Perth Market Flooded And No Sales

kinda my point, but you're right.

-4%, +2% .... all piddly figures. you would have the same standard of variation in a healthy market.

your figures are encouraging for what i'm structing and involved with currently.

king brown is a friend of mine and in fact the agent we discussed a couple of days ago sold his place.

so yes, it is a good thing for what we're talking about
 
he means that reiwa considers 14000 to 16000 listings to be a market that is neither under nor over supplied. duing the boom a few years bak i think lisitngs dropped to around 6000. Currently they are about 15,900.

he then makes the point that the figure needs to be revised upwards annually with house formation, as the bigger the market the bigger the liquidity needs to be
 
Actually, REIWA considers 12,000 a balanced market. I can find the reference for their statement if you want.


"A lot more money has been lost waiting for a "bottom" than has been lost buying well valued assets in any market."
- Kent, what is your reference for this statement?
 
Oh and come on, just a little bet, $100 bucks or so? Anyone? Many of you are so sure it has bottomed, it is easy money haha

yawn

you were the guy who always shouted to get attention at school werent you?

if you feel there are no opportunities out there then yes, staying out is a smart move especially consideringt the bad yields.

on the other hand, if someone can make a dollar in the current market then why the hell shouldnt they? it is sheer madness to tell others they are unable to make money at the moment, especially when plenty of people are
 
Oh and come on, just a little bet, $100 bucks or so? Anyone? Many of you are so sure it has bottomed, it is easy money haha

Your barking up the wrong tree chief with this nonsense.

Real estate investors, who predominantly frequent this forum, are generally speaking not gamblers. Most of the people of this forum wouldn't bet $ 2.00 on a scratchie. Trying to bait them with a $ 100 to play your silly game is peurile.

There are people here on the forum with multiple millions of dollars of real estate in Perth....they've already put their money on the line. Your $ 100 baiting is a speck of flydust to them.

Others on the forum have also made a considered decision to sell their holdings in Perth real estate and invest elesewhere as they see fit. They also have intelligently voted with their cheque books.

With both sets of people, your goading to bet $ 100 is uneventful at best.
 
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he means that reiwa considers 14000 to 16000 listings to be a market that is neither under nor over supplied. duing the boom a few years bak i think lisitngs dropped to around 6000. Currently they are about 15,900.

he then makes the point that the figure needs to be revised upwards annually with house formation, as the bigger the market the bigger the liquidity needs to be

Thanks for the explanation.
 
Oh and come on, just a little bet, $100 bucks or so? Anyone? Many of you are so sure it has bottomed, it is easy money haha

dude you wanna slow it up a bit. emailing me for a bet? was that on the back of this?

are you trying to play the futures market against TABcorp? i don't get it.

if you need $100, try here.

pay.jpg
 
just as Dazz said, agents are pumping and dumping vendors to churn ANY comm regardless of price.

i think that vendors just aren't falling for the crap anymore of "we can get you $this$ and then 2 months in we'll suggest you drop the price 20%" and are holding prices - and REA's - to their initial valuation.

stubborn? who cares? stats suggest mortgage stress isn't the issue, so what is?

more and more houses are coming off the market unsold, and ARE NOT coming back on. now that's an interesting series of events right there.

i still say that the lack of lending is an artifical attempt to maintain demand and strangle supply, thereby the supply/demand curve runs into the demand side, thereby increasing the equity balance on the bank's books at the back end.

i think what they didn't count on was EVERYONE trying to sell at the same time.

banks have come back in recent times with new offers to keep people buying, but only to those that meet stricter lending criteria. the funny thing is, the govt policy for responsible lending leaves the criteria up to the banks.

just wait. a lot of folk are gonna get caught by waiting for prices to fall further. just as when selling, the old mantra of "your first offer is generally your best offer", same applies for correction buying - being that "your first chance to buy is generally your best chance to buy".

example. melbourne. if you'd have bought in the last doldrums, you would have paid a little more, but credit was easier to get. now if you want to buy in melb to take advantage of the doldrums again, credit is tighter and your chances of getting a loan to secure a property for the same - or lower - price are greatly reduced.

waiting has actually cost you your window of opportunity - and a scenario you can't plug into your economics calculator.

food for thought.

Thanks heaps for the reply. I'd give you kudos but I need to give it elsewhere first!

In 2008 there is no question that the qty on market turned around quickly. It still took a few months though, but I guess once liquidity returns it is too late to then get a bargain so to speak as agents will find a buyer at only a small discount even for motivated sellers.

Agree with you completely that agents seem to be turning their attention to sellers rather than buyers now to try to find a return back to some degree of liquidity.

Missing out is a little close to my heart at the moment but that opportunity was in NSW and now with the recent announcements first around land release and then around stamp duty, I can accept my tight fisted approach did not pay off at all on that occasion. I was thinking of releasing some koalas there just so I can sleep better at night and not dwell too much on the missed opportunity.



Edit: Before anyone lynches me I am kidding about the Koalas...
 
I'm in the US at the moment, and at every mall I go to I'm seeing 'NOW HIRING' signs on shopfronts. Perhaps the pay being offered is not meeting expectations?

LOL.... perhaps College/School just started a week ago & now they need new part-time workers that live locally...... This happens every summer ;)

BTW, I live in the US & am seeing something very different apparently...

Oh, and minimum wage ranges from $5.15 - $8.25 depending on the state (mainland states)

http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/america.htm

And, would that pay meet your expectations anyway?
 
LOL.... perhaps College/School just started a week ago & now they need new part-time workers that live locally...... This happens every summer ;)

BTW, I live in the US & am seeing something very different apparently...

Oh, and minimum wage ranges from $5.15 - $8.25 depending on the state (mainland states)

http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/america.htm

And, would that pay meet your expectations anyway?

Makes sense. I doubt there would be people lining up to work for peanuts with no tips.
 
My friend has had her property on the market for 5 weeks. She's had 1 really low offer, and showing more people through today. I told her if she's considering accepting their offer, I'll buy it. It's more of a "summer" house so I think she could get more for it as the weather warms up. This house that sold in Ashfield would have to be a record price http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-ashfield-107536264
My friend had another two offers, the highest being 10% more than the lowest. The market mustn't be that bad.
 
Haven't read all the replies, but my story:

- Listed PPoR in January (3/1 townhouse in premium suburb). Sold 8 days later for $20K less than asking, 2 cash offers on table.

- This gave us cash with which to make offers. Feb/ March: found a place ($1m+) in premium suburb, listing 6-8 months old. Listed price had dropped ~$120K in that time.

- 2 buyers offered, we won out. Moved from house A to house B thankfully without need to go into rental.

Moral. Good market to trade-up in... if you can get your place sold first. Cash offers are strong. "Subject to sale" offers likely to go nowhere.

Sam :)
 
LOL.... perhaps College/School just started a week ago & now they need new part-time workers that live locally...... This happens every summer ;)

BTW, I live in the US & am seeing something very different apparently...

Oh, and minimum wage ranges from $5.15 - $8.25 depending on the state (mainland states)

http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/america.htm

And, would that pay meet your expectations anyway?


The thing I can never get though is Australian property investors talking about US low wages yet unable to seemingly take into account that everything is that much cheaper there anyway - isn't it ?
Here our wages sound good but it takes the whole lot and then some just to survive or 7 or 8 x to buy a house , you can't get jack with our wages.
Then they turn around here tickled pink because their getting 4 or 5% on their investment property - wow ! In the states on your measly wage they say you can easily set up 20% and even much better on your properties .

So where's the logic ? What's it matter if the wage is one dollar or 50ph , if you can live in the dollar an hr country better than you can in the 50 .
 
The thing I can never get though is Australian property investors talking about US low wages yet unable to seemingly take into account that everything is that much cheaper there anyway - isn't it ?

I was thinking that too ... many friends have travelled there recently. Massive amounts of food for very little money (should've seen the 4 scoop icecream for $3! can't even buy the cone here for that). Clothes dead cheap. Fuel cheap. Cars cheap. Rental (not holiday) accomodation seems cheap from what I have seen. Public transport cheap. Houses cheap ... all very cheap in comparison to Australian.

Only thing NOT cheap is medical.
 
I was thinking that too ... many friends have travelled there recently. Massive amounts of food for very little money (should've seen the 4 scoop icecream for $3! can't even buy the cone here for that). Clothes dead cheap. Fuel cheap. Cars cheap. Rental (not holiday) accomodation seems cheap from what I have seen. Public transport cheap. Houses cheap ... all very cheap in comparison to Australian.

Only thing NOT cheap is medical.

Ahaaaa!!! You have hit one of the "nails on the head"....

No job = no benefits = no medical insurance (normally)

Generally speaking, middle to upper level professionals earn comparative or better incomes to Australia on a dollar for dollar basis, hence the upper middle class is a loooong way from the rest of society. Ie. minimum wage starts at $5.25 in some states of the US.....

Also, to get a college degree (university) will cost somewhere between 70-100k depending on whether it is a 3 or 4 yr degree program. That is just tuition fees..... for an undergrad!

So you see, the odds are stacked against those trying to get ahead through academic means.... So what about a business then??? Well, this can be a double edged sword, because litigation in the US is huge... Aussies that haven't been to the US for more than a brief holiday, generally don't truly understand this point. Insurance, insurance, insurance..... you MUST have insurance in the US for everything! Even to rent a house you need a liability insurance policy!

I agree that many things in the US are cheaper than in Aust., and in my experience the premium we pay in Aust. is 50-100% on things from appliances, to cars to real estate. One thing to consider though is that scale brings competition.... ~310 Million versus ~22 million..... puts a bit of perspective on things ;)
 
moral: go to the US and set up a business with no insurance, trade it as aggressive as you can and as soon as the first legal letter turns up book a seat on the first qantas out of there
 
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