Now is the time to buy

Tell the Germans of the Weimar Republic that, being paid by the wheelbarrow load of Reichsmarks. And we've all seen the inflation in currency of Zimbabwe, same again.

Personally I'd rather have metals and precious gems, worst comes to worst at least if I have metal I can make a weapon and rob people :eek::D

In turbulent times, what you want is political power and an army.

Worst comes to worst at least I can blow you up first.

And that's not a silly concept. History has repeatedly demonstrated this to be true.
 
Hard cash is illusory not a true asset!

I have to disagree here. in any 'market', whether it be property, equities etc, it is all 'funny money'. If BHP has 1 billion shares on issue, and the last trade was $40, then BHP is now 'worth' $40bn. If tomorrow, it only sold for $30 per share, it is only 'worth' $30bn. But nothing has changed. A BHP share is still a BHP share, but each shareholder has just 'lost' 25% of their 'value'. So value has been lost. I could transfer one BHP share for $30 and wipe off $10bn of stock market value by myself. Where'd the $10bn go? It never existed...

This just demonstrates that wealth is an illusory concept. The only thing that is 'worth' anything stable is cold, hard cash. Even precious metals like gold or even jewels like diamonds have their 'value' fluctuate in absolute terms each and every day. So don't put too much reliance on what your assets are 'worth' because it's all based on the last sale price.

Yes, all assets flactuate as I pointed out, become undervalued or overvalued but the most easily manipulated, in my opinion, is 'hard cash' as you call it.
I have to disagree, what happened to hard cash in Iceland or Leman brothers, or Zimbabwe, or Belarus recently when their currency was devalued by 30%? I lived in Eastern Europe as a child and saw how inflation changed daily. Imagine your hard cash just loosing 30%, how would you feel?
Why are our banks only guaranteeing $250K in the bank (down from $1m) as of 1/1/12? Look what they did to, was it Swiss frank, when people started to invest into it in Europe?
History shows many such accounts (eg. Weimar Germany as pointed out above, the wheelbarrow was more precious than currency). My point is that there is a difference between currency and money (value of money).
When you truely grasp the difference between both than you'll understand. If I say a cup of coffee costs $100.00 today, then you may say that's expensive, but if I told you that your average earnings are $1billion, then you may think it's not so expansive (it's all relative). It's what that currency represents as a value as the purchasing power to acquire things such as assets. Think about it, is $100 paper note worth $100, the actual paper, well not. It's what it represents, it's the medium of exchange that you can use to purchase something that has value, what we would call an asset.
Two main things that can confiscate our wealth are taxes and inflation (silent tax as I like to call it). Say property rose in value by 5% and you think great, you have gained wealth, but what if inflation rose by 10% at that time (you would be actually worse of by 5%). You see governments, central banks, wall street (the most powerful cartels) use tools that everyday people like us are unaware off. We cannot change the rules but we can outsmart them...
Say your current wages are increasing by 5% but inflation (true inflation since government likes to adjust that index) is 8%, then you're are getting poorer..... There are ways to make people poorer thinking they are getting wealthier....
So all assets (property, shares, commodities, land, oil, etc....) have a mean value and in time they either become overvalued or undervalued or revert back to their mean. When you know how to compare that asset class to its past and you know whether it's undervalued then you can make fortunes as I said before. That's all I meant, it's more to do with economy but well, we can all learn something, I hope...
Look at Elizabeth Taylor's auction of her jewels and clothes I think it was predicted to be worth $50m.....(well, you see gold can be sold for 'hard cash' or 'currency' as I like to call it). When the US dollar was backed by gold then it was worth something, it was real money then, but since 1971 when it's no longer backed by gold or silver it's just paper that its worth can be manipulated with....
I doubt most wealthy keep 'hard cash' in the banks, I would think they hold, stocks, businesses, lands, buildings, paintings, jewellery, diamonds, gold/silver, mines, just to mention few, so let's learn from them a little and apply the same to our lives, what do you think?
 
:confused: I don't know how you thought that I was worrying about the market. I think you must have me confused with another poster.

Sorry Skater, I should have mentioned the original poster, I cannot remember who it was but I think the thread was started by him/her...
Please accept my appologies.....:eek:
 
Thats funny, because Skater was the OP who started the thread:D

With the title " Now is the time to buy" though

Since all the D & G's want to constantly post about the sky falling in and linking D&G media articles, I thought I'd share what I just heard on Today Tonight. I tried to share the link and to add the relevant page, but I think I'm just too quick and it's not showing yet.

For those interested in looking it up, they were talking about The Block at the time and mentioned that now is sure not the time to sell. However, Neil Jenman was mentioning that if you do want to buy property, now is the time to be gearing up and buying. He gave a couple of suburbs in Melb, Syd & Qld too.

For the record, I don't do my research based on what the media has to say about anything, but it is blatantly obvious that there are many that do.
 
I don't watch much local politics, but from the snippets I've seen our current government it looks more like a circus act than those prepared to sensibly run the country and the RBA has diluted the worth of our currency heavily over the past decade, as badly as most other central banks.

The RBA currently has an explicit 2-3% inflation target.

This requires it to devalue the currency.

The goal of positive inflation targeting is currency devaluation.
 
The RBA currently has an explicit 2-3% inflation target.
This requires it to devalue the currency.
The goal of positive inflation targeting is currency devaluation.
The rate of increase in money supply has greatly exceeded the inflation target.
 
The rate of increase in money supply has greatly exceeded the inflation target.

Well, since you know the powers that be have an explicit agreement to devalue the currency, perhaps you should realise that asset values are destined to continue increase in real terms for some time. So maybe you shouldn't have sold your home to rent a few years ago?

By the way, why haven't you changed your sig on Overclockers as you promised to do when you lost the bet with Trojan?

http://forums.overclockers.com.au/showthread.php?t=937357

hobo-jo Thread Starter

Default I was hopelessly wrong on house prices!

So early last year another user (trojan) and I made a bet. The bet was whether house prices would rise or fall in 2010 (eg. close - or + YOY using ABS figures).

The payout on the bet for the loser was to:
- Create a thread admitting they were wrong (which you're reading now)
- Link to thread in signature with wrong on house price wording (adding shortly)
- Avatar of choice from opposition (in place now)
- $100 donation to charity of choice (will post details later this week)

So this is me trojan, admitting I was hopelessly wrong on house prices

Trojan is a member of APF... that's how I know. He says you need to update your sig and stop being a sore loser. :D
 
Well, since you know the powers that be have an explicit agreement to devalue the currency, perhaps you should realise that asset values are destined to continue increase in real terms for some time. So maybe you shouldn't have sold your home to rent a few years ago?

By the way, why haven't you changed your sig on Overclockers as you promised to do when you lost the bet with Trojan?

http://forums.overclockers.com.au/showthread.php?t=937357

Trojan is a member of APF... that's how I know. He says you need to update your sig and stop being a sore loser. :D
Properties values in the suburb I sold are now lower than when I sold and I have saved tens of thousands additional by renting.

re OCAU: I did add a link in my signature and it was later removed by an Admin, but Trojan knows that already. Ask him if he's noticed Gold's performance relative to property recently...

Posted by Trojan on OCAU in April 2010:

For the sake of comparison, lets see how hobo-jo's gold position over the same timeframe (31st Dec 2009 - 31st Dec 2010)

So on 31st Dec gold price was $US1100 per ounce
Today its sitting at $US1159 per ounce
Which is a 5.3% increase - not bad.
Lets see how it does by the end of the year.
 
I have saved tens of thousands additional by renting.
So not even enough to cover the stamp duty if you were to buy back in then?

Not to mention the cost and hassle of moving.

re OCAU: I did add a link in my signature and it was later removed by an Admin, but Trojan knows that already. Ask him
Why don't you ask him yourself on APF? Or maybe you believe he's just another 'troll'? :rolleyes:
 
I'd estimate I'm around $80k minimum better off having sold from the combination of:

- Falling price of the property (which probably has some way to go)
- Saving costs by renting
- Better appreciation in assets I've held with equity that sale proceeds released

I think stamp duty is a little less than that.
 
If you swing it right you don't pay stamp duty.

We paid maybe $80 or so (no, I'm not forgetting any zeros) on a house that'd be worth high $200s, maybe low $300s once we have a garden not just all that mud.

And now I'm finally back in the workforce and finished this breeding gig permanently we're saving a stonking great fortune not renting purely because we work in Sydney and don't need to rent anywhere near we work :D
 
I'd estimate I'm around $80k minimum better off having sold from the combination of:

- Falling price of the property (which probably has some way to go)
- Saving costs by renting
- Better appreciation in assets I've held with equity that sale proceeds released

I think stamp duty is a little less than that.

Hardly seems worth the effort of selling, moving, buying again. Do you plan to time the 'bottom' and buy back in then? You might have missed it. Best time to buy is usually just before or just after interest rates start to fall. If you're quick, you might get in before prices start rising again. Still... it was hardly worth the hassle for the few dollars (if any) you might have saved.
 
Hardly seems worth the effort of selling, moving, buying again. Do you plan to time the 'bottom' and buy back in then? You might have missed it. Best time to buy is usually just before or just after interest rates start to fall. If you're quick, you might get in before prices start rising again. Still... it was hardly worth the hassle for the few dollars (if any) you might have saved.

mate you are looking at it from an incorrect angle.
What about profits made on the funds from selling the house?
If those funds have been profitably deployed, then the total opportunity cost is:

Profits to date on funds extracted from selling house - (Net Movement in value of house (ie after all sell and buy back costs).

If movement in value of house is negative and profits have been made on funds extracted then that will be a double bonus.
 
mate you are looking at it from an incorrect angle.
What about profits made on the funds from selling the house?
If those funds have been profitably deployed, then the total opportunity cost is:

Profits to date on funds extracted from selling house - (Net Movement in value of house (ie after all sell and buy back costs).

If movement in value of house is negative and profits have been made on funds extracted then that will be a double bonus.

Yep, thanks. All together that comes to about $80K (see post 111).

Like I said, would barely cover the stamp duty. Hardly seems worth it.
 
I'd estimate I'm around $80k minimum better off having sold from the combination of:

- Falling price of the property (which probably has some way to go)
- Saving costs by renting
- Better appreciation in assets I've held with equity that sale proceeds released

I think stamp duty is a little less than that.

You sold in Adelaide didn't you? Latest data from the ABS shows that Adelaide house prices are now HIGHER than at any time before December 2009. You sold before December 2009 didn't you? Was your suburb in some sort of decline and decay? Good idea to sell if it was. How much of the $80k is the falling house price?
 
People who worry about small money like this don't make big money...
I don't worry about it. Shadow commented on my position, I was simply responding.

The decision to sell wasn't purely a financial one.

But really, what a sad little comment from a sad little man. Do you really pick up business with your ridiculous comments all over the forum?
 
But really, what a sad little comment from a sad little man. Do you really pick up business with your ridiculous comments all over the forum?

Oh hobo-jo, I could sink to your level but for the sake of this forum I won't. If you have to resort to this then there's more problems with yourself than there is with me.
 
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