Relax, no int rise iminent.
- Thread starter Sunfish
- Start date
Yes 'n' no! We don't want our ex rate to rise, as it would if we increased int rates. The oil price will cool activity enough, methinks.Glebe said:
Howard's "economic miracle" only happened because the $A drifted around US$.50 for ages (ask Pitt St for details) Don't know about you but I didn't enjoy those ex rates. Personally, I'd be happy with parity
In the eyes of the world we are good at digging holes, and we have dug some big ones, so as the world price of metals and coal rise so does our dollar. How can the RBA compound that effect?
Just a mug mining speculator!!!!
I dont enjoy definitive comments - try to keep an open mind - life is never that simple...
No need for original thought on this stuff, hope this helps...
+ve's
Appreciation of the AUD => Decrease in the relative cost of M vs domestic G+S (SR) + Decreased DSR => Decreased CAD + Decreased value of foreign debt => Increased living stds + Decreased inflation
-ve's
Appreciation of the AUD => Increase in the relative cost of M vs domestic G+S + Increased K outflow (LR or assume perfect K mobility for SR outflows) => LR decrease in competitiveness + Decrease in foreign investment => Increased CAD + Increased structural unemployment (due to X restructures)
Usual economists disclaimers apply - the senior economist from BIS commented to the SMH that he doesnt remember any mistakes he has made (would need to clarify that - if someone has last Sat SMH that would be great)
No need for original thought on this stuff, hope this helps...
+ve's
Appreciation of the AUD => Decrease in the relative cost of M vs domestic G+S (SR) + Decreased DSR => Decreased CAD + Decreased value of foreign debt => Increased living stds + Decreased inflation
-ve's
Appreciation of the AUD => Increase in the relative cost of M vs domestic G+S + Increased K outflow (LR or assume perfect K mobility for SR outflows) => LR decrease in competitiveness + Decrease in foreign investment => Increased CAD + Increased structural unemployment (due to X restructures)
Usual economists disclaimers apply - the senior economist from BIS commented to the SMH that he doesnt remember any mistakes he has made (would need to clarify that - if someone has last Sat SMH that would be great)
It's always good to look at the old posts in this site,when does everyone
think the aussie dollar will equal the US dollar in face value..willair..
That's really weird!
I was just this minute re-reading some old posts looking for when I predicted parity with the USD and that thread was one I found. When I saw it in "new posts" I thought I must have re-posted it.
That was nearly four years ago when others were predicting a fall to 55c. Pity that Acey has left us. pr1ckley so 'n so, but who am I to talk.
This is the search I did:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/search.php?searchid=994548
I was just this minute re-reading some old posts looking for when I predicted parity with the USD and that thread was one I found. When I saw it in "new posts" I thought I must have re-posted it.
That was nearly four years ago when others were predicting a fall to 55c. Pity that Acey has left us. pr1ckley so 'n so, but who am I to talk.
This is the search I did:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/search.php?searchid=994548
. Pity that Acey has left us. pr1ckley so 'n so, but who am I to talk.
What did happen to Acey?
Hehe, you should make this into a tag line, it's funny.
Who said "no int rise iminent" ?
Not sure that my bank agrees with you. Fixed rates to increase a bit tomorrow I have heard.
Not sure that my bank agrees with you. Fixed rates to increase a bit tomorrow I have heard.
Oh God ! I'm cracking up laughing here !! Must have been about 2004 since I last came on here aswell !! Trust me to pick a 2004 post to comment on !!Well the post was started in 2004, so it was probably applicable then!
Reminder to self: "Read the date of the post carefully"
Dont' want to be a party pooper but...
*30 day bank bills at 7.50%
*one year swap rate rate at 7.95%.
*RBA cash rate at 7%.
The market has well and truly priced in further upward movement.
*30 day bank bills at 7.50%
*one year swap rate rate at 7.95%.
*RBA cash rate at 7%.
The market has well and truly priced in further upward movement.
Just gotta love some good jargon
So, who do you think had the drinking problem?
Doesn't matter if the RBA moves next week or not (I think they will, BTW).
Irrespective, the Bank's will move interest rates to cover the increasing cost of funds (today's Fin has a reasonable summary of why). The additional moves that CBA and others made after the election were about half of what they needed as they hoped the world would right itself. It hasn't. In fact it's got worse.
My punt - RBA goes .25% and over the short term the lenders will add similar amount.
Irrespective, the Bank's will move interest rates to cover the increasing cost of funds (today's Fin has a reasonable summary of why). The additional moves that CBA and others made after the election were about half of what they needed as they hoped the world would right itself. It hasn't. In fact it's got worse.
My punt - RBA goes .25% and over the short term the lenders will add similar amount.
