Real estate industry sounding different recently

[bluestorm]

I'm getting the distinct impression that the real estate industry is starting to finally change it's tune Australia wide, as markets cool from the Jul/Aug peak, and the spring peak property season is more disappointing that they expected. The story below is from SA, but similar ones are starting to appear in VIC, QLD, NSW, WA, etc.

SA - Housing boom over as values fall
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/housing-boom-over-as-values-fall/story-e6frea6u-1225969550928

"And the real estate industry says the past decade's price boom - averaging an increase of almost 20 per cent a year - is over."

"There is no speculation in the market and vendors have to be competitive with their pricing,'' he said."
Looks like the Real Estate expert let the cat out of the bag their. so it was speculation, not market fundamentals that boomed prices.

 

[whatever123]

``We are not quite sure why this is the case but I believe there is some pent-up demand which will come through in the first half of next year.''

I'd say the demand they expected has not become pent up demand but was actually ''brought forward'' demand that occurred when they tripled the FHOG

 

[Propertunity]

Adelaide has been running flat (falling in real terms) for the past 6 months. Any more old "news" you'd like to post?

 

[andrew_de_a]

Bluestorm, I'm an agent and I have been the saying the market has dropped (now flat) openly to vendors/sellers for the last 6 months in my area.

 

[wylie]

Brisbane market has been flat or dropping slightly for (I guess) more than six months. There are plenty of posts on SS about the same in other areas.

 

[lizzie]

I'd say the demand they expected has not become pent up demand but was actually ''brought forward'' demand that occurred when they tripled the FHOG

totally agree. will stagnate for a few years to recover from the bought forward demand ... imo

newcastle peaked around 6 months ago - and has been relatively flat since. great time to buy due to buyers market and bargining power, as long as yields stack up and cover the mortgage.

 

[bluestorm]

Bluestorm, I'm an agent and I have been the saying the market has dropped (now flat) openly to vendors/sellers for the last 6 months in my area.

Sorry, I must have been reading a different Somersoft forum, and listening the different agents and real estate bodies. Because the ones I've heard have all stated that the market would be good in the spring peak market season.

Also, unlike shares (where the DOW can have a flash crash of 1000 points in 10mins), the property market is a large and slow ship to turn. I believe we are seen the beginning of a correction that will continue into 2011/2012.

totally agree. will stagnate for a few years to recover from the bought forward demand ... imo

I think we agree on this. At best, it will be a stagnate market. But my argument is that this time, a market that starts off stagnate or drops slightly, would ultimately fall, as negatively geared investors, and baby boomers sell.

 

[wylie]

Sorry, I must have been reading a different Somersoft forum, and listening the different agents and real estate bodies. Because the ones I've heard have all stated that the market would be good in the spring peak market season.

Really???

I do believe you are indeed living in a parallel universe if you have gleaned this from the forum.

 

[Propertunity]

Sorry, I must have been reading a different Somersoft forum,

You'll have to stop speed reading then and pay more attention.

and listening the different agents and real estate bodies. Because the ones I've heard have all stated that the market would be good in the spring peak market season.

That's what you get for reading the popular media - it's for the sheep you know.

Also, unlike shares (where the DOW can have a flash crash of 1000 points in 10mins), the property market is a large and slow ship to turn. I believe we are seen the beginning of a correction that will continue into 2011/2012.

Now your underwear is showing. It was obvious from the beginning that you were trying to push the "shares are better than property barrel". It's a bit careless to let that slip.

The reality of course is that you should have both shares & property to have a balanced investment portfolio. Many of us own shares and have nothing against them. Heck, they make (and have made) me a lot of money.

You need to broaden your mind.

At best, it will be a stagnate market. But my argument is that this time, a market that starts off stagnate or drops slightly, would ultimately fall, as negatively geared investors, and baby boomers sell.

What a load of BS. There is no one "market". There are many markets even in the same town, let alone the nation.

There will be areas that flat-line, there will be areas that grow a little, there will be areas that grow a lot, and there will be other areas that fall.....same as shares.

You need to get more exposure to various markets before you come on here espousing your "beliefs" IMO.

 

[BayView]

You'll never hear the R/E industry talk down property.

The closest you'll ever get to them admitting the market is flat is; "it's a buyer's market".

 

[wylie]

You'll never hear the R/E industry talk down property.

The closest you'll ever get to them admitting the market is flat is; "it's a buyer's market".

I don't think there is anything wrong with them NOT talking down property. It is their income, after all. A bit like expecting a Harvey Norman salesman talk you out of buying the couch and washing machine you have come into the store to buy. It just ain't gonna happen.

People only interact with agents because they are looking to buy or checking out what prices are like. People SEEK the agent.

And if admitting the market is flat or "it's a buyers market" is true, so I don't see a problem with them saying that.

If the market is flat or stagnant and they said it was rising, you would not be happy, so why not be happy that they are telling it like it is?

 

[evand]

I don't think there is anything wrong with them NOT talking down property. It is their income, after all. A bit like expecting a Harvey Norman salesman talk you out of buying the couch and washing machine you have come into the store to buy. It just ain't gonna happen.

Harvey Norman always talks down the electronics industry. If its dead, he says its dead. And margins have srunk. I wish he'd stop it, my HN shares arent doing great.

People only interact with agents because they are looking to buy or checking out what prices are like. People SEEK the agent.

No kidding. Is that why they door knock, drop off flyers, and telemarket the public. Ist called prospecting. Or in the RE industry 'farming'

And if admitting the market is flat or "it's a buyers market" is true, so I don't see a problem with them saying that.

If the market is flat or stagnant and they said it was rising, you would not be happy, so why not be happy that they are telling it like it is?

they say 'property is along term purchase instead' LOL what a joke they are.

 

[wylie]

I'm talking about the salesman in the shop. I have never heard them say "don't buy that fridge, can you afford it?"

And real estate salesman can leaflet drop all they like. If someone is not wanting to buy a house or an IP, they will never come into contact with one. I have NEVER had an agent doorknock me.

 

[urban cowboy]

You'll never hear the R/E industry talk down property.

The closest you'll ever get to them admitting the market is flat is; "it's a buyer's market".

search my posts from a couple of weeks ago - the property market around Brisbane is in trouble now and will stay that way for a while.

try this - http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=732592#post732592

I am not averse to talking down property!! never have been - i'll give it to you straight at any time...good or bad.

 

[BayView]

I don't think there is anything wrong with them NOT talking down property. It is their income, after all. A bit like expecting a Harvey Norman salesman talk you out of buying the couch and washing machine you have come into the store to buy. It just ain't gonna happen.

People only interact with agents because they are looking to buy or checking out what prices are like. People SEEK the agent.

And if admitting the market is flat or "it's a buyers market" is true, so I don't see a problem with them saying that.

If the market is flat or stagnant and they said it was rising, you would not be happy, so why not be happy that they are telling it like it is?

I'm not happy or unhappy when they "tell it like it is".

I was simply stating a fact of the nature of the beast; they always talk it up.

In reality; they never tell it like it is; it's all BS and hype from them. They are probably the biggest liars on earth.

I think it's quite funny actually. You know...a head shake and snigger moment.

 

[Aaron Sice]

wait!

the property boom is over?

when did this happen?

 

[wylie]

I'm not happy or unhappy when they "tell it like it is".

I was simply stating a fact of the nature of the beast; they always talk it up.

In reality; they never tell it like it is; it's all BS and hype from them. They are probably the biggest liars on earth.

I think it's quite funny actually. You know...a head shake and snigger moment.

I don't find this at all. I will add that most local agents know me quite well through my mother having been a local agent.

I will also add that of the many agents I have dealt with over the past two months whilst looking, phoning and inspecting places for my son, only ONE agent was a bit slimy and did lie to me. However, when I pointed out that he had "led me along regarding price" he pointed out that he hadn't lied but it was all in the way the discussion went. For me, a lie by another name is still a lie, and I would NEVER call him again. He probably doesn't know that he has shot himself in the foot.

But the other agents were fine, and either didn't have much to say at all, or told it "like it is", warts and all.... and one of the units we inspected had a LOT of hidden warts. It was all upfront from the initial phone call.

The agent we bought from was forthright, honest and just a really nice chap. I will call him when my next son is looking.

 

[Luv2Travel]

They are probably the biggest liars on earth.

Really? One of the people I've had the most problems with was a few years ago, who spun so much B.S. to me about my car, thinking I was a gullible female, was a mechanic. I'm not gullible and I am not soft when it comes to the crunch, so it just ended up in him having a nice big unpaid account and a detailed letter as to why it wasn't being paid. He never persued it, so must have known what he was telling me was porkies, thinking he could try and milk me for as much $$ as he could, and no point going me.

Good and bad in every industry...

 

[BayView]

Really? One of the people I've had the most problems with was a few years ago, who spun so much B.S. to me about my car, thinking I was a gullible female, was a mechanic. I'm not gullible and I am not soft when it comes to the crunch, so it just ended up in him having a nice big unpaid account and a detailed letter as to why it wasn't being paid. He never persued it, so must have known what he was telling me was porkies, thinking he could try and milk me for as much $$ as he could, and no point going me.

Good and bad in every industry...

I agree; good and bad in every industry. No argument there.

As I said; "probably the worst".

I think in order of the most dodgy and disliked in society (as perceived by the general public), the worst 3 are Pollies, r/e agents and second hand car dealers?

I'm sure lawyers and mechanics are down there as well.

I know you are having a go at me, and that's ok; but we (our workshop) are one of the honest ones.

I can sleep at night.

You would be amazed at how often we talk to an uneducated car owner (male and female) about the problems with their car (usually from lack of maintenance due to no education about it), and they return with a list of things that one of their slightly more educated friends or relatives gives them as to what might be the cause of the problem/s.

Obviously, they have not believed the news we provide, and have gone off for a second opinion. About here, we feel like saying "well, if they know so much about it, why don't they fix it for you?".....

Of course; we don't say that; we are polite, courteous and professional.

The other thing that frequently happens is the customer wants their car fixed for the smallest amount of money possible.

This is extremely limiting for us - we can only do patch-up jobs in this situation, instead of fixing the real cause of the problem. All mechanics would experience this. The broke car owner. Too much car and not enough income.

Of course; the work done is not really the proper solution, and the car eventually fails again. The customer bleats; "why didn't you fix the car?".

And so on.

We had a car a few weeks ago; Mum with 3 kids in tow, in for a service. We discovered that she had no front brakes - I'm talking dangerous to drive.

We called her up to tell her she really needed them done now, and she didn't believe us. She thought it was a scam no doubt; to get here to spend more money.

So, we said; "we are not doing any work on this car if you don't get the brakes fixed".

She didn't ok the the brakes, and we stopped work on the car. Haven't seen her since...I hope the kids are still alive.

 

[Luv2Travel]

I think in order of the most dodgy and disliked in society (as perceived by the general public), the worst 3 are Pollies, r/e agents and second hand car dealers?

I didn't think you were one of the masses?

I know you are having a go at me, and that's ok; but we (our workshop) are one of the honest ones.

Not you personally, was just stating a point. In my experience, the dodgiest people have been tradies and that mechanic I mentioned.

I can sleep at night.

I'm pleased to hear you're one of the honest ones. But to be honest, I think finding a good reliable honest mechanic is like winning the lottery. That is why I got sick of my car breaking down all the time, and trying to find a good one in a convenient location and just bought a new car and has been worth every cent!

The other thing that frequently happens is the customer wants their car fixed for the smallest amount of money possible.

As someone who works in the service industry myself, I can appreciate that comment. I can assure you however my situation was nothing to do with me being unreasonable.

I would honestly like to know why people have such an issue with real estate agents. As you said the general public don't like them, but why? Is this because the general public are dumb, lazy and rely on what they say because they don't want to do any homework themselves? Is it because when they are a purchaser they expect the vendor's agent to also work as a free buyers agent for themself? I honestly don't get it. I've never been "screwed over" by one (although still early in the game), but then again I do my own reasearch and stand my ground.