Hi Guys,
Well, based on Shadow's linked outlook here:
http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf
It looks like a toss-up now between whether the RBA goes 75bp or 100bp next month. 50bp is a dead cert, and 75bp looks like being almost a given. The only question is whether they go a full 100bp again or not.
The media is starting to pick up on it too, but are a bit slow on their probability reporting still thinking its only 2/3 chance. The link above has it more like a 90% prob today.
Here's some media reporting:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/imf-snub-for-rudd-20081107-5jq6.html
Cheers,
Michael
Well, based on Shadow's linked outlook here:
http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf
It looks like a toss-up now between whether the RBA goes 75bp or 100bp next month. 50bp is a dead cert, and 75bp looks like being almost a given. The only question is whether they go a full 100bp again or not.
The media is starting to pick up on it too, but are a bit slow on their probability reporting still thinking its only 2/3 chance. The link above has it more like a 90% prob today.
Here's some media reporting:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/imf-snub-for-rudd-20081107-5jq6.html
So, what's your call? 75 or 100bp? Or are you still in the conservative 50bp camp? Please tell me you're not locking rates at the moment...SMH said:Investors are betting the Reserve Bank is far from done with its interest rate cuts. They are pricing in a two-in-three chance that the RBA will knock rates down another full percentage point to 4.25% when its board next meets on December 2.
Such a move would bring to 300 basis points in cuts in just four meetings, following the 25 basis point reduction in September, 100 basis points in October, and 75 basis points on Melbourne Cup Day this week.
Cheers,
Michael