Regional NSW this cycle

luce.rocks

luce.rocks

Last cycle it seemed Sydney stayed hotter for longer before the ripple spread out and people started looking to regional centers out of desperation/fear of missing out.

Do you think there's enough craziness in the Sydney market this time around to prompt the same ripple effect for regional centers? I'm not sure. It feels like things are slowing down before there's enough momentum to reach the rest of NSW.

Thoughts?
 
The agent we bought off at north arm cove ( tea gardens ) says it takes about 18 months from sydney moving till their area moves . So that was around 9 months ago .

Every cycle is different .

If you want to see how your area is going , watch what is happening closely .

You will see volumes increasing for a while before prices tic up .

Cliff
 
luce.rocks said:
Last cycle it seemed Sydney stayed hotter for longer before the ripple spread out and people started looking to regional centers out of desperation/fear of missing out.

Do you think there's enough craziness in the Sydney market this time around to prompt the same ripple effect for regional centers? I'm not sure. It feels like things are slowing down before there's enough momentum to reach the rest of NSW.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I have been wondering the same thing - do I buy in an area which is currently slow and assume it will start to move in the next 6-12 months N, S, and W, or will the ripple fade before it moves far from Sydney. How is the economy compared to last time to fuel the ripple? I do recall people talking about watching the ripple move up the coast, such as Cliff's famous Rocky thread on QLD. :D
 
Ripple? It's going to be a crashing wave that washes over Port Macquarie. I'd be buying there. I'm thinking an apartment near the main beach - 3 bedder, ideally. One with a pool and all that stuff. Hey, I know one of them that is for sale...
 
I remember the debate that went on here in the aftermath of sydney and Brisbane booming last time .

Why would you buy in ........... Prices never go up ...... The regionals are different ..... Etc

When you've been around long enough you gain the confidence to buy when no one else is . You pick up better bargains at that stage , but we made very good money last cycle by picking places that were starting to move . At that stage there's less risk but also less profit .

Last cycle we were buying as the moves were starting . This cycle we bought earlier.

Cliff
 
looks like a few cheering for Bathurst/Orange area.

there are evident of ripple effects felt in those areas already such as Central Coast, South Coast and Western NSW to a degree

wonder people's take on which of the 3 will feel a bigger vibe in the days to come?
 
Yes I believe this will happen up and down the coast. To what degree and when is the question I would love to know too....
 
It's already moved through Port Mac - summer saw a jump of up to 40k on some values (approx 10%) especially houses.

While the highway is bringing in some workers, Essential Energy is busy letting them go at a rate of a few a week. Also several manufacturers and many small businesses closing down. At the moment seems a bit of a pause until budget and a determination of what will happen with various centrelink payments - won't affect top end of market too much but anything lower it could have a strong downward effect (goes for anywhere on the coast).

The one positive for the area is the new Uni - however they're planning mostly on campus accommodation, and a lot of locals are already trying to position for any jobs available there. (sorry and Kmart - will bring a number of retail jobs).
 
I think it's going to take a while to filter through this time.

Regionals were overdone last cycle in my opinion. When you've got regional, non mining towns of under 3000 people experiencing better 7-10 year growth than some of the best Sydney suburbs there's a problem somewhere.

Sydney might be primed to go again but there's just not the money in the regional (non mining) areas for prices to go much higher in the short term.

In a lot of areas the "correction" was so minor that it didn't help affordability at all.

RC
 
There has got to be a fair percentage of those experiencing the Syd boom to take the plunge, sell up and move to the bush getting a better house with maybe acres etc and enjoy the quieter lifestyle.

I see that as being at least 50% of the price rises in regionals, along with general growth.

Not restricted to personal movement either. Larger regionals also experiencing business influx due to technology advances allowing more "remote" locations as viable.

Then it all feeds into.......
 
The Fence said:
There has got to be a fair percentage of those experiencing the Syd boom to take the plunge, sell up and move to the bush getting a better house with maybe acres etc and enjoy the quieter lifestyle.

I see that as being at least 50% of the price rises in regionals, along with general growth.

Not restricted to personal movement either. Larger regionals also experiencing business influx due to technology advances allowing more "remote" locations as viable.

Then it all feeds into.......
Click to expand...

Good point.

Also a combination of the above.

I'm hearing of more and more people moving to the country for the lifestyle, still working in Sydney, but being able to work from home.

They fly to Sydney, spend a couple of days at work and then work from home the rest of the week.
Plenty of part time farmers that work two weeks in Sydney (tradesman etc) and then two weeks on the farm.

"City People" are to the country, what the Chinese buyers are to the city.

RC
 
Im seeing some properties here on the central coast being taken off the market
because they are not meeting owners expectations.

Been to a few open houses recently, plenty of people attending, made a few offers only to have them taken off the market until it improves.
CC was hot for a while but seems to have fallen back.
Still anything cheap is being snapped up under 240,000
 
Reality Cheque said:
Plenty of part time farmers that work two weeks in Sydney (tradesman etc) and then two weeks on the farm.
Click to expand...

I did this for many years, 2 weeks on the Central Coast and 4 or 5 days off at home in the bush to get sanity back and peace & quiet.

Worked out good until the coast just got too crazy traffic wise etc.
Plus Im a bit old for doing that now.
Now we just go to the coast when we want a swim or shopping etc.
Handy to Sydney and pretty coastline.
Eying off one of our IP's in Killarney Vale as a possible hang out for a few years down the track.

Re: nww comment on CC coming off the boil.
That's news to me, we currently have people falling over themselves to get a hold on an IP we have for sale.
In our areas of interest, hardly any sales going thru with a 2 in front.
$320k is the new bottom end.
 
I agree with The Fence. North gosford where we have a house is still very hot. Rents are still going up there too, which is apleasant surprise at this point in the cycle. The one we have in the northern suburbs seems to be doing well too. Hope it continues! Port stephens ( where I live) is only just picking up now, however, if anyone is looking for somewhere that is still near the bottom of the market :)
Cheers Ali
 
ali said:
Port stephens ( where I live) is only just picking up now, however, if anyone is looking for somewhere that is still near the bottom of the market :)
Cheers Ali
Click to expand...

Hi Ali

Where abouts ? We bought a weekend at north arm cove around 18 months ago . Market was dead then . Several places on the market for several years with major price decreases.

Properties have been turning over since then , but no sign of price increases .

The week we settled , there was an article of the front page of the AFR saying port Stephens had the highest delinquency rate of mortgages in Australia ...

Cliff
 
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