Perth C&I bull market to continue

Morning,

I've just returned from a very interesting breakfast conference run by the API and Finsia at the Hyatt Hotel here in Perth.

It was called the Perth Commercial Property Outlook and the theme was something like "Where is the Bull heading".

I seemed to be the only one in the 300 strong crowd not wearing a 3 piece suit.....oh joy....must of been the only one from the industrial sector....

Alannah MacTiernan, the Minister for everything to do with real estate was in attendance. She's quite a lively character when she doesn't have a camera or microphone in her face.

The Colliers International Director of Research presented some fascinating data on what is underlying "the market". He wouldn’t distribute his slide presentation, which was worth gold to me…..might have to get a copy through the back door somehow.

It's extremely tight, and with investors pouring in from over East, competition is getting tough. Prime nett yields have dropped from 9 and 10% down to 6's and 7's. I wish they'd all stay on their side of the paddock.

Anyway, their consensus / forecast is they cannot see any slowing down at all in the CBD / West Perth / industrial sector.....both prime face rents and underlying land values are screaming up, especially in the next 2 years and strong until at least mid-2009.

They all agreed the residential market had peaked already, but thankfully for once, didn't blather on and on about houses and units.

Sat at a table with a partner from a prominent law firm. I'm always amazed at how wealthy these guys look / act / appear, and yet how little wealth they really have. He was mid to late 40's, and still paying off his modest PPoR worth 600K and had no investment property at all. Looks are very deceiving.

Anyway, I'm bouyed by the research and outlook. My private banker who invited me to the function and sitting next to me said at the end "I suppose you'll be knocking on my door soon for more money...".....U betcha !!!!
 
Blimey Dazz - Can't you resist givin the lawyers a serve at every opportunity?- well, my baby boy not only looks rich - he is rich- and is a conscientious, honourable and clever lawyer.
 
I'm always amazed at how wealthy these guys look / act / appear, and yet how little wealth they really have. He was mid to late 40's, and still paying off his modest PPoR worth 600K and had no investment property at all. Looks are very deceiving.

Australia is one of a handfull of countries in the western world where by people can be well dressed & portray themselves as financially wealthy and highly successful individuals when in fact they are really presenting a fallacy to the world by living on credit and increasing their consumer debt.

The name Mrs Bucket` always comes to mind and gives me a little chuckle.:)
 
Blimey Dazz - Can't you resist givin the lawyers a serve at every opportunity?

Mizbuf....umm, was making a general comment, I could have easily listed a few other individuals at my table representing the banking / REA / tourism sectors.....all exhibiting the same attributes. Big hats - no cattle. I mentioned the lawyer 'cos he was sitting to my left. No offence surely taken on your part re: an unknown son ?? Although, I do so relish the chance to goad the wigs occassionally. Brings them back to Earth now and again.


Rixter, absolutely. People spending so much trying to look wealthy that it inhibits their growth to actually be wealthy. I reckon this is the great charade of our time.


To balance the scales, a normally dressed and spoken chap sitting directly opposite me was the owner of 4 hotels / pubs in Perth, and had just returned from a buying trip in Melbourne where he picked up two more hotels. Now he was interesting to talk to. It appeared he was there to impress nobody....didn't need to apparently.


Anyway, just thought I'd mention the conference. To me it was important. I had fun.
 
Mizbuf....umm, was making a general comment, I could have easily listed a few other individuals at my table representing the banking / REA / tourism sectors.....all exhibiting the same attributes. Big hats - no cattle. I mentioned the lawyer 'cos he was sitting to my left.

Huh! so you're both prejudiced against Lawyers AND against those on your left!

;)

Seriously, it sounds like a good event.

I meet lots of suits with no underwear (as I like to call them). They talk well, are in all the correct clubs and committees, drive fancy cars and own nothing of value (not even a high self-esteem).

Fortunately I meet a lot less of them in the ACT than I did in Sydney or Melbourne.

I was at a networking function last night for directors, senior corporates & public servants and only ran into two of the type out of about 20 cards I collected.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
hey dazzle,

do you attend any Property Council of Australia's conference or seminar in perth? My compnay has been asking me to attend these meetings but haven;t got the time and i haven't know many people...
 
kero, don't let not knowing many people stop you from attending these events. I often go to these things where I haven't known a soul. I admit that it can be uncomfortable, especially if you're on the shy side like myself ( i can't go up to a complete stranger and introduce myself out of the blue), but you can end up meeting some interesting people.

these events can provide one with amazing networking and information gathering opportunities.
 
The Colliers International Director of Research presented some fascinating data on what is underlying "the market". He wouldn’t distribute his slide presentation, which was worth gold to me…..might have to get a copy through the back door somehow.

It's extremely tight, and with investors pouring in from over East, competition is getting tough. Prime nett yields have dropped from 9 and 10% down to 6's and 7's. I wish they'd all stay on their side of the paddock.

Anyway, their consensus / forecast is they cannot see any slowing down at all in the CBD / West Perth / industrial sector.....both prime face rents and underlying land values are screaming up, especially in the next 2 years and strong until at least mid-2009.

Well I suppose historically commercial lags residential.....

I'd be interested to hear which fundamentals are driving things, and what the spin is on the slowing US economy, and how that will impact China's growth...
 
I'd be interested to hear which fundamentals are driving things

Unsurprisingly, the resource projects are driving things.

Apparently Perth is only geared up infrastructure-wise for projects totalling ~ 12 Billion in any given timeframe and we have about 20 Billion in the pipeline, with more on the way apparently.

Gorgon and Pluto developments constitute over 16 Bn by themselves.

This has translate to a massive rise in both the need to "house" workers....and in this context I'm talking about where they work, not their housing arrangements, and also their tastes, which apparently have gone upmarket since the last time this sort of market appeared in Perth (early 90's).

The big difference this time is the interest rate / inflation environment and also business confidence.

US economy interacting with China was mentioned, but I took no notice of it. For a little guy like me, doing individual deals and signing up strong tenants for 10 and 15 years at a time is where I make the money. I'm not a big macro-economic guy, simply because I can't buy it. A country's GDP goes up 4%....who cares right, I'm interested in what Dazzling's GDP is doing.

Wages growth was mentioned, apparently it's going through the roof in the sectors that are taking up space....apparently if you want to work for big dollars you can get a job over here.

Nett rentals are up - land is up - competition is tight and elbowing your way into the fray is getting hectic - but still worthwhile.

I'm putting my ebow pads and helmet on, 'cos some of these players play rough.
 
hi dazzling
If I were you I would jot down the projects that are comming up in your paddock and where they are ( I have) and then look at whats there from a housing point of view ( theres nothing) you have still got a far bit of growth to come to your market I think it maybe out of perth thou.
will it continue yes it will.
will china and india slow it down
yes they will once there markets catchs demand.
is that soon
no its not.
would you invest in wa and are you going to.
will save that response
 
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