well. Bonus!!:p You are a financial genius aren't you.

Meanwhile the smart investor is positively geared currently, building up a lot of capital on other things, while the property market corrects, and then pouncing. 7.5yrs to retirement (early!!!) yah. The only thing that annoys be is that I'll have to wait another 25yrs AFTER retirement for the Superannuation dollars :-(. What a rort super is.

back already?

capital in OTHER THINGS? like what?

Bullion? moving into mania phase so not smart.
Property? you'd be contradicting yourself again if you were.
Shares? obviously not with your views on Super.
 
Yes i agree. But what i'm saying is at this stage of the market, the trend is your friend. And the current trend is not your friend.

Especially on the low yields available now.

I'm not talking about development, renos, etc...just buy and hold.

If there is more chance of the market going down than up, and youre neg gearing. Why buy? I've yet to hear a valid answer.

evand please try to understand that although I disagree with your approach personally I accept it as a strategy and if it works for you then great. However please accept there are a million approaches to investing in property and making blanket statements that basically state if its not cash positive then its no good is absurd.

There are many people making money consistently doing the opposite of what your stating, I am one of them and I dont put it down to stupid luck.

Regarding your trend is your friend type comments I agree (I do) but this isnt the stock market were a shares value can trend down to 0. The property market works within well defined cycles for the most part and ofcourse the ocasional boom\bust scenario.

Given this when property has fallen for some time e.g. brisbane effectively since 2008 one must ask the in my view stupid question is it "different this time" meaning is it more likely prices will continue to slide down due to some major shift in market dynamics akin to what Steve Keen advocates for example or is it more likely to pick up.

Furthermore you have to remember that as investors you dont simply go out an buy at the median so your profits\losses shouldn be directly correlated in line with the capital growth of that suburb it should be higher.

Given lack of buyer activity etc you could negotiate\find a purchase signficantly below trend which you otherwise couldnt at the first hint the market is improving.

All I am saying is that there are more than one way to skin a cat.
 
Ill give you some examples;

1. Because you could buy units\townhouses from developers at heavily discounted prices far below the market price.

2. Because you could buy development sites e.g. in Zillmere for argument sake without any approval and rentable house for under $400k with potential for 4x townhouses because few developers\builders are looking.

3. Because you could purchase something pre-sale from a developer and settle 1-2 years from today i.e. take advantage of low(er) prices today.

evand there are literally tons and tons of reasons you would buy you are concentrating solely on the mum and dad investor who are simply buying a a typical home without much thought but even in this example it could make sense.

For instance say they aknowledge its low(er) in price today and organise a purchase of a typical home to sit on it for very long term i.e retirement. A case could be made that at best they bought at the bottom at worst they bought somewhere near the bottom.

The flip side is to wait and buy at a higher price.

My scenarios all exclude armageddon scenarios put forward by some.

All I am trying to say is there are valid points as to why you would buy now. Evand without trying to be difficult surely you agree that the world of property investing is not as defined\clear cut as saying in this market right now there is only 1 way of investing i.e. cash positive this highlights more about your risk tolerance rather than investment strategy thats all.

Yes i agree. But what i'm saying is at this stage of the market, the trend is your friend. And the current trend is not your friend.

Especially on the low yields available now.

I'm not talking about development, renos, etc...just buy and hold.

If there is more chance of the market going down than up, and youre neg gearing. Why buy? I've yet to hear a valid answer.
 
back already?

capital in OTHER THINGS? like what?

Bullion? moving into mania phase so not smart.
Property? you'd be contradicting yourself again if you were.
Shares? obviously not with your views on Super.

I hear the mattress offers a good place to park your capital for a rainy day
 
Oh god this post made me laugh...

Maybe you can negatively gear it as well. That way you'll not only have a declining asset, but also be forking out even more money as well.

Technically you are wrong. Do you think you fork out more money as a result of negative gearing? Regardless of your views this statement you made makes 0 sense you dont ever pay more as a result of negative gearing. Unless you are simply in your convuluted way saying you bought a negative geared asset... really confusing to know what you mean by "Maybe you can negatively gear it as well".

Meanwhile the smart investor is positively geared currently, building up a lot of capital on other things

This makes no sense to me, give me an example. Aside from cash in the bank what produces capital that doesnt involve a loan or buying property given your obvious stance against? Are you suggesting buying shares? are you suggesting buying a business in cash? are you suggesting buying gold? give me a defined example please. To me this means cash in the bank or similar - good luck with that.

while the property market corrects, and then pouncing

Ok this line is the one that cracked me up the most. You are a genius obviously, warren buffet calls you for advice, he rings and says "Bluestorm I need to pick the bottom so I can pounce have we got there yet".

I am literally struggling to write this response from how much I am laughing at how incoherent and misguided your post was.

So lets see, the market corrects, you pick the bottom AND no one else in the world notices i.e. in order for you to still get those cheap prices??? or else ummm you guessed it they will be asking for higher prices and the market has gone from a buyer to a sellers market.

7.5yrs to retirement (early!!!) yah.

I did the calcs and your wrong, its 7.899 years get it right next time. Lol you not only can pick market bottoms you have calculated your retirment down to the exact day. Will it be raining or sunny on that day? Morning or afternoon?

Lol you kill me...




Yeah. Investing in falling assets is good and makes plenty of sense:rolleyes:
Maybe you can negatively gear it as well. That way you'll not only have a declining asset, but also be forking out even more money as well. Bonus!!:p You are a financial genius aren't you.

Meanwhile the smart investor is positively geared currently, building up a lot of capital on other things, while the property market corrects, and then pouncing. 7.5yrs to retirement (early!!!) yah. The only thing that annoys be is that I'll have to wait another 25yrs AFTER retirement for the Superannuation dollars :-(. What a rort super is.
 
Yes, all good points but 99% of property investors just buy a house and rent it out. They are not involved in the world of development, pre sales, off the plan etc.



 
Buy when the market is trending up, not down.

Evand

When the market is trending up it means that mums n dads are out buying so we will have competition.

Best to wait for the market to tank and when it starts to move upwards we catch the full wave by buying in neighbouring suburbs
 
granted, so if we are both talking about mum and dad investors who buy in a suburb "I lived there I know its good" type buyers then yes, they may aswell wait and buy then.

Usually you will find they buy at the top of the market because its this point when the mood is best i.e. all good news, all figures showing +ive news and for the life of them they can never figure out why it seems the market starts to turn the day after they buy.... "just our luck"

Yes, all good points but 99% of property investors just buy a house and rent it out. They are not involved in the world of development, pre sales, off the plan etc.
 
Oh god this post made me laugh...

Technically you are wrong. Do you think you fork out more money as a result of negative gearing? Regardless of your views this statement you made makes 0 sense you dont ever pay more as a result of negative gearing. ...

what are you on. Of course you pay more. you are paying out of pocket money on the difference between rental income and expenses. If this is not offset by capital gains, then you are loosing money on the investment.
 
Some of us are already retired and work out of interest :eek: I can tell you exactly when I retired because that date passed so please dont lecture me on setting goals given you by definition havent reached them yet but good on you for trying.

Nice to see you responded to every point except picking the bottom of the market :p


Day trading mate (as per other threads). Picked up another $4K on a Bluescope bounce yesterday and Billabong today.

More capital for when it is actually a good time to buy property.



what are you on. Of course you pay more. you are paying out of pocket money on the difference between rental income and expenses. If this is not offset by capital gains, then you are loosing money on the investment.



Yeah, Jan 26, 2019 9:00am EST (sunny day). Wife's 40's birthday, we officially retire. Maybe if you set goals and worked toward them, you could also pick your retirement date as well:)
 
2. Because you could buy development sites e.g. in Zillmere for argument sake without any approval and rentable house for under $400k with potential for 4x townhouses because few developers\builders are looking.
Hi Tcocaro,

I just bought my next development site, it settles on Monday. Nothing fancy, just a 430m2 empty block in upmarket Bardon Brisbane for $370K. 4km from the CBD and 500m stroll to Paddington. Originally on the market for $440K, dropped to $380K for quick sale and accepted my offer at $370K. I've got plans being drawn up from a local pole home company with estimate to build a 5 bed, 3 bath, 2 kitchen, DLUG three story split level home for about $300K. I'm going to do it myself as an owner builder and bring it in for under $250K. If I can get it to under $230K then Anna Bligh will even give me $10K for my efforts with her new grant.

Got to love the current market. So a completed brand new home in Bardon for $600K when comparable product is circa $850K or more even in today's market. I'm setting the bottom level up as a stand alone granny flat so I can rent it out separately and live in the top two levels. Give up one bedroom/bathroom/kitchen but get about $15K-$20K a year income from it. We still live in a 4 bed, 2 bath, DLUG job fully paid off.

And THIS while I am still halfway through my big Mona Vale build and servicing that construct with no rental income. The banks are mighty generous at present! We'll move into a van on the new site for 6 months until Mona Vale is finished then kick off the build at Bardon in earnest. Plan is to refinance the Strata'd Mona Vale units at completion to 80% lend thus clearing the LOCs on our former PPOR in Narrabeen. Sell Narrabeen and bring about $800K cash from the sale North to discharge the new $300K loan on the Bardon site and pay cash for the build. The balance left over to sit in the offset account against the Mona Vale 80% loans.

All good. Just demonstrating even more "delayed gratification" by committing to living in a van for 6 months to achieve my goals. It was my wife's idea, not mine... ;)

Might be worth another development thread as this will be an owner builder and should be very interesting.

and the other 1% are found on SS, so stop preaching to us! :rolleyes:

I think we're an over-representative 1% though Lizzie... ;)

Cheers,
Michael
 
I know bardon\paddington and personally like them having looked to develop there a few times. Given you have investigated these markets better than me more recently I wont make any off the cuff comments regarding the feasibility of your project only to remind you to include fees\plans\holding as part of your costings (which I am sure you did and only surmised the details for this post).

However given you are living in the property and having downstairs rented it sounds like a fantastic idea to get perhaps a home you could otherwise not afford to buy completed, or afford comfortably without the added rent.

What I commend most of all is your commitment to living in a trailer on site and having downstairs rented out - many people wont for reasons of ego or fear about what "others may think". I genuinly do commend you, I feel its a rarity these days to find someone (youngish - guessing your my age or thereabouts?) is willing to work anymore or have a "lets get it done" attitude and actually do the work required not just say it.

Personally I have lived in a 1 bedroom budget hotel in Canberra, slept days on end in the car, Commute back and forth from Brisbane to Sydney (staying in Manly), Sydney to Canberra, lived on-site, in the houses we have renovated, tents on site as has my brother in law who works with me. I have a family back at home, a wife who is a soldier by my side taking care of two kids.

This year I have bought 3 sites making the total to 4, finishing 1, mid through another and got all 4 approved. I had settlements totalling 4m+ financed by a major who has been with me from day one.

Stress levels have been high, I dont show it but my body feels like its shredding - for anyone who has a controlled stress they may know what this feels like. Add to this the birth of my 2nd daughter this year giving my mother - my friend enough time to look at her before passing away from cancer.

So when I hear stories of woe or negativity in general on SS or anywhere for that matter I feel like saying stick it, this is life.. fight for what you want, dont waste time on haters and no matter how bad it ever gets keep smiling you only have the one life make the most of it and never ever regret anything.

My wife laughs at me each time I stuff up because I always say, "Oh well its a learning lesson" about 3 times a day :p. many people on this forum and in general have a need to be right (I fall victim of this too) or hate with a passion people who succeed doing the opposite of what they preach and cannot wait to see them fall in order to get a sense of self-vindication of their views\choices.

If you and me fall and that makes someone else happy, someone who would usually say something like "you will see" type comments on this forum then I pitty them for two reasons. One, if your happiness is linked to the success or failure of someone you dont even know personally then your pathetic and second you will be waiting a long time if youve picked me to fail and cry about it if ever I do.

I dont care about being right or wrong, I make the best decision I can at the time and If its wrong I learn, I adjust and I move on.

So congrats again and good luck with your development! I will definetly blog something about my developments to get the ball rolling it would be good to put into a single post\thread or blog a discussion about peoples actual experiences rather than what SS has become in large part a battle ground over ideology.

Hi Tcocaro,

I just bought my next development site, it settles on Monday. Nothing fancy, just a 430m2 empty block in upmarket Bardon Brisbane for $370K. 4km from the CBD and 500m stroll to Paddington. Originally on the market for $440K, dropped to $380K for quick sale and accepted my offer at $370K. I've got plans being drawn up from a local pole home company with estimate to build a 5 bed, 3 bath, 2 kitchen, DLUG three story split level home for about $300K. I'm going to do it myself as an owner builder and bring it in for under $250K. If I can get it to under $230K then Anna Bligh will even give me $10K for my efforts with her new grant.

Got to love the current market. So a completed brand new home in Bardon for $600K when comparable product is circa $850K or more even in today's market. I'm setting the bottom level up as a stand alone granny flat so I can rent it out separately and live in the top two levels. Give up one bedroom/bathroom/kitchen but get about $15K-$20K a year income from it. We still live in a 4 bed, 2 bath, DLUG job fully paid off.

And THIS while I am still halfway through my big Mona Vale build and servicing that construct with no rental income. The banks are mighty generous at present! We'll move into a van on the new site for 6 months until Mona Vale is finished then kick off the build at Bardon in earnest. Plan is to refinance the Strata'd Mona Vale units at completion to 80% lend thus clearing the LOCs on our former PPOR in Narrabeen. Sell Narrabeen and bring about $800K cash from the sale North to discharge the new $300K loan on the Bardon site and pay cash for the build. The balance left over to sit in the offset account against the Mona Vale 80% loans.

All good. Just demonstrating even more "delayed gratification" by committing to living in a van for 6 months to achieve my goals. It was my wife's idea, not mine... ;)

Might be worth another development thread as this will be an owner builder and should be very interesting.



I think we're an over-representative 1% though Lizzie... ;)

Cheers,
Michael
 
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