POP! goes the bubble

[pieman]

I see the precious metal bubble has started to pop.

15% in 3 weeks off its high I believe and silver is off 20% with more to come looking at the futures. Gee I'm glad I didn't buy those gold ingots, that were being spruked for the pending end of the world as the only form of currency.

I might stick to property, seems to withstand most end of the worlds.

 

[redwing]

What's a bear to do?

 

[Sunfish]

I see the precious metal bubble has started to pop.

Believe what you will. Every gold bug I respect has said that high volatility will be the new norm.

If you can't stand the heat, get outa the kitchen. You can hibernate as long as you like, but the world wont wait for you to awake from your slumber.

 

[damien275x]

A bubble is where there is absolute mania and every Tom, Dick, and Harry are scrambling to get in before it's too late. I don't know anyone who is invested in Gold/Silver. I don't know anyone who talks about Gold/Silver. To suggest it's a bubble is a bit ridiculous. The "bubble" burst in April/May also - Silver plunged down 20%. Then it climbed back up. Once a bubble bursts, it usually goes down and never makes new highs again.

 

[hobo-jo]

It's not a bubble (yet).

Gold is only 8% (so far) off it's highs in Australian Dollars... you know the currency we use here in Australia

I'm expecting Silver could head down much lower (low US$20s short term), Gold perhaps down to US$1500... but I'm sure I'll probably be having the last laugh when looking back at this thread in 12 months

 

[Tehanu]

A bubble is where there is absolute mania and every Tom, Dick, and Harry are scrambling to get in before it's too late. I don't know anyone who is invested in Gold/Silver. I don't know anyone who talks about Gold/Silver. To suggest it's a bubble is a bit ridiculous. The "bubble" burst in April/May also - Silver plunged down 20%. Then it climbed back up. Once a bubble bursts, it usually goes down and never makes new highs again.

Untrue - heard of dead cat bounces?

Then again I'm one of the odd ones who think there is both a housing bubble and silver bubble. Which is why I sold my silver earlier this year, sold off my shares and bought USD Not that I have much faith in the USD in the long run, either.

Who says lightning doesn't strike twice I got the GFC too...

I'm sad though that it turns out my family members who I thought I managed to convince to sell their shares in April did not in fact sell Though I am happy I managed to dissuade my work-mates who wanted my advice on silver from buying

 

[Shadow]

It's not a bubble (yet).

Gold is only 8% (so far) off it's highs in Australian Dollars... you know the currency we use here in Australia

Still falling though. You might even say crashing. As is the share market.

Property still doing pretty well in comparison.

Didn't you say property would be the one to crash?

 

[Aaron Sice]

I see the precious metal bubble has started to pop.

15% in 3 weeks off its high I believe and silver is off 20% with more to come looking at the futures. Gee I'm glad I didn't buy those gold ingots, that were being spruked for the pending end of the world as the only form of currency.

I might stick to property, seems to withstand most end of the worlds.

dunno about that.

while it's definitely correcting i would not suggest in any manner that there's either a bubble or if there was, it has popped.

i call the lull before the storm.

 

[pieman]

perhaps, perhaps not
http://www.theage.com.au/business/gold-a-safe-haven-no-more-20110926-1kt81.html

The words "sunk" and "smashed" don't make for great investment appeal.

 

[Sunfish]

In my experience investors should be willing to pile into anything likely to have a "V" shaped recovery.

I will shortly be betting my ex-IP on precious metals. I have never seen anything soooo primed for a quick recovery. I've already had one grab at the falling knife and just have bloody fingers to show for it so I will wait for a confirmed reversal before venturing back. From such a low point there is no need to be a hero and try to pick the absolute bottom.

Beauty is in the eye of the beer holder. (I think!)

 

[rachels]

I remember when gold was selling for the same price as good cigars $300 - $400 an ounce, I wish I had cash back then to invest...

 

[BV]

I will shortly be betting my ex-IP on precious metals

SF
Why do you say this?
Are you expecting a sudden Euro collapse?
If you are, I should note that under such extreme circumstances, investors turn to US treasuries so precious metals and commodities will be falling.

Its hard to know what will happen to Europe but with the Germans playing hard ball and demanding cutbacks (instead of taking measures to reduce interest rates by means of a fiscal union), it is now obvious that recession is going to hit them all very hard.

Soon, even the Germans won't know what hit them because they are a net exporter to the EU and you can't export to countries and consumers who don't have money to buy their goods. The Chinese will inevitably slow down as well. It is not hard to imagine what will happen to the world when 2 continents US+EU are simultaneously in recession and the worst part is that (for different reasons) they won't have the means to get out of it.

 

[pieman]

I remember when gold was selling for the same price as good cigars $300 - $400 an ounce, I wish I had cash back then to invest...

I remember when you could buy a block of 10 deco flats in St kilda in a good street for 800k, plus you got rent and a roof over your head if you needed somewhere to sleep.
2 things gold cant provide, rent and a roof over your head.

 

[Aaron Sice]

I remember when you could buy a block of 10 deco flats in St kilda in a good street for 800k, plus you got rent and a roof over your head if you needed somewhere to sleep.
2 things gold cant provide, rent and a roof over your head.

but when the value of gold surpasses the value of the paper currency it replaces, soon people wont accept your "republican credits" for their wares.

 

[Aaron Sice]

In my experience investors should be willing to pile into anything likely to have a "V" shaped recovery.

I will shortly be betting my ex-IP on precious metals. I have never seen anything soooo primed for a quick recovery. I've already had one grab at the falling knife and just have bloody fingers to show for it so I will wait for a confirmed reversal before venturing back. From such a low point there is no need to be a hero and try to pick the absolute bottom.

Beauty is in the eye of the beer holder. (I think!)

i'm picking up 3kg of the silvery stuff on Friday.

 

[pieman]

but when the value of gold surpasses the value of the paper currency it replaces, soon people wont accept your "republican credits" for their wares.

next you'll be telling me

there are pixies and goblins in your garden
god is real
the CIA set explosives up in the twin towers
man didn't walk on the moon
jfk was not killed by lee harvey oswald

 

[weg]

i'm picking up 3kg of the silvery stuff on Friday.

That's the exact amount I'm picking up by Friday.

Will be more if it drops even further .

 

[StefanA]

I see the precious metal bubble has started to pop.

15% in 3 weeks off its high I believe and silver is off 20% with more to come looking at the futures. Gee I'm glad I didn't buy those gold ingots, that were being spruked for the pending end of the world as the only form of currency.

I might stick to property, seems to withstand most end of the worlds.

Yeah buy some Gold Coast property. The bubble has popped there by >15%.
Can't come down anymore, hey?

 

[pieman]

Yeah buy some Gold Coast property. The bubble has popped there by >15%.
Can't come down anymore, hey?

GC will probably come down more as its a boom and bust market.
Personally I'd never go near that stuff, perferring inner bayside Melbourne which has seen at worst a 5% slide in 12 months.
Nothing on the near 10% drop in 3 DAYS for silver.

Plus it harder to leverage up in bullion. How do you go about getting a 95% lend on a kg of gold? Bit hard isnt it, while with property you maybe able to get that money from a bank or at least an 80% lend.
As you know leverage makes big inroads on your investment. I'd rather have 1m of RE on an 80% lend than 200k of gold paid for in cash as a 10% gain on property will "make" you 100k, 10% on gold is 20k. Add to this the willingness of the governement to support at all costs (as seen in 2009) the property market and you have a clear winner.

Plus you can live in it.

 

[StefanA]

GC will probably come down more as its a boom and bust market.
Personally I'd never go near that stuff, perferring inner bayside Melbourne which has seen at worst a 5% slide in 12 months.
Nothing on the near 10% drop in 3 DAYS for silver.

Plus it harder to leverage up in bullion. How do you go about getting a 95% lend on a kg of gold? Bit hard isnt it, while with property you maybe able to get that money from a bank or at least an 80% lend.

well great, go and borrow 95% or 80% or whatever you can get, and buy a house in inner bayside this week, then sit around and wait more than 3 days to stop losing money.

As you know leverage makes big inroads on your investment. I'd rather have 1m of RE on an 80% lend than 200k of gold paid for in cash as a 10% gain on property will "make" you 100k, 10% on gold is 20k. Add to this the willingness of the governement to support at all costs (as seen in 2009) the property market and you have a clear winner.

Plus you can live in it.

there's ways to leverage gold and silver, but I suggest you stick to what you know.