invitation to study
Happy Australia Day all. Thanks for the welcome. Lets comare notes and share information.
Relative to real local wages (adjusted for inflation) and to the broader Melbourne median over the last 20 years, Frankston is still incredibly cheap. Far from being at an all time high, it is actually at a secular low, this is a classic case of a suburb that is mispriced. And like Buffett, we all love mispricings!
I am an investor, I am not a salesman or advocate. My/our econometric modelling suggested we buy Frankston late in 2006. I arrived in North Frankston and was shocked. I had contracted to buy several houses sight unseen and the place looked a lot better from Google Earth. I was silent on the drive home to the city, thinking "what have i done, soem of the locals look dangerous" But finally I had faith in our research and went ahead and bought even more.
In real estate (as opposed to stocks) one should not argue with econometric modelling. Listen to the market: Like a doctor attending to an injured patient in the middle of a riot, ignore the noise and distraction around you and concentrate on the real work you need to urgently do.
Uninformed, self-interested real estate agents have destroyed more investors than war and pestilence. Totally disregard what they say unless they have been buying for their own portfolios recently with their own money. Few of the agents selling houses in Frankie are investors. It's much the same around Australia. This is an industry that is crying out for more regulation, not to mention talent.
I have met a very small minority of good agents. The rest have no loyalty to their clients and would sell their own grandmothers if they could. Most leave the industry after a few years. The same with a few cowboy conveyancers in the local area. Drunk on their own power or deluded by their ADHD, they may not have your best interests at heart. So do take the time to shop around for good people. And be aware that even good people change.....when they need some cash, some naughty agents may underquote to get a quick sale. So many battlers in North Frankie sold prematurely listening to slick, uninformed agents. It's always the vulnerable in society who suffer.
For me, it was the number crunching that attracted me to Frankie. All the other stuff you folks mentioned (marina, new highway etc) has been a sweet, happy, delightful bonus. Most of the North Frankie portfolio was bought for around $180k each, around 9 months ago. Rejected an offer of $256k for one last week as there is much, much more to come. This is just the beginning. Most of my stuff is in Frankston and also Seaford and more recently Carrum Downs. Should have bought more in North Frankston.
Folks do your own work, thats the best way to invest safely. Exchange info if you have something valuable to share. Of course, make disclosures if you have vested interests. Never never rely on what agents say unless they are buyers themselves. Tis the same with the minnows of the stock market - never listen to what the directors say, only pay attention when they are using their own cash to buy or sell stocks.
My pet project right now is to get some boffins working on mispriced property overseas. Belgium, Germany. Not the USA, not just yet. But soon.