RBA Chief Unworried About House Prices: No bubble= Lower Interest Rates

[hobo-jo]

Rather than get absorbed by what you read in the newspapers, you need to spend time studying economic cycles over the past century. Pin a few long term historical charts to your bedroom wall. Look at them everyday.

Is there really the need for constant belittlement meconium?

Flat earth brigade, you were in nappies when x happened, you get your views from mainstream news sources, etc?

I've been studying cycles, economics, investments & finance for the last 4-5 years and have been heavily invested in Silver and Gold for the last 3.

I don't need preprinted charts to put on my walls because I'm looking at the raw data and drawing/analysing many of my own:

e.g.
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/03/goldoil-and-silveroil-ratios-then-and.html
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/02/australian-housing-priced-in-gold-and.html
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/01/silver-eagle-sales-vs-silver-price-2003.html
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/01/silver-bull-market-70s-vs-today.html

And if you want to talk charts/cycles why don't you look up the Dow:Gold chart over the last 100 years and explain to me what you think is coming next (in the short term) based on history...

 

[Aaron Sice]

And if you want to talk charts/cycles why don't you look up the Dow:Gold chart over the last 100 years and explain to me what you think is coming next (in the short term) based on history...

out of interest, where would i find that?

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Is there really the need for constant belittlement meconium?

Flat earth brigade, you were in nappies when x happened, you get your views from mainstream news sources, etc?

I've been studying cycles, economics, investments & finance for the last 4-5 years and have been heavily invested in Silver and Gold for the last 3.

And if you want to talk charts/cycles why don't you look up the Dow:Gold chart over the last 100 years and explain to me what you think is coming next (in the short term) based on history...

hobo-jo, i suggest just ignoring meconium. His posts have a frantic rant to them.

 

[meconium]

I don't mean to offend or insult anyone. I apologize unreservedly for any hurt feelings.

I just think that anything that goes up 6 fold in a decade is headed for a fall. And that is how Gold will end up........those who got in early will do just fine, those who arrive late will get badly hurt.

No doubt gold will edge up a little more as the mums and dad's who don't know better pile into what is going to be an almighty prang. This is 1979 all over again, complete with middle eastern crises and fleeing despots. But inflation today is a lot less than what it was in 1979. Hardly a bullish signal for the gold-buying camp.

Gold is a huge bubble. One would have to be as blind as a welders dog not to see it. If property rose up 6 fold in a decade we'd all be selling.......

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

If you read the title page of this website, it says "Somersoft Property Investors Forum", there is no mention of "Traders Forum" or "Get Rich Quick in Property" or "Lets Buy Bullion".

Most people who come here are no doubt very careful with their money and are interested in property investment, not speculation or in get-rich-quick schemes. Websites like Hotcopper etc are where speculators dream about Gold reaching $10,000 an ounce and the Dow topping 30,000.

I follow the markets quite a bit. Yes, gold and silver may edge up a bit. As they did in 1979. And what happened afterwards? Those who got in at the top got badly burnt. .

mate you just dont get it, some asset classes lend themselves more to trading than others.

Property is very illiquid and with high entry and exit costs, this means that property has to be treated from an investment perspective.

Gold and its offshoots (such as gold shares) are both liquid (depending on the size of the underlying company) and with low entry/exit costs. This provides an efficient trading environment.

Yes Somersoft is a property investment site. But that does not mean that its is always a good time to buy property or always hold property.

You seem to go beserk whenever someone highlights that there may be better opportuntities to make money than residential property at this point in time.

At the end of the day i am interested in making money. Property is one of the mechanisms i use to create that money. But that does not mean that i will have full exposure to property at all points in time.

By understanding more than one asset class i can maintain a better positive velocity in wealth creation through moving between different asset classes.

For the record i have no exposure to gold or gold shares.

Over and out Meconium i wont be responding to further commentary by you on this thread.

 

[hobo-jo]

out of interest, where would i find that?

Attached is one of the simplest/best I've seen or take your pick
http://www.google.com.au/images?q=d...&source=og&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wi&biw=1920&bih=992

 

[meconium]

Attached is one of the simplest/best I've seen or take your pick
http://www.google.com.au/images?q=d...&source=og&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wi&biw=1920&bih=992

Don't overcomplicate what should be a simple chart. We aren't interested in the plethora of Gold vs Dow or Gold vs Arctic Temperature charts. Be honest and show us Gold in US$ going back to at least 1970. And, if you are really kind, how about another chart of gold, adjusted for inflation?

These two charts will easily show us that gold has gone up 6 fold in a decade - behaving pretty much as it did from 1970-1979.

The present situation is not sustainable. We are close to the top and I'd call it a bubble. Great for those who got in early. Well done if you are one of them.

I'd call property a bubble if it went up 6 fold in a decade - fortunately it hasn't.

Intrinsic, yes, its nice that gold is a liquid asset. But most mum and dad investors are into investing for the long term. They rarely need to liquidate their assets overnight. Buying property (this is a property forum, lets not forget that) is a lot safer than buying into a bubble that is the current gold price.

Sorry if that offends anyone.

 

[hobo-jo]

Don't overcomplicate what should be a simple chart. We aren't interested in the plethora of Gold vs Dow chart. Show us Gold in US$ going back to at least 1970. How about another chart of gold, adjusted for inflation?

These two charts will easily show us that gold has gone up 6 fold in a decade - behaving pretty much as it did from 1970-1979.

So first you say to look into cycle theory, now you say you're not interested.

I've posted the inflation adjusted charts before, e.g. 300 years:
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/FreeGoldSilverSSCPI.php

Gold went up a multiple of 24x from it's 1970 low to the peak in 1980.

If Gold acts like it did over that decade we will see around $6000-$7000 Gold.

You're a character meconium, I'll give you that. You're going to turn everyone here into a Gold bug if you keep telling us all about how this decade will play out like the 1970s, we've still got another 400% left to run from today's price to see it play out the same!

 

[meconium]

we will see around $6000-$7000 Gold.

I'm too shocked to even laugh. Back in the late 90s, day traders much like yourself were proclaiming that the Dow would reach 30,000 within a couple of years. Keep on dreaming pal. If you talk-up gold for long enough, it might just do as you say.......and then collapse into a spiral that will last decades. Those who got in early (ie. you) will do very nicely. Mum and Dad investors will be hurt. Nice one mate. Really decent of you to try to herd ordinary mom n pop investors into the gamble that is the gold price, all the while claiming that housing is overvalued. You sure have motives of your own, don't you?

Speaking of charts......how about Gold vs the Number of Hairs on John Howards head?

 

[hobo-jo]

Nice selective quoting there meconium, but you're the one that suggested Gold was acting like the 1970s bull market, I was simply pointing out how high it would have to go to reach the same level of growth

 

[Chomp]

Keep it going this is "Gold"

Sorry

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

Back in the late 90s, day traders much like yourself were proclaiming that the Dow would reach 30,000 within a couple of years.

Two guys write a book espousing that theory and suddenly it's all day traders?

 

[meconium]

Two guys write a book espousing that theory and suddenly it's all day traders?

Day traders aka Speculators = Bubble Creators. They all have one thing common that they regularly say: "This time it is different."

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

You sure do know a lot about people you've never met in your life.

P.S. I'm not a day trader.

 

[meconium]

You sure do know a lot about people you've never met in your life.

P.S. I'm not a day trader.

I don't know Hobo Jo personally. Nor do I wish to hurt his feelings. Time will tell who is right. This much is certain: bubbles don't pop instantly and just when you think they are ready to pop, they get bigger and bigger. I expect the madness to continue for a few more months.

Nevertheless, all bubbles do deflate eventually. No doubt about it. But sadly, from the Tulip and South Sea Bubbles onward, its the gullible mums and dads who get hurt the most. Those who got in early, like our pal Hobo, do rather well.

Talk of Dow 30,000 or Gold at US$5,000 anytime soon is nonsense. Hobo has an agenda of his own by pumping up gold.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

As long as everyone's keeping it civil, and playing the ball rather than the man, I'm all for the airing of opposing opinions. Argue it out sensibly.

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

Hobo has an agenda of his own by pumping up gold.

Do you see the irony in you claiming Hobo Jo has an agenda when you post all about how property is the greatest thing since sliced bread and how it's a much better investment than any other asset class?

I also like property, but I don't need to sling low blows at anyone who doesn't happen to agree with me, then repeatedly claim I'm not trying to upset anyone by repeatedly slinging said low blows.

 

[meconium]

As long as everyone's keeping it civil, and playing the ball rather than the man, I'm all for the airing of opposing opinions. Argue it out sensibly.

The one thing I want to reiterate is that I am not some kind of insane property bull. There is plenty of junk property for sale in most cities that I'd rather not buy because it may well be going sideways for years. Some Mum and Dad investors can tolerate sideways movements in property, given the tax benefits of owning an IP. But it's not for me.

But when people like Hobo Jo come here telling us that gold is what Mums and Dads need to "invest" in (because property is going to crash!) I really get upset. Why? Because my own mum was suckered in by this sort of crowd following behavior back in 1979, the last time gold rose to a major new high. She was conned into buying at the very top and paid a terrible price for listening to people around her.......no doubt well-meaning but clueless people, just like Hobo Jo. People, incidentally, who got in early.

Hobo Jo, I don't mean to offend or insult you. Just think a little bit before encouraging people to speculate in bullion. It's totally different from buying an IP.

This is a property forum. Diversity is good but lets stick to property. Maybe places like www.hotcopper.com might just be your thing if you are into spec shares, bullion, water powered cars, olive groves, tree plantations, ostrich farms etc.......lots of fellow speculators there to keep you company and share ideas and schemes.

Very kind of you to warn us about the impending crash in property Hobo. Now we know, thanks to you, its time to move on.......

 

[profit]

These two charts will easily show us that gold has gone up 6 fold in a decade - behaving pretty much as it did from 1970-1979.

Gold went up a multiple of 24x from it's 1970 low to the peak in 1980.

If Gold acts like it did over that decade we will see around $6000-$7000 Gold.

I'm too shocked to even laugh.

Nice selective quoting there meconium

Quoted for emphasis. Good one meconium

 

[meconium]

Quoted for emphasis. Good one meconium

Keep on believing that trees can grow into the sky, its not for me to dissuade you. I won't dare guess where the madness will end. But madness it is, to be sure - buying gold at these crazy prices is not investing, its gambling. Feel free to sell all your possessions and have a go if you truly believe in the permanently upward trajectory of Au. Or what the heck....drive up to the casino and have a go at Blackjack? People have made millions playing it. Duh!